Moreirense vs Maritimo
Moreirense storms past Maritimo with commanding win
A dominant home display sees Moreirense secure a 3-1 victory against the odds.
Moreirense took control early with Manuel Ascenção Bebiano Mendonça and L. Vonić scoring in the first half to build a strong lead. Despite Romain Correia pulling one back for Maritimo after the break, Moreirense sealed the win with a late penalty from A. Duville-Parsemain. This result defied Fipster's high-confidence prediction of an away win, delivering a surprise home triumph instead.
Outcome probability
As the Portuguese league season progresses, Moreirense and Maritimo face off in what promises to be a competitive fixture. Both sides have had mixed starts, but Maritimo's slightly better form suggests they might just have the edge in this encounter.
Match factors
Maritimo's Midfield Creativity vs Moreirense's Defense
Maritimo's creative midfielders like João Veloso and Martín Tejón have strong assist and key pass records, likely to exploit Moreirense's defensive vulnerabilities.
Kiko's Above Average Scoring Threat from Defense
Kiko's 1 goal in 4 games exceeds league average for defenders, adding an extra scoring dimension for Moreirense.
João Veloso's Recent Goal and Assist Form
Veloso has scored and assisted recently, showing good form and minutes, increasing his scoring and assisting chances.
Full Squad Availability for Both Teams
No confirmed injuries or suspensions for either team, so all key players are available to influence the match.
Maritimo's Better Away Scoring Rate
Maritimo averages 1.5 goals away vs Moreirense's 0.67 at home, supporting the predicted away win.
The context
Moreirense currently sit 13th in the league with 4 points from 5 games, while Maritimo are a bit more comfortable in 8th place with 7 points. Maritimo also boast a superior goal difference and points-per-game ratio, hinting at their stronger overall performance so far this season.
Key insights
João Veloso
Maritimo
Veloso's recent goal and assist form make him a key creative threat, especially away from home.
Primeira Liga 26/271 goal and 1 assist in 4 appearances, 56.25 avg mins/game
Kiko
Moreirense
Kiko offers an above-average scoring threat from defence, adding an extra dimension to Moreirense's attack.
Primeira Liga 26/271 goal in 4 appearances, 86.75 avg mins/game
Martín Tejón
Maritimo
Tejón's creativity and set-piece prowess bolster Maritimo's midfield effectiveness.
Primeira Liga 26/271 assist in 5 appearances, 85.8 avg mins/game
Analysis
Maritimo's midfield creativity, led by João Veloso and Martín Tejón, is likely to challenge Moreirense's defence. Veloso, in particular, has been in good form with a goal and an assist in four appearances, showing his ability to influence games away from home. Moreirense's defender Kiko offers an attacking threat with his above-average scoring rate for a defender, but Maritimo's better away scoring record and overall momentum give them the tactical advantage. Both teams have full squads available, so expect a well-contested match with some disciplinary moments, as suggested by the predicted four cards.
Key facts
- 1.Moreirense are 13th with 4 points from 5 games (W1 D1 L3).
- 2.Maritimo are 8th with 7 points from 5 games (W2 D1 L2).
- 3.Maritimo have a better goal difference (+6) than Moreirense this season.
- 4.Maritimo average 1.40 points per game compared to Moreirense's 0.80.
- 5.Maritimo have a stronger away scoring rate (1.5 goals per away game).
- 6.Moreirense's defender Kiko has scored 1 goal in 4 games, above league average for defenders.
- 7.João Veloso has contributed 1 goal and 1 assist in 4 appearances, showing good form.
- 8.No confirmed injuries or suspensions for either team.
Prediction
The prediction is for Maritimo to take an early lead and maintain it, with a halftime score of 0-1. Moreirense will respond, but Maritimo should clinch the win 2-1 by fulltime. The match is expected to be competitive with around four cards shown, reflecting the intensity on the pitch.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Moreirense
Away — Maritimo
The verdict
In summary, Maritimo's superior form and creative midfield are expected to secure them a narrow victory over Moreirense. While the home side will fight hard, the visitors' edge in attack and consistency should see them through to all three points.
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Rodrigo Andrade
Yellow Card
Kiko Bondoso
Yellow Card
Ascenção Bebiano Mendonça
Assist: Andrade
Vonić
Assist: Kiko Bondoso
Rodrigo Andrade
Limbombe
Dominguez
Yellow Card
Vonić
Kiko Bondoso
John
Danilović
Correia
Ascenção Bebiano Mendonça
Tejón
Maracás
Raphael Guzzo
Duville-Parsemain
Penalty
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | +13 | 18 |
| 10 |  Alverca | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 11 |  Maritimo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 8 |
| 12 |  Moreirense | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 8 |
| 13 |  Famalicao | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 7 |
Match Statistics
Moreirense
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 7Manuel Ascenção Bebiano MendonçaM
- 8M. StjepanovićM
- 10Kiko BondosoM
- 13André FerreiraG
- 19Tiago AndradeM
- 23N. JohnM
- 26MaracásD
- 27KikoD
- 66Gilberto BatistaD
- 76Dinis PintoD
- 79L. VonićF
Substitutes
- 1AranhaG
- 2Leandro Henrique Sousa SantosD
- 4Kevyn MonteiroD
- 9A. Duville-ParsemainF
- 11LandersonF
- 17Álvaro MartínezD
- 21Rodri AlonsoM
- 25Afonso AssisM
- 28Chipyoka SongaF
- 99MaranhãoF
Maritimo
4-3-3Starting XI
- 2Igor JuliãoD
- 4Rafael FernandesD
- 6Rodrigo AndradeM
- 10Martín TejónF
- 13Alfonso PastorG
- 14Raphael GuzzoM
- 17Adrián ButzkeF
- 18V. DanilovićM
- 23Paulo HenriqueD
- 35B. LimbombeF
- 44Romain CorreiaD
Substitutes
- 1Gonçalo TabuaçoG
- 5Nilton VarelaD
- 8M. DominguezM
- 12M. BassouaminaF
- 15Tomás TavaresD
- 21I. AlaniM
- 22G. SzalaiD
- 27S. BambaF
- 30Fran VieitesG
- 66I. AyumaM
- 90Maurice Osei BoakyeF
Moreirense
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Vonić | F | 61 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | — | — |
| A. Duville-Parsemain | F | 29 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Tiago Andrade | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0/2 |
| Maracás | D | 81 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gilberto Batista | D | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Manuel Ascenção Bebiano Mendonça | M | 81 | 7.0 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| Kiko Bondoso | M | 61 | 7.0 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Kiko | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Kevyn Monteiro | D | 9 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| André Ferreira | G | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. John | M | 69 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rodri Alonso | M | 21 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Stjepanović | M | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dinis Pinto | D | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Chipyoka Songa | F | 9 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Landerson | F | 29 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| Álvaro Martínez | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Aranha | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Leandro Henrique Sousa Santos | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Afonso Assis | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Maranhão | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Maritimo
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romain Correia | D | 90 | 7.8 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| B. Limbombe | F | 46 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Raphael Guzzo | M | 81 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 4 | — |
| Rafael Fernandes | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Martín Tejón | F | 81 | 6.5 | — | — | 5 | — | — | 1/2 |
| Adrián Butzke | F | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/3 |
| V. Danilović | M | 71 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Bamba | F | 19 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Bassouamina | F | 9 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Maurice Osei Boakye | F | 9 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/2 |
| Igor Julião | D | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Paulo Henrique | D | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| Rodrigo Andrade | M | 46 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| I. Ayuma | M | 44 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alfonso Pastor | G | 90 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Dominguez | M | 44 | 5.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gonçalo Tabuaço | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fran Vieites | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Alani | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nilton Varela | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tomás Tavares | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Szalai | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Moreirense vs Maritimo?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Maritimo to win against Moreirense.
- What score did Fipster predict for Moreirense vs Maritimo?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Moreirense 1–2 Maritimo.
- What were the win probabilities for Moreirense vs Maritimo?
- Fipster's model gave Moreirense a 7% chance of winning, Maritimo a 85% chance, and a 8% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 85% confidence — a high-confidence call.