Napoli vs Udinese
Match recap
Napoli beat Udinese 1–0 in their Serie A fixture. Højlund scored for Napoli. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.81 for Napoli versus 0.44 for Udinese. Napoli sit 2nd in the Serie A table while Udinese are 10th.
Analysis
As the Serie A season nears its climax, Napoli, affectionately known as Gli Azzurri, host Udinese in what promises to be a closely fought encounter. With Napoli pushing for a strong finish and Udinese looking to spoil the party, the stage is set for a tactical battle.
Napoli currently sit second in the league with 73 points, comfortably ahead of Udinese in tenth place with 50 points. Historically, Napoli have dominated this fixture, winning 15 of their last 20 meetings. The average goals per match between these sides is a lively 3.3, suggesting attacking intent from both camps.
Napoli's attacking threat is spearheaded by R. Højlund, who boasts 11 goals this season and excellent recent away form, making him a key figure in the home side's forward line. Midfielder S. McTominay adds an extra goal threat with 10 goals, while M. Politano's creativity and assist tally bolster Napoli's chances. Defensively, the backline led by G. Di Lorenzo and Amir Rrahmani offers solidity, crucial for maintaining a clean sheet against an Udinese side that has scored in their last five away games. Udinese's creativity may be hampered by the questionable fitness of N. Zaniolo, reducing their attacking options.
Prediction
Given Napoli's superior league position, historical dominance, and strong defensive record, the prediction leans towards a narrow 1-0 home win. The halftime score is expected to mirror the fulltime result, with a total of three cards likely in a competitive but controlled match. Confidence in this outcome stands at a solid 68%.
Outcome probability
Key Insights
Napoli's attacking edge through Højlund
Højlund's goal and assist form, combined with his high minutes, gives Napoli a clear attacking focal point.
Midfield scoring from McTominay
McTominay's 10 goals this season and recent scoring form provide Napoli an additional goal threat from midfield.
Udinese's creative midfield weakened by Zaniolo injury
Zaniolo's questionable status and assist contribution reduce Udinese's chance creation and attacking threat.
Defensive solidity from Napoli's backline
Di Lorenzo and Rrahmani's above-average defensive stats and passing accuracy support Napoli's defensive stability.
Udinese's away scoring streak
Udinese has scored in last 5 away games, showing attacking resilience despite lower overall form.
Key Takeaways
In summary, Napoli's blend of attacking prowess and defensive resilience should see them edge out Udinese in a tight contest. While Udinese have shown resilience on the road, the home advantage and quality of Gli Azzurri are expected to prevail in this season finale fixture.
- Napoli have won 15 of 20 head-to-head matches against Udinese.
- Head-to-head matches average 3.3 total goals, indicating open play.
- Napoli are 2nd in the league with 73 points; Udinese are 10th with 50 points.
- Napoli's goal difference (+21) significantly outshines Udinese's (-2).
- Udinese have scored in their last 5 away games, showing attacking resilience.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Napoli
Away — Udinese
No standout top scorers flagged for Udinese
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Santos
Højlund
Assist: De Bruyne
Lobotka
Olivera
Karlström
Yellow Card
Piotrowski
Karlström
Kristensen
Kabasele
Red Card
Card upgrade
Politano
Meret
Davis
Zemura
Buksa
Yellow Card
Miller
Yellow Card
Match Statistics
Napoli
3-4-3Starting XI
- 1A. MeretG
- 3Miguel GutiérrezM
- 8S. McTominayM
- 13Amir RrahmaniD
- 17M. OliveraD
- 19R. HøjlundF
- 20E. ElmasF
- 21M. PolitanoM
- 22G. Di LorenzoD
- 27Alisson SantosF
- 68S. LobotkaM
Substitutes
- 5Juan JesusD
- 6B. GilmourM
- 11K. De BruyneM
- 14N. ContiniG
- 23GiovaneF
- 26A. VergaraM
- 30P. MazzocchiD
- 31S. BeukemaD
- 32V. Milinković-SavićG
- 99A. Zambo AnguissaM
Udinese
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 8J. KarlströmM
- 9K. DavisF
- 14A. AttaF
- 19K. EhizibueM
- 24J. PiotrowskiF
- 27C. KabaseleD
- 28O. SoletD
- 31T. KristensenD
- 33J. ZemuraM
- 38L. MillerM
- 40M. OkoyeG
Substitutes
- 1A. NunzianteG
- 6Oier ZarragaM
- 7I. GueyeF
- 13N. BertolaD
- 15V. BayoF
- 18A. BuksaF
- 22Branimir MlačićD
- 29A. CamaraM
- 90R. SavaG
- 93D. PadelliG
Napoli
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmus Højlund | F | 90 | 8.5 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1/1 |
| Scott McTominay | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Giovanni Di Lorenzo(C) | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Amir Rrahmani | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Mathías Olivera | D | 45 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matteo Politano | M | 80 | 7.0 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0/3 |
| Alex Meret | G | 80 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Eljif Elmas | F | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Stanislav Lobotka | M | 37 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Miguel Gutiérrez | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Alisson Santos | F | 10 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Giovane | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Frank Anguissa | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vanja Milinković-Savić | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sam Beukema | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Antonio Vergara | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Juan Jesus | D | 45 | 7.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Billy Gilmour | M | 53 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Kevin De Bruyne | M | 80 | 6.9 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 4 | 0/1 |
| Pasquale Mazzocchi | D | 10 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nikita Contini | G | 10 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Udinese
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maduka Okoye | G | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lennon Miller | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Oumar Solet | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Arthur Atta | F | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/2 |
| Kingsley Ehizibue | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Jordan Zemura | M | 80 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jakub Piotrowski | F | 54 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Thomas Kristensen | D | 59 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Keinan Davis | F | 80 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Jesper Karlström(C) | M | 59 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Christian Kabasele | D | 64 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Daniele Padelli | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vakoun Issouf Bayo | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Răzvan Sava | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Abdoulaye Camara | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alessandro Nunziante | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nicolò Bertola | D | 31 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Branimir Mlačić | D | 10 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Adam Buksa | F | 31 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Oier Zarraga | M | 10 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Idrissa Gueye | F | 36 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |