Nacional vs SC Braga
Nacional stuns Braga with early strike
Miguel Baeza's 19th-minute goal secures a narrow home win.
Nacional edged out SC Braga 1-0 in a tight Primeira Liga encounter thanks to Miguel Baeza's early goal. Despite Fipster's low-confidence prediction favouring an away win, the home side held firm to claim a surprise victory. The result defied expectations and handed Nacional all three points in a closely contested match.
Outcome probability
Nacional and SC Braga face off in the ninth round of the regular season, with Braga looking to continue their better run of form against a struggling Nacional side.
Match factors
SC Braga's attacking edge with Pau Victor
Pau Victor leads SC Braga's scoring with 3 goals and strong recent away form, providing a key offensive threat.
Demir Tıknaz's creative influence
Demir Tıknaz tops SC Braga's assists with 2 this season, showing strong creativity and passing accuracy.
Nacional's defensive struggles
Nacional has conceded in all last 5 matches, indicating defensive vulnerabilities SC Braga can exploit.
SC Braga's midfield defensive strength
João Moutinho and Vitor Carvalho provide strong tackling and interception stats, key to disrupting Nacional's play.
The context
SC Braga currently sit 8th in the league with 11 points from 7 games, while Nacional find themselves down in 15th with just 4 points. Historically, Braga have dominated their encounters, winning 15 of the 20 meetings against Nacional, who have managed only 2 wins and 3 draws.
Key insights
Pau Victor
SC Braga
Pau Victor leads SC Braga's scoring with 3 goals and strong recent away form, providing a key offensive threat.
Primeira Liga 26/273 goals in 7 games, 518 mins, 0.43 goals/game
Demir Tıknaz
SC Braga
Demir Tıknaz tops SC Braga's assists with 2 this season, showing strong creativity and passing accuracy.
Primeira Liga 26/272 assists in 6 games, 409 mins, 0.33 assists/game
- J
João Moutinho
SC Braga
João Moutinho provides strong tackling and interceptions, key to disrupting Nacional's play.
Primeira Liga 26/2714 tackles in 7 games, 53% duel win rate
- N
Nacional Defence
Nacional
Nacional has conceded in all last 5 matches, indicating defensive vulnerabilities SC Braga can exploit.
Analysis
Braga's goal difference of zero contrasts sharply with Nacional's minus eight, highlighting the visitors' stronger balance between attack and defence. Pau Victor leads Braga's scoring charts with 3 goals this season, including a strong recent away form. Midfielder Demir Tıknaz provides creativity with 2 assists and excellent passing accuracy, while defensive midfielders João Moutinho and Vitor Carvalho bolster Braga's defensive solidity. Nacional's defensive woes are evident, having conceded in all of their last five matches, which Braga will look to exploit.
Key facts
- 1.SC Braga have won 15 of 20 meetings against Nacional, who have won only 2.
- 2.SC Braga are 8th in the league with 11 points from 7 games (W3 D2 L2).
- 3.Nacional are 15th with 4 points from 7 games (W1 D1 L5).
- 4.SC Braga have a goal difference of 0; Nacional's is -8.
- 5.Nacional have conceded in all of their last 5 matches.
- 6.Pau Victor is SC Braga's top scorer with 3 goals this season.
- 7.Demir Tıknaz leads SC Braga with 2 assists and strong passing stats.
- 8.João Moutinho and Vitor Carvalho provide defensive strength in Braga's midfield.
Prediction
The prediction favours an away win for SC Braga by a 2-1 scoreline. Despite the low confidence due to limited match history and close probabilities for other outcomes, Braga's superior form, goal difference, and attacking edge make them the likely winners in this encounter.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Nacional
No standout top scorers flagged for Nacional
Away — SC Braga
The verdict
While Nacional will be eager to improve their fortunes, Braga's combination of attacking threat and defensive resilience should see them claim the three points. Expect a competitive match with Braga just edging it in the end.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 16:33 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Goal confirmed
Baeza
Assist: Song Min-Kyu
Francisco Gonçalves
Yellow Card
Tomás Marqués
Silva
Gorby
Milošević
Song Min-Kyu
Jensen
Arrey-Mbi
Kader
Labidi
Barcia
Yellow Card
Baeza
Gavriel
Yellow Card
Lagerbielke
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0 | +22 | 33 |
| 7 |  GIL Vicente | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | +2 | 18 |
| 8 |  SC Braga | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | +1 | 14 |
| 9 |  Moreirense | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 14 |
| 12 |  Estrela | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 13 |  Nacional | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -8 | 10 |
| 14 |  Guimaraes | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 9 |
Match Statistics
Nacional
5-4-1Starting XI
- 1Renato BellucciG
- 6Matheus DiasD
- 7M. JensenD
- 8Miguel BaezaM
- 11S. GavrielM
- 12Song Min-KyuM
- 15C. LabidiM
- 21W. KokoloD
- 29N. KaderF
- 33Francisco GonçalvesD
- 38Zé VitorD
Substitutes
- 2Daniel Isai de la Cruz de la CruzD
- 5José GomesD
- 9A. ObandoF
- 10Daniel JúniorM
- 13João GonçalvesG
- 14Ivanildo FernandesD
- 17F. NavaF
- 20Matchoi DjalóM
- 26Joel da SilvaM
- 31D. DongmoM
- 88DeivisonM
- 99Pablo RuanF
SC Braga
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 2Víctor GómezM
- 10Pau VictorM
- 11Gabriel SilvaM
- 14G. LagerbielkeD
- 16Tomás MarquésM
- 17J. MiloševićF
- 21Ricardo HortaM
- 22Sergio BarciaD
- 26B. Arrey-MbiD
- 29J. GorbyM
- 31Bernardo FontesG
Substitutes
- 6Vitor CarvalhoM
- 7Diogo TravassosD
- 8João MoutinhoM
- 9Fran NavarroF
- 20M. DorgelesM
- 23D. HuseinbašićM
- 34E. TıknazM
- 37A. BarišićD
- 44A. BajramiD
- 50Diego RodriguesM
- 77Gabri MartínezF
- 78João CarvalhoG
Nacional
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miguel Baeza | M | 86 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1/1 |
| Matheus Dias | D | 90 | 7.4 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Song Min-Kyu | M | 68 | 7.3 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Zé Vitor | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| Matchoi Djaló | M | 22 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| M. Jensen | D | 68 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Renato Bellucci | G | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Dongmo | M | 12 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Deivison | M | 22 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| W. Kokolo | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Gavriel | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | 2 | — | 0/1 |
| Pablo Ruan | F | 12 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Júnior | M | 4 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Labidi | M | 78 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| N. Kader | F | 78 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Francisco Gonçalves | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Isai de la Cruz de la Cruz | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Joel da Silva | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Obando | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Nava | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| José Gomes | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Gonçalves | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ivanildo Fernandes | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
SC Braga
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| João Moutinho | M | 44 | 7.1 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| G. Lagerbielke | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| B. Arrey-Mbi | D | 76 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Víctor Gómez | M | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | 3 | — |
| Gabri Martínez | F | 44 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 2/7 |
| Gabriel Silva | M | 46 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 0/3 |
| Tomás Marqués | M | 46 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Ricardo Horta | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 1/3 |
| J. Gorby | M | 46 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sergio Barcia | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Bernardo Fontes | G | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Milošević | F | 62 | 6.4 | — | — | 5 | 1 | — | — |
| M. Dorgeles | M | 44 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| D. Huseinbašić | M | 14 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Fran Navarro | F | 28 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| Pau Victor | M | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1/3 |
| A. Bajrami | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Barišić | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vitor Carvalho | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Carvalho | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Diego Rodrigues | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Diogo Travassos | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Tıknaz | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Nacional vs SC Braga?
- Fipster's AI model predicted SC Braga to win against Nacional.
- What score did Fipster predict for Nacional vs SC Braga?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Nacional 1–2 SC Braga.
- What were the win probabilities for Nacional vs SC Braga?
- Fipster's model gave Nacional a 32% chance of winning, SC Braga a 35% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.