Nashville SC vs New York Red Bulls
Nashville edge New York in five-goal thriller
A late surge seals a narrow win for Nashville SC after a high-scoring encounter.
Nashville SC secured a 3-2 victory over New York Red Bulls in a match packed with drama and goals. Despite New York's early dominance with goals from J. Hall and R. Mosquera before the break, Nashville clawed back with two own goals benefiting them and a decisive strike from S. Surridge in stoppage time. Fipster's prediction of a home win was spot on, though the actual scoreline proved to be a much tighter affair than the anticipated 3-0.
Outcome probability
As the regular season nears its conclusion, Nashville SC look poised to deliver a commanding performance against New York Red Bulls. With a blend of solid defence and creative midfield play, Nashville aims to secure a comfortable win.
Match factors
Nashville's dominant home scoring form
Nashville averages 2.81 goals per home game with a 50% clean sheet rate, indicating strong offensive and defensive home performance
Nashville's recent scoring streak away from home
Nashville has scored in all last 5 away games, showing consistent goal threat even on the road
Nashville missing defender Owen Presthus
Presthus is confirmed out due to injury, potentially weakening Nashville's defensive depth
Nashville's attacking midfielders in strong form
Players like Mukhtar and Espinoza provide creative and goal-scoring threat, likely to exploit New York's defensive vulnerabilities
New York Red Bulls' limited attacking threat
No top scorers or assisters listed for New York, indicating a lack of key offensive players to challenge Nashville's defense
The context
This fixture is part of the 33rd round of the regular season. Historically, New York Red Bulls have had the upper hand in head-to-head meetings, but recent form and home advantage tilt the scales towards Nashville SC. Both teams will be eager to finish the season strongly, but Nashville's home scoring record stands out.
Key insights
- H
Hany Mukhtar
Nashville SC
Central to Nashville's attacking creativity and goal threat, contributing multiple goals and assists this season.
Major League Soccer 26/27Multiple goals and assists in recent matches, with match ratings up to 10.0
- C
Cristian Espinoza
Nashville SC
Consistent provider of assists and key passes, supporting Nashville's offensive play.
Major League Soccer 26/27Multiple assists in recent games, consistent match ratings around 7.0-8.6
- J
Jeisson Palacios
Nashville SC
Key in maintaining Nashville's defensive solidity with strong passing and high ratings.
Major League Soccer 26/27Consistently high ratings around 7.3-8.3, strong passing volume with 70+ passes in multiple matches
- B
Brian Schwake
Nashville SC
Reliable shot-stopper contributing to Nashville's clean sheet streaks at home.
Major League Soccer 26/27Strong goalkeeping ratings up to 8.6
Analysis
Nashville SC boasts an impressive average of 2.81 goals per home game and a 50% clean sheet rate, highlighting their balanced approach. Key players like Hany Mukhtar and Cristian Espinoza have been instrumental in creating and converting chances, while Jeisson Palacios and goalkeeper Brian Schwake provide defensive stability. Conversely, New York Red Bulls lack standout attacking threats this season, which could leave them vulnerable to Nashville's offensive pressure. The absence of defender Owen Presthus for Nashville is a slight concern, but their overall squad depth should compensate.
Key facts
- 1.Nashville SC averages 2.81 goals per home game with a 50% clean sheet rate this season.
- 2.New York Red Bulls have won 5 of 11 head-to-head matches against Nashville SC, who have won 2, with 4 draws.
- 3.The most probable fulltime scoreline is 3-0 in favour of Nashville SC, with a 22% chance.
- 4.Nashville SC has scored in each of their last 5 away games, showing consistent goal threat.
- 5.Nashville SC's Owen Presthus is confirmed out due to injury, affecting defensive depth.
- 6.Hany Mukhtar and Cristian Espinoza are key creative forces for Nashville SC this season.
- 7.New York Red Bulls lack standout scorers or assisters this season, limiting their attacking threat.
Prediction
Expect Nashville SC to take an early lead, reflected in the predicted 1-0 halftime scoreline, before extending their advantage to a 3-0 fulltime result. The match is likely to feature a few cards, with a total of four predicted, as New York Red Bulls attempt to disrupt Nashville's rhythm. Ultimately, Nashville's attacking midfielders and defensive solidity should secure a comfortable home victory.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Nashville SC
Away — New York Red Bulls
The verdict
In summary, Nashville SC's combination of home form, creative midfield play, and defensive resilience makes them strong favourites to claim a 3-0 win over New York Red Bulls. Fans can anticipate a confident performance that underscores Nashville's quality as the regular season draws to a close.
Prediction generated 29 Oct 2026, 02:37 UTC · Fipster Model v1.166
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Cowell
Missed Penalty
Kone
Yellow Card
Hall
Assist: Mehmeti
Harper
Mosquera
Assist: Cowell
Ruvalcaba
Yellow Card
Parker (OG)
Cowell
Corcoran
Yazbek
Bazán (OG)
Goal confirmed
Saad
Mosquera
Kone
Ruvalcaba
Surridge
Assist: Espinoza
Espinoza
Najar
Match Statistics
Nashville SC
4-3-3Starting XI
- 3M. WoledziD
- 4J. PalaciosD
- 7C. EspinozaF
- 8P. YazbekM
- 9S. SurridgeF
- 10H. MukhtarF
- 11E. SaadM
- 16M. CorcoranM
- 27R. Baker-WhitingD
- 31A. NajarD
- 99B. SchwakeG
Substitutes
- 1J. WillisG
- 2D. LovitzD
- 5J. MaherD
- 6B. AcostaM
- 14S. MohammedM
- 19A. MuylM
- 20E. TagsethM
- 22J. BauerD
- 41W. MadrigalF
New York Red Bulls
4-3-3Starting XI
- 3J. Marshall-RuttyD
- 7C. CowellF
- 11J. RuvalcabaM
- 14J. BazánD
- 15A. MehmetiM
- 16J. HallF
- 17C. HarperF
- 26T. ParkerD
- 34E. HorvathG
- 59D. PadelfordD
- 60S. KoneM
Substitutes
- 8D. RuízM
- 10E. ForsbergM
- 37M. SofoF
- 45C. FaelloD
- 56M. Dos SantosD
- 77J. McCarthyG
- 79R. MosqueraF
- 91M. JimenezF
Nashville SC
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Espinoza | F | 93 | 7.7 | — | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 1/2 |
| S. Surridge | F | 90 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 7 | 4 | 1 | 1/1 |
| M. Woledzi | D | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 2/2 |
| H. Mukhtar | F | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2/2 |
| B. Schwake | G | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Palacios | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Acosta | M | 23 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| W. Madrigal | F | 8 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Najar | D | 93 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | 3 | 2/3 |
| M. Corcoran | M | 67 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Saad | M | 82 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 4/6 |
| E. Tagseth | M | 23 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| P. Yazbek | M | 67 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| R. Baker-Whiting | D | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| D. Lovitz | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Muyl | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Willis | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Maher | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Bauer | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Mohammed | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
New York Red Bulls
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Hall | F | 90 | 7.8 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | — |
| C. Cowell | F | 59 | 7.3 | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2/2 |
| R. Mosquera | F | 50 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| A. Mehmeti | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2 | 0/2 |
| E. Horvath | G | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Jimenez | F | 31 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| C. Harper | F | 39 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| S. Kone | M | 89 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Marshall-Rutty | D | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Faello | D | 1 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| D. Padelford | D | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| D. Ruíz | M | 1 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Forsberg | M | 1 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Ruvalcaba | M | 89 | 5.4 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| J. Bazán | D | 90 | 5.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| T. Parker | D | 90 | 5.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| M. Sofo | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. McCarthy | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Dos Santos | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Nashville SC vs New York Red Bulls?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Nashville SC to win against New York Red Bulls.
- What score did Fipster predict for Nashville SC vs New York Red Bulls?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Nashville SC 3–0 New York Red Bulls.
- What were the win probabilities for Nashville SC vs New York Red Bulls?
- Fipster's model gave Nashville SC a 95% chance of winning, New York Red Bulls a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.