Monza vs Udinese
Udinese edge Monza in five-goal thriller
A late flurry of goals sees Udinese snatch a narrow win at Monza.
Udinese triumphed 3-2 over Monza in a pulsating Serie A encounter, with J. Piotrowski, H. Kamara, and J. Ekkelenkamp all finding the net for the visitors. Monza fought back through A. Colpani and Gustavo Varela, but it wasn't enough to prevent Udinese from taking the spoils. This result defied Fipster's low-confidence prediction of a narrow home win, proving the match was far more open and dramatic than anticipated.
Outcome probability
The new Serie A season kicks off with Monza hosting Udinese in what promises to be a closely contested encounter. Both teams are eager to start their campaigns on a positive note, with Monza looking to make a statement in their return to the top flight and Udinese aiming to build on last season's solid mid-table finish.
Key insights
- G
Gustavo Varela
Monza
New signing expected to add creativity and stability to Monza's midfield.
Serie A 26/27No current season stats available.
- G
G. Chakvetadze
Udinese
Summer arrival to bolster Udinese's attacking options.
Serie A 26/27No current season stats available.
The context
Monza enter this fixture as the newly promoted side, stepping up to Serie A after a successful campaign in the lower division. They have bolstered their squad with the signing of Gustavo Varela, hoping his presence will add some much-needed quality. Udinese, meanwhile, come into the match with established Serie A experience and have made some summer adjustments, including the arrival of G. Chakvetadze and the loan departure of T. Kristensen.
Key facts
- 1.Monza are newly promoted to Serie A this season.
- 2.Monza have signed Gustavo Varela ahead of the campaign.
- 3.Udinese finished 10th in Serie A last season with 50 points from 38 games.
- 4.Udinese have added G. Chakvetadze and loaned out T. Kristensen in summer business.
- 5.The predicted halftime score is 0-0, indicating a cautious start.
- 6.A narrow 1-0 win for Monza is the most likely fulltime result.
- 7.Three total cards are expected in the match, suggesting competitive play.
Analysis
This match is expected to be a tight affair, with both sides cautious in their approach. The prediction leans towards a narrow home win for Monza, reflecting the typical pattern of a goalless first half followed by a solitary goal deciding the game. While Udinese have the advantage of Serie A experience, Monza's home advantage and fresh enthusiasm could tip the scales. The forecast anticipates a total of three cards, suggesting a competitive but controlled match.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Monza
Away — Udinese
Prediction
The forecast calls for a 1-0 victory for Monza, with the halftime score remaining 0-0. This scoreline represents the most probable outcome, indicating a match where defenses hold firm early on before Monza find a breakthrough. Despite the low confidence in the prediction, the home side's slight edge in probabilities makes them the favourites to claim all three points.
The verdict
As the Serie A season gets underway, this fixture offers a glimpse of the challenges ahead for both teams. Monza will be keen to prove their worth at this level, while Udinese will look to assert their experience. Expect a tight, tactical battle with Monza just about edging it in the end.
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Piotrowski
Assist: Kamara
Colpani
Assist: Ricardo Mangas
Ekkelenkamp
Kamara
Lucchesi
Yellow Card
Ondoa
Unknown
Piotrowski
Gómez
Lucchesi
Gustavo Varela
Assist: Akinsanmiro
Davis
Ebosse
Colpani
Birindelli
Vojvoda
Match Statistics
Monza
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 3L. LucchesiD
- 7Ricardo MangasM
- 8M. OndoaM
- 9Gustavo VarelaF
- 10P. CutroneM
- 19S. BirindelliM
- 20D. ThiamG
- 28A. ColpaniM
- 44A. CarboniD
- 60E. KouadioD
Substitutes
- 6V. AntovD
- 11O. ForsonF
- 14E. AkinsanmiroM
- 15F. Delli CarriD
- 21L. ColomboM
- 24A. BakouneD
- 46Jay RobinsonF
- 47Dany MotaF
- 90M. FolorunshoM
Udinese
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 8J. KarlströmM
- 9K. DavisF
- 11H. KamaraM
- 14J. AbankwahD
- 23M. VojvodaM
- 24J. PiotrowskiM
- 28O. SoletD
- 32J. EkkelenkampM
- 40M. OkoyeG
- 46Unai GómezM
- 77E. EbosseD
Substitutes
- 2S. GoglichidzeD
- 4S. LovrićM
- 6Oier ZarragaM
- 7I. GueyeF
- 13N. BertolaD
- 20J. ArizalaM
- 38L. MillerM
- 41B. MrozekG
- 45G. VinciatiF
- 79D. PejičićM
- 93D. PadelliG
Monza
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gustavo Varela | F | 90 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| A. Colpani | M | 84 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | — |
| E. Akinsanmiro | M | 36 | 6.7 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| O. Forson | F | 6 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Dany Mota | F | 6 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Ricardo Mangas | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | 1 | — | — | 3 | 0/2 |
| F. Delli Carri | D | 29 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Kouadio | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| A. Carboni | D | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| M. Ondoa | M | 54 | 6.0 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| P. Cutrone | M | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| M. Folorunsho | M | 36 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Birindelli | M | 84 | 5.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/2 |
| D. Thiam | G | 90 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Lucchesi | D | 61 | 5.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| V. Antov | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jay Robinson | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Bakoune | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Colombo | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Udinese
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H. Kamara | M | 90 | 7.8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| J. Piotrowski | M | 60 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| J. Ekkelenkamp | M | 90 | 7.4 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | — | 0/1 |
| O. Solet | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| E. Ebosse | D | 68 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| I. Gueye | F | 22 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Oier Zarraga | M | 30 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Unai Gómez | M | 60 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| K. Davis | F | 68 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| J. Karlström | M | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| N. Bertola | D | 22 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Vojvoda | M | 85 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| J. Abankwah | D | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Okoye | G | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Arizala | M | 5 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Miller | M | 30 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Padelli | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Vinciati | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Goglichidze | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Mrozek | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Lovrić | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Pejičić | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Monza vs Udinese?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Monza to win against Udinese.
- What score did Fipster predict for Monza vs Udinese?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Monza 1–0 Udinese.
- What were the win probabilities for Monza vs Udinese?
- Fipster's model gave Monza a 35% chance of winning, Udinese a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.