Nacional vs Alverca
Alverca storms Nacional with a clinical treble
Three first-half goals set Alverca on course for a confident win at Nacional.
Alverca delivered a stunning performance away at Nacional, racing to a 3-0 lead before the break thanks to Francisco Chissumba and a brace from D. Camara. Although Matchoi Djaló pulled one back for Nacional in the second half, it was too little too late as Alverca secured a 3-1 victory. This result defied Fipster's high-confidence prediction of a 4-1 home win, proving the visitors' dominance was no fluke.
Outcome probability
Nacional and Alverca face off in the sixth round of the 2026 season, with Nacional looking to build on their solid start. Alverca, struggling for points, will need to find a way to contain Nacional's attacking threat if they hope to avoid a heavy defeat.
Match factors
Nacional's attacking midfield strength
Nacional's midfielders like Wesley Gasolina and Liziero show above-average scoring and assisting rates, providing a creative edge.
Léo Santos' dual threat from defense
Léo Santos contributes both goals and assists at a rate well above league average for defenders, enhancing Nacional's set-piece threat.
Vivaldo Semedo's scoring form for Alverca
Semedo leads Alverca's scoring with 2 goals in 4 games, showing potential to break through despite team struggles.
No confirmed absences for either team
Both teams have full squads available, so predicted lineups should feature all key scorers and assisters.
The context
Nacional currently sit 10th in the league with 4 points from 4 games, showing a better goal difference and points-per-game than Alverca, who are 16th with just 2 points from 5 games. This league form sets the stage for a tough challenge for Alverca, who have yet to win this season.
Key insights
Wesley Gasolina
Nacional
Wesley Gasolina's above-average goal rate and strong home form provide Nacional with a creative edge in midfield.
Primeira Liga 26/271 goal in 4 appearances, 0.25 goals/game, 0.5 goals/game at home
Léo Santos
Nacional
Léo Santos offers a dual threat from defence with high goal and assist contributions, enhancing set-piece opportunities.
Primeira Liga 26/271 goal and 1 assist in 4 appearances, 0.25 goals and assists/game
Vivaldo Semedo
Alverca
Despite team struggles, Vivaldo Semedo leads Alverca's attack with 2 goals in 4 games, showing potential to score.
Primeira Liga 26/272 goals in 4 appearances, 0.5 goals/game
Analysis
Nacional's midfield and defensive contributions stand out, with players like Wesley Gasolina and Léo Santos providing both goals and assists at rates well above the league average. Their ability to score and create chances, especially at home, gives them a clear tactical advantage. Alverca's top scorer Vivaldo Semedo has shown promise, but the team's overall struggles suggest they will find it difficult to keep up with Nacional's attacking prowess.
Key facts
- 1.Nacional are 10th in the league with 4 points from 4 games (W1 D1 L2).
- 2.Alverca are 16th with 2 points from 5 games (W0 D2 L3).
- 3.Nacional have a superior goal difference of +5 compared to Alverca.
- 4.Nacional average 1.00 points per game, while Alverca average 0.40.
- 5.Wesley Gasolina has scored 1 goal in 4 appearances with a strong home scoring rate.
- 6.Léo Santos contributes both goals and assists at a high rate for a defender.
- 7.Vivaldo Semedo is Alverca's top scorer with 2 goals in 4 games.
- 8.No confirmed absences for either team, so full squads expected.
Prediction
We predict Nacional to take a strong 2-0 lead by halftime and extend their dominance to finish 4-1. The data supports a confident home win, with Nacional's superior form and goal-scoring ability likely to overwhelm Alverca.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Nacional
Away — Alverca
The verdict
In summary, Nacional's combination of attacking midfield strength and defensive solidity should see them comfortably through this fixture. Alverca will need to improve significantly to challenge, but for now, the prediction is a clear 4-1 victory for Nacional.
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Bojang
Yellow Card
Chissumba
Assist: Chiquinho
Camara
Assist: Diogo Filipe Spencer Marques
Camara
Assist: Diogo Filipe Spencer Marques
Jensen
Júnior
Camara
Yellow Card
Dias
Chiquinho
Figueiredo
Gavriel
Camara
Diogo Filipe Spencer Marques
Yellow Card
Pablo Ruan
Gui
James
Matchoi Djaló
Match Statistics
Nacional
4-3-3Starting XI
- 1Renato BellucciG
- 6Matheus DiasM
- 7M. JensenF
- 8Miguel BaezaM
- 10Daniel JúniorM
- 11S. GavrielF
- 21W. KokoloD
- 33Francisco GonçalvesD
- 38Zé VitorD
- 52Wesley GasolinaD
- 99Pablo RuanF
Substitutes
- 2Daniel Isai de la Cruz de la CruzD
- 9A. ObandoF
- 12Song Min-KyuF
- 13João GonçalvesG
- 14Ivanildo FernandesD
- 15C. LabidiM
- 17F. NavaF
- 20Matchoi DjalóF
- 23Mateus IseppeM
- 26Joel da SilvaM
- 50KevynG
- 88DeivisonM
Alverca
3-4-3Starting XI
- 4Y. BojangD
- 6D. GuiM
- 10ChiquinhoF
- 12I. JamesD
- 19D. CamaraF
- 20Diogo Filipe Spencer MarquesM
- 21Sergi GómezD
- 22FigueiredoF
- 25Ian LuccasM
- 31Matheus MendesG
- 55Francisco ChissumbaM
Substitutes
- 7André VidigalM
- 9Vivaldo SemedoF
- 11C. NuozziF
- 15I. JulianD
- 17S. MerhegF
- 18Z. KassaryM
- 23André PauloG
- 26Matheus FrançaF
- 27Toni TamaritF
- 35RayanM
- 91JhonatanG
- 93Zé RafaelM
Nacional
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zé Vitor | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| W. Kokolo | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 0/1 |
| Matchoi Djaló | F | 44 | 6.9 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | — | — |
| M. Jensen | F | 46 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Francisco Gonçalves | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Song Min-Kyu | F | 44 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 2/2 |
| Pablo Ruan | F | 78 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| A. Obando | F | 21 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| Wesley Gasolina | D | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| F. Nava | F | 12 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Miguel Baeza | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| C. Labidi | M | 36 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| Renato Bellucci | G | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Daniel Júnior | M | 46 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| S. Gavriel | F | 69 | 6.1 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 2/6 |
| Matheus Dias | M | 54 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Joel da Silva | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kevyn | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mateus Iseppe | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Deivison | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Gonçalves | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ivanildo Fernandes | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Isai de la Cruz de la Cruz | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Alverca
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Camara | F | 72 | 8.6 | 2 | — | 4 | 4 | — | 0/2 |
| Diogo Filipe Spencer Marques | M | 90 | 8.3 | — | 2 | — | — | 3 | 0/2 |
| Francisco Chissumba | M | 90 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1/3 |
| Chiquinho | F | 65 | 7.0 | — | 1 | — | — | 3 | 2/5 |
| I. James | D | 79 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Sergi Gómez | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Y. Bojang | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Nuozzi | F | 11 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Vivaldo Semedo | F | 18 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Matheus França | F | 25 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rayan | M | 11 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Figueiredo | F | 66 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2/2 |
| D. Gui | M | 79 | 6.4 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Matheus Mendes | G | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ian Luccas | M | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/3 |
| André Vidigal | M | 24 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| I. Julian | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Zé Rafael | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jhonatan | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| André Paulo | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Merheg | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Toni Tamarit | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Z. Kassary | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Nacional vs Alverca?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Nacional to win against Alverca.
- What score did Fipster predict for Nacional vs Alverca?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Nacional 4–1 Alverca.
- What were the win probabilities for Nacional vs Alverca?
- Fipster's model gave Nacional a 85% chance of winning, Alverca a 7% chance, and a 8% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 85% confidence — a high-confidence call.