Moreirense vs GIL Vicente
Gil Vicente snatch late penalty win
Walace's 90th-minute spot-kick seals a narrow victory away at Moreirense.
In a match that defied expectations, Gil Vicente edged out Moreirense 1-0 thanks to Walace's decisive penalty right on the 90-minute mark. Despite Fipster's high-confidence prediction of a 3-1 home win, it was the visitors who held firm and stole the points in a tight contest.
Outcome probability
As the regular season unfolds, Moreirense and GIL Vicente prepare to face off in what promises to be an engaging encounter. Both sides have shown glimpses of quality, but Moreirense's home performances and attacking depth give them the edge in this fixture.
Match factors
Moreirense's attacking midfielders in good scoring form
Midfielders Manuel Ascenção and Nile John have scored recently, adding goal threats beyond strikers
Moreirense's home scoring rate supports predicted 3 goals
Moreirense averages 1.7 goals per home game, above league average, boosting scorer probabilities
Gil Vicente's Héctor Hernández in strong recent scoring form
Héctor Hernández has 3 goals in 5 games and 1 assist, key to their goal threat
No confirmed injuries for Moreirense or Gil Vicente
Full squads available, maximizing attacking options for both teams
The context
This match is part of the Regular Season - 8 phase of the competition. Moreirense currently sit 13th in the league with 7 points from 6 games, while GIL Vicente are slightly better placed in 8th with 8 points. Historically, Moreirense have a slight upper hand in their head-to-head record, having won 8 of their 17 meetings against GIL Vicente, with 4 draws and 5 losses.
Key insights
Manuel Ascenção Bebiano Mendonça
Moreirense
Midfielder Manuel Ascenção has been contributing goals at home, scoring 0.5 goals per game in his last five home appearances, adding valuable attacking support.
Primeira Liga 26/271 goal in 4 appearances, 79 mins avg, 0.5 goals/game at home last 5
Leonardo Vonić
Moreirense
Leonardo Vonić boasts a strong home scoring rate with 0.5 goals per game in recent home matches, making him a key threat in attack.
Primeira Liga 26/271 goal in 1 appearance, 61 mins avg, 0.5 goals/game at home last 5
Héctor Hernández
GIL Vicente
Héctor Hernández is in fine form with 3 goals and 1 assist in 5 games, spearheading GIL Vicente's offensive efforts.
Primeira Liga 26/273 goals in 5 appearances, 64.4 mins avg, 0.4 goals/game last 5
Analysis
Moreirense's attacking midfielders, including Manuel Ascenção, have been in good scoring form, complementing the efforts of their forwards. Their home scoring rate of 1.7 goals per game supports the prediction of a 3-goal haul in this match. On the other side, GIL Vicente's Héctor Hernández remains a key threat with 3 goals and an assist in 5 appearances, but the visitors may struggle to contain Moreirense's offensive momentum. Both teams have full squads available, ensuring a competitive match with plenty of attacking intent.
Key facts
- 1.Moreirense have won 8 of 17 head-to-head matches against GIL Vicente.
- 2.Head-to-head matches average 2.7 total goals, aligning with the predicted 4 goals here.
- 3.Moreirense rank 13th with 7 points from 6 games; GIL Vicente are 8th with 8 points.
- 4.Moreirense average 1.7 goals per home game, above the league average.
- 5.Héctor Hernández is GIL Vicente's top scorer with 3 goals in 5 appearances.
Prediction
The forecast sees Moreirense taking an early lead to go 1-0 up at halftime, maintaining their advantage to finish the match 3-1 winners. The game is expected to feature around four goals in total, with a moderate number of four cards likely to be shown, reflecting a competitive but fair contest.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Moreirense
Away — GIL Vicente
The verdict
In summary, Moreirense's home advantage and attacking prowess should see them through to a confident 3-1 victory over GIL Vicente. While the visitors have their key players in form, the home side's consistency and goal-scoring depth make them the favourites to claim all three points.
Prediction generated 20 Sep 2026, 16:32 UTC · Fipster Model v1.160
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Esgaio
Yellow Card
Lausen
Yellow Card
Ascenção Bebiano Mendonça
Yellow Card
Lausen
Kiko Bondoso
John
Pinto Martins
Yellow Card
Kaba
Yellow Card
Héctor Hernández
Pinto Martins
Batista
Yellow Card
Ascenção Bebiano Mendonça
Murilo
Santi García
Vonić
Maracás
Yellow Card
Walace
Penalty
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | +16 | 24 |
| 5 |  Arouca | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | +5 | 17 |
| 6 |  GIL Vicente | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 14 |
| 7 |  Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 14 |
| 11 |  Guimaraes | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 |  Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 |  Maritimo | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 8 |
Match Statistics
Moreirense
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 7Manuel Ascenção Bebiano MendonçaM
- 10Kiko BondosoM
- 13André FerreiraG
- 19Tiago AndradeM
- 23N. JohnM
- 26MaracásD
- 27KikoD
- 65Guilherme LiberatoM
- 66Gilberto BatistaD
- 76Dinis PintoD
- 79L. VonićF
Substitutes
- 1AranhaG
- 2Leandro Henrique Sousa SantosD
- 4Kevyn MonteiroD
- 8M. StjepanovićM
- 11LandersonF
- 17Álvaro MartínezD
- 20João VelosoM
- 21Rodri AlonsoM
- 28Chipyoka SongaF
- 32JoséD
- 99MaranhãoF
GIL Vicente
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 4M. Elimbi GilbertD
- 10Santi GarcíaM
- 12A. LausenM
- 20Gil Pinto MartinsM
- 23Héctor HernándezF
- 30LucãoG
- 39Jonathan BuatuD
- 45David MoreiraD
- 47Ricardo EsgaioD
- 77MuriloM
- 86Diogo Ferreira PriosteM
Substitutes
- 2José SilvaD
- 3EspigaresD
- 7T. TouréF
- 9WalaceF
- 11Joelson FernandesF
- 17Sergio BermejoF
- 19GuilhermeM
- 27A. MoreiraF
- 32M. FernándezM
- 82Gonçalo Maia PereiraM
- 94SamuelG
- 99M. KabaF
Moreirense
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kiko | D | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Guilherme Liberato | M | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4/5 |
| Maracás | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Tiago Andrade | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 3 | — | 1 | 4/6 |
| Dinis Pinto | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 3/3 |
| André Ferreira | G | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Veloso | M | 24 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Rodri Alonso | M | 24 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Vonić | F | 86 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Maranhão | F | 4 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kiko Bondoso | M | 66 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Gilberto Batista | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Landerson | F | 13 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| N. John | M | 66 | 6.0 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Manuel Ascenção Bebiano Mendonça | M | 77 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Leandro Henrique Sousa Santos | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Aranha | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| José | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Stjepanović | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Chipyoka Songa | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Álvaro Martínez | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kevyn Monteiro | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
GIL Vicente
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walace | F | 7 | 7.8 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| M. Elimbi Gilbert | D | 90 | 7.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| David Moreira | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2/3 |
| Jonathan Buatu | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Murilo | M | 83 | 7.2 | — | — | 3 | — | 3 | 2/5 |
| Diogo Ferreira Prioste | M | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Guilherme | M | 18 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Lucão | G | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Joelson Fernandes | F | 18 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Santi García | M | 83 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 0/4 |
| Ricardo Esgaio | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| T. Touré | F | 7 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gil Pinto Martins | M | 72 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Héctor Hernández | F | 72 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Kaba | F | 26 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| A. Lausen | M | 64 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 0/1 |
| M. Fernández | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Espigares | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sergio Bermejo | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| José Silva | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gonçalo Maia Pereira | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Moreira | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Samuel | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Moreirense vs GIL Vicente?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Moreirense to win against GIL Vicente.
- What score did Fipster predict for Moreirense vs GIL Vicente?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Moreirense 3–1 GIL Vicente.
- What were the win probabilities for Moreirense vs GIL Vicente?
- Fipster's model gave Moreirense a 95% chance of winning, GIL Vicente a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.