Nashville SC vs New England Revolution
Match recap
Nashville SC beat New England Revolution 4–1 in their Major League Soccer fixture. Surridge, Surridge, Mukhtar, and Madrigal scored for Nashville SC; Campana replied for New England Revolution. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 2.77 for Nashville SC versus 0.93 for New England Revolution.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
4-0 Nashville SC win
Actual
4–1
Outcome probability
The opening round of the MLS regular season sees Nashville SC face off against New England Revolution. With both teams eager to start their campaigns strongly, this fixture promises plenty of attacking intent and tactical intrigue.
Match factors
Nashville's potent attacking trio
Surridge and Mukhtar lead a high-scoring front line with strong recent form and home advantage
Espinoza's creative influence
Espinoza's 11 assists and strong home assist rate provide Nashville with key chance creation
Nashville's superior home scoring rate
Nashville averages 2.93 goals per home game, well above league average and New England's away scoring
Madrigal's absence weakens Nashville's attack
Madrigal is confirmed out, reducing attacking depth but Surridge and Mukhtar compensate
New England's defensive struggles
New England has conceded in last 5 away games, increasing Nashville's scoring chances
The context
This is the first match of the regular season, so both Nashville SC and New England Revolution will be looking to set the tone early. Historically, their head-to-head record is evenly matched, but form and squad dynamics this season suggest a shift in momentum.
Key insights
Samuel Surridge
Nashville SC
Leads the team with 16 goals, showing clinical finishing and consistent form at home.
Major League Soccer 26/2716 goals, 21 apps, 0.76 goals/game
Hany Mukhtar
Nashville SC
Key playmaker and captain with 13 goals and 6 assists, excellent home scoring record.
Major League Soccer 26/2713 goals, 27 apps, 0.48 goals/game
Cristian Espinoza
Nashville SC
Creative winger with 11 assists, providing crucial chances and maintaining a low disciplinary record.
Major League Soccer 26/2711 assists, 23 apps, 0.48 assists/game
Analysis
Nashville SC boast a potent attacking trio led by Samuel Surridge, who has netted 16 goals this season, and Hany Mukhtar, contributing 13 goals and 6 assists. Cristian Espinoza's creative prowess, with 11 assists, further bolsters their offensive threat. Their home scoring rate is impressive, averaging nearly 3 goals per game, which contrasts with New England's recent defensive vulnerabilities on the road, having conceded in their last five away matches. Despite the absence of Madrigal, Nashville's attack remains formidable. New England's Leonardo Campana offers some resistance with a goal in this fixture, but overall, Nashville's dominance is expected to be clear.
Key facts
- 1.Nashville SC average 2.93 goals per home game this season.
- 2.Samuel Surridge leads Nashville with 16 goals in 21 appearances.
- 3.Hany Mukhtar contributes 13 goals and 6 assists, key to Nashville's attack.
- 4.Cristian Espinoza has provided 11 assists, enhancing chance creation.
- 5.New England Revolution have conceded in their last 5 away matches.
- 6.Leonardo Campana scored for New England in this fixture.
- 7.Madrigal is out, but Nashville's attack remains strong.
- 8.Nashville SC and New England Revolution have an even head-to-head record of 5 wins each and 5 draws.
Prediction
The forecast is a comprehensive home win for Nashville SC, with a predicted 4-0 scoreline. The team is expected to establish early control, reflected in the likely 2-0 halftime lead, and maintain pressure to secure a comfortable victory without conceding.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Nashville SC
Away — New England Revolution
The verdict
In summary, Nashville SC's attacking firepower and home advantage should see them comfortably dispatch New England Revolution in this season opener. Expect a confident performance with goals aplenty and a clean sheet to boot.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 17:45 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Surridge
Surridge
Mukhtar
Assist: Madrigal
Sands
Campana
Assist: Gil
Yow
Yellow Card
Madrigal
Madrigal
Turgeman
Yow
Najar
Yazbek
Polster
Hughes
Surridge
Espinoza
Tagseth
Match Statistics
Nashville SC
4-3-3Starting XI
- 2D. LovitzD
- 3M. WoledziD
- 4J. PalaciosD
- 7C. EspinozaF
- 8P. YazbekM
- 9S. SurridgeF
- 10H. MukhtarM
- 20E. TagsethM
- 31A. NajarD
- 41W. MadrigalF
- 99B. SchwakeG
Substitutes
- 1J. WillisG
- 5J. MaherD
- 6B. AcostaM
- 16M. CorcoranM
- 17W. PaciusF
- 19A. MuylM
- 21R. Baker-WhitingD
- 22J. BauerD
- 37A. QasemF
New England Revolution
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 5K. HughesD
- 7G. YowM
- 8M. PolsterM
- 9L. CampanaF
- 10Carles GilM
- 11D. TurgemanM
- 21B. RainesM
- 22E. KohlerD
- 23W. SandsD
- 30M. TurnerG
- 88A. FarrellD
Substitutes
- 4T. BeasonD
- 12I. FeingoldD
- 14J. YueillM
- 32M. FryF
- 33D. ParisianG
- 38Eric KleinM
- 41L. LangoniF
- 59J. DaF
- 80A. YusufM
Nashville SC
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Surridge | F | 82 | 7.7 | 2 | — | 5 | 5 | — | 1/1 |
| Warren Madrigal | F | 61 | 7.6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0/1 |
| Hany Mukhtar(C) | M | 90 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/3 |
| Jeisson Palacios | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Edvard Sandvik Tagseth | M | 89 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Maxwell Woledzi | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Patrick Yazbek | M | 72 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Cristian Espinoza | F | 82 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Daniel Lovitz | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Andy Najar | D | 72 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/3 |
| Brian Schwake | G | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Bryan Acosta | M | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Joe Willis | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Reed Baker-Whiting | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jack Maher | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Josh Bauer | D | 18 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Matthew Corcoran | M | 18 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alex Muyl | M | 29 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Woobens Pacius | F | 8 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ahmed Qasem | F | 8 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
New England Revolution
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carles Gil(C) | M | 90 | 7.6 | — | 1 | — | — | 3 | 1/1 |
| Matt Turner | G | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Leonardo Campana | F | 90 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Brooklyn Raines | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ethan Kohler | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Matt Polster | M | 82 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| William Sands | D | 44 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dor Turgeman | M | 61 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Andrew Farrell | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Griffin Yow | M | 68 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/4 |
| Keegan Hughes | D | 82 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Donovan Parisian | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Eric Klein | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jayden Da | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jackson Yueill | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tanner Beason | D | 46 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ilay Feingold | D | 8 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Alhassan Yusuf | M | 8 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luca Langoni | F | 29 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Malcolm Fry | F | 22 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Nashville SC vs New England Revolution?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Nashville SC to win against New England Revolution.
- What score did Fipster predict for Nashville SC vs New England Revolution?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Nashville SC 4–0 New England Revolution.
- What were the win probabilities for Nashville SC vs New England Revolution?
- Fipster's model gave Nashville SC a 82% chance of winning, New England Revolution a 9% chance, and a 9% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 82% confidence — a high-confidence call.