Napoli vs AS Roma
Napoli and Roma share six-goal thriller
A pulsating 3-3 draw sees both sides trade blows in a Serie A spectacle.
Napoli and AS Roma served up a six-goal feast with McTominay starring for Napoli with a brace, while Balerdi's late strike ensured Roma salvaged a point. Despite Fipster's low-confidence call for a narrow Napoli win, the match defied expectations with end-to-end action and a thrilling draw.
Outcome probability
Napoli and AS Roma face off in what promises to be a closely contested Serie A fixture. Both sides have shown solid form, but this match is expected to be a tactical battle with few clear-cut chances early on.
Match factors
Key attackers missing or doubtful for both teams
Napoli's David Neres and AS Roma's Dybala are out, with Alisson Santos and Zambo Anguissa doubtful, reducing attacking options.
Napoli's defensive passing and tackling strength
Napoli defenders like Rrahmani and Di Lorenzo show passing accuracy and duel win rates well above league averages, aiding defensive solidity.
AS Roma's strong recent form and scoring consistency
Roma have won 4 of last 7 with 2.29 goals per game and 71% clean sheets, indicating strong attacking and defensive form.
Napoli's home scoring streak vs Roma's away defensive record
Napoli has scored in last 3 home games while Roma boasts 3 consecutive away clean sheets, setting a tactical clash between attack and defense.
The context
AS Roma currently sit 3rd in the league with 14 points from 6 games, showcasing strong form and defensive resilience. Napoli, positioned 9th with 10 points from 7 games, have been solid at home but face a tough challenge against the in-form Giallorossi.
Key insights
- A
Amir Rrahmani
Napoli
Rrahmani's passing accuracy of 88% and 70% duels won rate provide Napoli with defensive stability and ball retention.
Serie A 26/27Passing accuracy 88%, Duels won 70%, 6 full matches played
- S
S. Lobotka
Napoli
Lobotka's disciplined play with zero yellow cards and 91% passing accuracy helps Napoli control midfield without risking suspensions.
Serie A 26/27Passing accuracy 91%, Zero yellow cards
- D
Donyell Malen
AS Roma
Malen leads Roma's attack with multiple goals and a recent match rating of 10, making him a key threat despite some teammates missing.
Serie A 26/27Top scorer with multiple goals, Recent match rating 10
- G
G. Di Lorenzo
Napoli
Di Lorenzo's 2.5 tackles per game and 62% duel success rate make him a defensive stalwart crucial to Napoli's home form.
Serie A 26/272.5 tackles per game, Duels won 62%
Analysis
Historically, Napoli have the upper hand in head-to-head encounters, winning 10 of 20 matches against Roma, who have won 4 with 6 draws. The average goals per meeting stand at 2.6, indicating moderate scoring. Napoli's defence, led by Amir Rrahmani and Giovanni Di Lorenzo, boasts impressive passing accuracy and duel success rates, which could frustrate Roma's attack. Meanwhile, Roma's top scorer Donyell Malen has been in fine form, but key players like Paulo Dybala are doubtful or out, potentially limiting their offensive threat. Both teams have shown defensive solidity recently, with Napoli scoring in their last three home games and Roma keeping three consecutive away clean sheets, setting up a tactical clash between attack and defence.
Key facts
- 1.Napoli have won 10 of 20 matches against AS Roma, with 6 draws and 4 Roma wins.
- 2.Average goals per head-to-head match is 2.6, indicating moderate scoring.
- 3.AS Roma rank 3rd with 14 points from 6 games (W4 D2 L0).
- 4.Napoli rank 9th with 10 points from 7 games (W3 D1 L3).
- 5.Napoli defenders Amir Rrahmani and Giovanni Di Lorenzo show passing accuracy and duel win rates well above league averages.
- 6.AS Roma's Donyell Malen is their top scorer with multiple goals in recent games.
- 7.Napoli have scored in their last 3 home games.
- 8.AS Roma have kept 3 consecutive away clean sheets.
Prediction
Expect a tight first half with no goals, as both sides feel each other out. Napoli are predicted to clinch a narrow 1-0 victory, likely through a late goal that breaks the deadlock. The match should feature a handful of cards, reflecting the competitive nature of the encounter.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Napoli
Away — AS Roma
The verdict
This fixture is finely balanced but Napoli's home advantage and defensive strengths may just tip the scales. Fans can anticipate a tense, tactical game with a slim margin deciding the outcome.
Prediction generated 17 Oct 2026, 20:38 UTC · Fipster Model v1.164
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Rafa Marín
Yellow Card
Zambo Anguissa
Cristante
Yellow Card
Rensch
Yellow Card
McTominay
Assist: Politano
Badiashile
Pisilli
Hermoso
Rensch
Balerdi
Yellow Card
Politano
Soulé
Assist: Malen
Balerdi
Assist: Castro
Lang
De Bruyne
Di Lorenzo
McTominay
Assist: Olivera
Mancini
Malen
de Roon
Yellow Card
Balerdi
Assist: Wesley
Red Card
Match Statistics
Napoli
4-3-3Starting XI
- 1A. MeretG
- 5B. BadiashileD
- 8S. McTominayM
- 11K. De BruyneM
- 16Rafa MarínD
- 17M. OliveraD
- 19R. HøjlundF
- 21M. PolitanoF
- 22G. Di LorenzoD
- 70N. LangF
- 99A. Zambo AnguissaM
Substitutes
- 6B. GilmourM
- 14N. ContiniG
- 20L. LuccaF
- 23GiovaneF
- 26A. VergaraM
- 31S. BeukemaD
- 32V. Milinković-SavićG
- 35Luca MarianucciD
- 37L. SpinazzolaD
- 68S. LobotkaM
AS Roma
3-5-2Starting XI
- 2D. RenschM
- 4B. CristanteM
- 5E. NdickaD
- 14D. MalenF
- 15M. de RoonM
- 18M. SouléF
- 22HermosoD
- 23G. ManciniD
- 43WesleyM
- 61N. PisilliM
- 95P. GolliniG
Substitutes
- 3K. KoulierakisD
- 9S. CastroF
- 20N. MolinaD
- 26L. BalerdiD
- 32D. VásquezG
- 70G. De MarziG
- 77E. LulliD
- 86Rodrigo MoraM
- 87D. GhilardiD
Napoli
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. McTominay | M | 90 | 9.1 | 2 | — | 3 | 3 | — | — |
| A. Zambo Anguissa | M | 90 | 7.8 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| M. Politano | F | 66 | 7.6 | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1/1 |
| R. Højlund | F | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3/3 |
| Giovane | F | 24 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/3 |
| A. Meret | G | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Olivera | D | 90 | 6.4 | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0/1 |
| N. Lang | F | 79 | 6.4 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| B. Badiashile | D | 52 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Spinazzola | D | 10 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| S. Beukema | D | 38 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| G. Di Lorenzo | D | 80 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| K. De Bruyne | M | 79 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| S. Lobotka | M | 11 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rafa Marín | D | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| A. Vergara | M | 11 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| V. Milinković-Savić | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Contini | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Gilmour | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Lucca | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luca Marianucci | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
AS Roma
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Balerdi | D | 32 | 9.0 | 2 | — | 3 | 2 | — | — |
| M. Soulé | F | 90 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 4 | 1 | 4 | 4/5 |
| D. Malen | F | 84 | 7.7 | — | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2/3 |
| Wesley | M | 90 | 7.1 | — | 1 | 3 | — | 4 | 1/1 |
| P. Gollini | G | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| S. Castro | F | 32 | 6.8 | — | 1 | 2 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| N. Pisilli | M | 58 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 0/1 |
| M. de Roon | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Hermoso | D | 58 | 6.5 | — | — | 3 | — | — | — |
| B. Cristante | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 3 | — | — | — |
| N. Molina | D | 32 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| E. Ndicka | D | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| G. Mancini | D | 84 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| D. Ghilardi | D | 6 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rodrigo Mora | M | 6 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Rensch | M | 58 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| E. Lulli | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Vásquez | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Koulierakis | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. De Marzi | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Napoli vs AS Roma?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Napoli to win against AS Roma.
- What score did Fipster predict for Napoli vs AS Roma?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Napoli 1–0 AS Roma.
- What were the win probabilities for Napoli vs AS Roma?
- Fipster's model gave Napoli a 35% chance of winning, AS Roma a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.