Nashville SC vs Minnesota United FC
Match recap
Nashville SC beat Minnesota United FC 3–1 in their Major League Soccer fixture. Surridge, Espinoza, and Surridge scored for Nashville SC; Triantis replied for Minnesota United FC. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.75 for Nashville SC versus 0.92 for Minnesota United FC.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
3-1 Nashville SC win
Actual
3–1
Outcome probability
Nashville SC and Minnesota United FC face off in the third round of the regular season, with Nashville looking to extend their impressive home scoring streak. Minnesota will need to tighten up defensively to keep pace.
Match factors
Nashville's potent attacking trio in form
Surridge, Mukhtar, and Espinoza combine high goal and assist rates, creating a strong offensive threat at home
Nashville's superior home scoring rate
Nashville averages 2.93 goals per home game, well above Minnesota's 1.14 away goals, favoring a high-scoring home win
Minnesota missing key attacker Joaquín Pereyra
Pereyra is out with muscle injury, reducing Minnesota's creative and scoring options
Nashville's strong recent form and scoring streak
Nashville is on a 5-game scoring streak at home with a 67.9% win rate this season
The context
This match is part of the regular season where Nashville SC have shown strong attacking form at home, averaging nearly three goals per game. Minnesota United FC, sitting 14th in the league, have struggled away from home and will be missing key creative options due to injury.
Key insights
S. Surridge
Nashville SC
Surridge leads Nashville with 16 goals this season and scored twice in this match, proving pivotal in their attacking success.
Major League Soccer 26/2716 goals in 21 appearances, 0.76 goals/game
H. Mukhtar
Nashville SC
Mukhtar’s creativity and 13 goals this season, including strong home form, make him a key playmaker for Nashville.
Major League Soccer 26/2713 goals in 27 appearances, 0.48 goals/game
C. Espinoza
Nashville SC
Espinoza’s 11 assists and high chance creation rate underpin Nashville’s attacking threat at home.
Major League Soccer 26/2711 assists in 23 appearances, 0.48 assists/game
- N
Nectarios Triantis
Minnesota United FC
Triantis scored Minnesota’s sole goal, highlighting his importance in an otherwise struggling attack.
Major League Soccer 26/271 goal in this fixture
Analysis
Nashville SC's attacking trio, led by Sam Surridge who scored twice in this fixture, alongside Hany Mukhtar and Christian Espinoza, have been in fine form, combining for a high volume of goals and assists. Minnesota's main threat came from Nectarios Triantis, who netted once, but their defensive frailties and absence of Joaquín Pereyra due to injury have hampered their chances. Nashville's ability to score early and maintain pressure is reflected in the halftime lead and eventual 3-1 scoreline.
Key facts
- 1.Nashville SC lead the head-to-head with 2 wins out of 5 meetings against Minnesota United FC.
- 2.Average goals per head-to-head match stand at 2.8, favouring an open game.
- 3.Nashville SC average 2.93 goals per home game this season.
- 4.Minnesota United FC rank 14th in the league with 30 points from 28 games.
- 5.Sam Surridge scored 2 goals in this fixture, highlighting his key role.
- 6.Minnesota United FC are missing Joaquín Pereyra due to a muscle injury.
- 7.Halftime score of 2-0 aligns with the final 3-1 result, showing early dominance.
Prediction
Expect Nashville SC to take control early, leading 2-0 at halftime and finishing strong with a 3-1 victory. Minnesota United FC may find the net once but will struggle to contain Nashville's potent attack throughout the match.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Nashville SC
Away — Minnesota United FC
The verdict
Nashville SC's home advantage and attacking prowess make them the clear favourites to claim all three points. Minnesota United FC will need to regroup quickly to improve their away form in upcoming fixtures.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 18:24 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Surridge
Assist: Yazbek
Espinoza
Triantis
Assist: Pereyra
Surridge
Assist: Yazbek
Lovitz
Hlongwane
Markanich
Triantis
Espinoza
Najar
Palacios
Yellow Card
Mukhtar
Surridge
Padelford
Trapp
Gressel
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | +32 | 55 |
| 12 |  San Diego | 30 | 8 | 10 | 12 | -3 | 34 |
| 13 |  Minnesota United FC | 30 | 8 | 10 | 12 | -8 | 34 |
| 14 |  Austin | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -18 | 31 |
Match Statistics
Nashville SC
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 2D. LovitzD
- 3M. WoledziD
- 4J. PalaciosD
- 7C. EspinozaM
- 8P. YazbekM
- 9S. SurridgeF
- 10H. MukhtarM
- 19A. MuylM
- 20E. TagsethM
- 31A. NajarD
- 99B. SchwakeG
Substitutes
- 1J. WillisG
- 5J. MaherD
- 6B. AcostaM
- 17W. PaciusF
- 22J. BauerD
- 23J. KnightD
- 27R. Baker-WhitingD
- 37A. QasemF
- 41W. MadrigalF
Minnesota United FC
4-3-3Starting XI
- 2D. PadelfordD
- 8T. ChancalayF
- 9K. YeboahF
- 12D. CallenderG
- 13A. MarkanichD
- 20W. TrappM
- 21B. HlongwaneM
- 23M. DugganD
- 25N. TriantisM
- 26J. PereyraF
- 28J. DíazD
Substitutes
- 1A. SmirG
- 3K. DuncanD
- 5N. RomeroD
- 6P. StroudM
- 24J. GresselM
- 27D. TaylorD
- 29M.DiengF
- 30O. GeneM
- 67C. HarveyM
Nashville SC
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Surridge | F | 86 | 8.3 | 2 | — | 3 | 2 | — | — |
| Patrick Yazbek | M | 90 | 7.6 | — | 2 | 1 | — | 3 | 1/1 |
| Jeisson Palacios | D | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Cristian Espinoza | M | 78 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1/1 |
| Brian Schwake | G | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Maxwell Woledzi | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alex Muyl | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/3 |
| Daniel Lovitz | D | 62 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Edvard Sandvik Tagseth | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Hany Mukhtar(C) | M | 86 | 6.3 | — | — | 3 | 2 | 5 | 1/3 |
| Andy Najar | D | 78 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/6 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Jordan Knight | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jack Maher | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bryan Acosta | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Joe Willis | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Josh Bauer | D | 28 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Warren Madrigal | F | 12 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Reed Baker-Whiting | D | 12 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ahmed Qasem | F | 11 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Woobens Pacius | F | 11 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Minnesota United FC
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nectarios Triantis | M | 75 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2/2 |
| Joaquín Pereyra | F | 90 | 7.2 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | 1/2 |
| Jefferson Díaz | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2/2 |
| Devin Padelford | D | 86 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Anthony Markanich | D | 75 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wil Trapp(C) | M | 86 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kelvin Yeboah | F | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Morris Duggan | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Bongokuhle Hlongwane | M | 66 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| Tomás Chancalay | F | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 0/3 |
| Drake Callender | G | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Peter Stroud | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Carlos Harvey | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alec Smir | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nicolás Romero | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kyle Duncan | D | 15 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| Owen Gene | M | 11 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mamadou Dieng | F | 15 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| D.J. Taylor | D | 11 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Julian Gressel | M | 24 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Nashville SC vs Minnesota United FC?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Nashville SC to win against Minnesota United FC.
- What score did Fipster predict for Nashville SC vs Minnesota United FC?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Nashville SC 3–1 Minnesota United FC.
- What were the win probabilities for Nashville SC vs Minnesota United FC?
- Fipster's model gave Nashville SC a 77% chance of winning, Minnesota United FC a 11% chance, and a 12% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 77% confidence — a high-confidence call.