Napoli vs Bologna
Match recap
Bologna beat Napoli 3–2 in their Serie A fixture. Di Lorenzo and Santos scored for Napoli; Bernardeschi, Orsolini, and Rowe replied for Bologna. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 0.75 for Napoli versus 1.32 for Bologna. Napoli sit 2nd in the Serie A table while Bologna are 8th.
Analysis
As Serie A approaches its 36th round, Napoli host Bologna in a match where the home side is favoured to edge out a narrow victory. With Napoli's recent form and home advantage, this promises to be a tactical battle with limited goals.
Napoli currently sit 2nd in the league with 70 points, comfortably ahead of Bologna who are 8th with 49 points. Historically, Napoli have dominated this fixture, winning 12 of their last 20 encounters. The average goals per match between these sides is a healthy 3.2, but recent form and injuries suggest a tighter affair this time.
Napoli's midfield maestro Scott McTominay has been in fine form, netting 9 goals this season and playing a pivotal role in controlling the game. Despite injuries to key attackers like Højlund and De Bruyne, Napoli's defensive resilience and home advantage should see them keep Bologna's main threats, Dallinga and Orsolini, at bay. Bologna's inconsistent form and reliance on a couple of key players further tilt the scales towards Napoli.
Prediction
The forecast is a 1-0 win for Napoli, with the goal likely coming in the first half. The match is expected to be competitive but tight, with a total of around four cards issued as tempers flare in this crucial late-season clash. Confidence in this prediction stands at a solid 60%, reflecting Napoli's edge in quality and home comfort.
Outcome probability
Key Insights
Napoli's key attackers injured
Højlund, De Bruyne, Politano, and others are injured, limiting attacking options.
Midfield dominance by McTominay
McTominay's form and minutes suggest Napoli controls midfield, key to breaking Bologna defense.
Defensive solidity of Napoli
Napoli has a 37% clean sheet rate and strong defensive ratings, likely to limit Bologna chances.
Bologna's inconsistent form
Bologna's recent form is mixed with losses and draws, reducing their scoring threat.
Bologna's reliance on Dallinga and Orsolini
Bologna depends heavily on these two for goals, Napoli's defense must contain them.
Key Takeaways
In summary, Napoli's blend of midfield dominance and defensive solidity should be enough to see off Bologna in a closely fought contest. Fans can expect a disciplined game with a single decisive goal, reinforcing Napoli's strong position in the league.
- Napoli have won 12 of the last 20 matches against Bologna.
- Average goals per match in this fixture is 3.2, indicating attacking potential.
- Napoli are 2nd in Serie A with 70 points from 35 games.
- Bologna sit 8th with 49 points from 35 games.
- Scott McTominay is Napoli's top scorer with 9 goals this season.
- Bologna rely heavily on Dallinga and Orsolini for goals.
- Napoli have a 37% clean sheet rate this season.
- Predicted total cards in the match is 4.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Napoli
Away — Bologna
No standout top scorers flagged for Bologna
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Bernardeschi
Assist: Miranda
Penalty confirmed
Orsolini
Penalty
João Mário
Yellow Card
Di Lorenzo
Bernardeschi
Yellow Card
Santos
Assist: Højlund
Helland
Yellow Card
João Mário
Lucumí
Yellow Card
Bernardeschi
Lobotka
Giovane
Pobega
Ferguson
Helland
Politano
Yellow Card
Politano
Gutiérrez
Rowe
Match Statistics
Napoli
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 3Miguel GutiérrezM
- 4A. BuongiornoD
- 8S. McTominayM
- 13Amir RrahmaniD
- 19R. HøjlundF
- 21M. PolitanoM
- 22G. Di LorenzoD
- 23GiovaneF
- 27Alisson SantosF
- 32V. Milinković-SavićG
- 68S. LobotkaM
Substitutes
- 1A. MeretG
- 5Juan JesusD
- 6B. GilmourM
- 14N. ContiniG
- 17M. OliveraD
- 20E. ElmasM
- 26A. VergaraM
- 30P. MazzocchiD
- 31S. BeukemaD
- 37L. SpinazzolaD
- 99A. Zambo AnguissaM
Bologna
4-3-3Starting XI
- 4T. PobegaM
- 5E. HellandD
- 7R. OrsoliniF
- 8R. FreulerM
- 9S. CastroF
- 10F. BernardeschiF
- 17João MárioD
- 19L. FergusonM
- 25M. PessinaG
- 26J. LucumíD
- 33Juan MirandaD
Substitutes
- 1Ł. SkorupskiG
- 6N. MoroM
- 11J. RoweF
- 13F. RavagliaG
- 14T. HeggemD
- 20N. ZorteaD
- 21J. OdgaardF
- 22C. LykogiannisD
- 23S. SohmM
- 24T. DallingaF
- 29L. De SilvestriD
- 30B. DomínguezF
Napoli
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alisson Santos | F | 96 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2/3 |
| Matteo Politano | M | 84 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Scott McTominay | M | 96 | 6.9 | — | — | 3 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Giovanni Di Lorenzo(C) | D | 96 | 6.9 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Stanislav Lobotka | M | 76 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Miguel Gutiérrez | M | 87 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| Giovane | F | 76 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/3 |
| Rasmus Højlund | F | 96 | 6.6 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| Amir Rrahmani | D | 96 | 6.0 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Vanja Milinković-Savić | G | 96 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alessandro Buongiorno | D | 96 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Alex Meret | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Juan Jesus | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Frank Anguissa | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sam Beukema | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mathías Olivera | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Antonio Vergara | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nikita Contini | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Billy Gilmour | M | 20 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Eljif Elmas | M | 20 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pasquale Mazzocchi | D | 9 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Leonardo Spinazzola | D | 12 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
Bologna
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Federico Bernardeschi | F | 73 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| Riccardo Orsolini | F | 96 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/3 |
| Juan Miranda | D | 96 | 7.2 | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0/1 |
| Remo Freuler | M | 96 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jhon Lucumí | D | 96 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Lewis Ferguson(C) | M | 81 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2/2 |
| Tommaso Pobega | M | 81 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Mário | D | 64 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Santiago Castro | F | 96 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Eivind Helland | D | 82 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Massimo Pessina | G | 96 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Federico Ravaglia | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Benjamín Domínguez | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lorenzo De Silvestri | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jens Odgaard | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Thijs Dallinga | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Łukasz Skorupski | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Charalampos Lykogiannis | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jonathan Rowe | F | 23 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Torbjørn Heggem | D | 14 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nikola Moro | M | 15 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nadir Zortea | D | 32 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Simon Sohm | M | 15 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |