Monza vs Sassuolo
Monza clinch narrow win with Varela brace
Gustavo Varela's double, including a penalty, secures all three points for Monza against Sassuolo.
Monza edged out Sassuolo 2-1 in a closely contested Serie A clash, thanks to Gustavo Varela's early second-half brace, including a penalty at 63'. Sassuolo's Vasilije Adžić pulled one back late on at 88', but it wasn't enough to salvage a point. Fipster's prediction of a home win was spot on, though the exact scoreline proved slightly optimistic.
Outcome probability
The new Serie A season kicks off with Monza hosting Sassuolo in what promises to be a lively encounter. Both teams are eager to make a strong start, with Monza looking to announce themselves in the top flight after promotion, while Sassuolo aim to build on their established presence.
Key facts
- 1.Monza are newly promoted to Serie A this season.
- 2.Sassuolo finished last season with 49 points from 38 games.
- 3.Monza have strengthened their squad with three new signings: P. Cutrone, I. Touré, and Gustavo Varela.
- 4.Sassuolo have added S. Esposito and K. Bowie on loan, plus D. Ćaleta-Car on a free transfer.
- 5.Sassuolo lost A. Pinamonti and T. Muharemović during the summer.
- 6.The predicted final score is 3-2 in favour of Monza.
- 7.This is the first competitive match of the season for both teams.
- 8.The home win outcome has the highest aggregate probability at approximately 0.435.
The context
This fixture marks the first competitive match of the season for both sides. Monza, newly promoted, face a Sassuolo side that finished mid-table last term with 49 points from 38 games. The two teams did not compete in the same division last season, making this an intriguing cross-division opener.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Monza
Away — Sassuolo
Analysis
Monza have bolstered their squad with the signings of P. Cutrone, I. Touré, and Gustavo Varela, adding fresh attacking options and depth. Sassuolo, meanwhile, have brought in S. Esposito and K. Bowie on loan, and added D. Ćaleta-Car on a free transfer, while losing A. Pinamonti and T. Muharemović. The predicted 3-2 scoreline suggests an open game with both sides finding the net, but Monza's home advantage and new additions could tip the balance in their favour.
Prediction
The forecast is for a narrow home win, with Monza edging Sassuolo 3-2. The home win outcome holds the highest probability, and the 3-2 scoreline is the most likely among home victories. Expect a competitive match with goals aplenty and a tight finish.
The verdict
Monza's debut in Serie A this season looks set to be a thrilling affair against Sassuolo. With both teams eager to start on a positive note, fans can anticipate an entertaining match that could set the tone for the campaign ahead.
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Kouadio
Yellow Card
Gustavo Varela
Assist: Birindelli
Ricardo Mangas
Akinsanmiro
Cutrone
Gustavo Varela
Penalty
Matić
Thorstvedt
Esposito
Berardi
Folorunsho
Yellow Card
Bakola
Robinson
Lipani
Yellow Card
Birindelli
Yellow Card
Adžić
Gustavo Varela
Yellow Card
Birindelli
Match Statistics
Monza
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 1N. TörnqvistG
- 3L. LucchesiD
- 7Ricardo MangasM
- 9Gustavo VarelaF
- 10P. CutroneF
- 14E. AkinsanmiroM
- 19S. BirindelliM
- 44A. CarboniD
- 46Jay RobinsonF
- 60E. KouadioD
- 90M. FolorunshoM
Substitutes
- 2S. GoglichidzeD
- 5Y. MayeD
- 6V. AntovD
- 8M. OndoaM
- 11O. ForsonF
- 16C. NgongeF
- 20D. ThiamG
- 21L. ColomboM
- 22E. ZeballosF
- 24A. BakouneD
- 28A. ColpaniM
- 43A. StrajnarG
- 47Dany MotaF
- 80M. MoutM
Sassuolo
4-3-3Starting XI
- 3J. DoigD
- 10D. BerardiF
- 15D. Ćaleta-CarD
- 16F. LeysenD
- 18N. MatićM
- 42K. ThorstvedtM
- 45A. LaurientéF
- 46S. CinquegranoD
- 49A. MurićG
- 50D. BakolaM
- 94S. EspositoF
Substitutes
- 8A. GhionM
- 9K. BowieF
- 12G. SatalinoG
- 17Vasilije AdžićM
- 19L. SkjellerupF
- 20I. Van der BremptD
- 25B. DomínguezF
- 26C. OdenthalD
- 33Rafael ObradorD
- 35L. LipaniM
- 55I. SulemanaM
- 77N. PieriniF
- 80S. TuratiG
Monza
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gustavo Varela | F | 92 | 8.3 | 2 | — | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2/4 |
| Noel Törnqvist | G | 92 | 7.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Eddy Kouadio | D | 92 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Andrea Carboni | D | 92 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Samuele Birindelli(C) | M | 92 | 7.0 | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1/1 |
| Jay Robinson | F | 82 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1/4 |
| Ebenezer Akinsanmiro | M | 56 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Lorenzo Lucchesi | D | 92 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Ricardo Mangas | M | 56 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Michael Folorunsho | M | 92 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Patrick Cutrone | F | 56 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Omari Forson | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cyril Ngonge | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Valentin Antov | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Andrea Colpani | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Demba Thiam | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Exequiel Zeballos | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Saba Goglichidze | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Aljaz Strajnar | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Leonardo Colombo | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yvan Maye | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Adam Bakoune | D | 36 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Dany Mota | F | 36 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/3 |
| Mathis Mout | M | 10 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Manga Foe Ondoa | M | 36 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
Sassuolo
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arijanet Murić | G | 92 | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Armand Laurienté | F | 92 | 7.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1/4 |
| Darryl Bakola | M | 82 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0/1 |
| Nemanja Matić | M | 64 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2/2 |
| Duje Ćaleta-Car | D | 92 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fedde Leysen | D | 92 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| Kristian Thorstvedt | M | 64 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Domenico Berardi(C) | F | 72 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | — |
| Simone Cinquegrano | D | 92 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| Josh Doig | D | 92 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Sebastiano Esposito | F | 72 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Giacomo Satalino | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stefano Turati | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nicholas Pierini | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Andrea Ghion | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cas Odenthal | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ignace Van der Brempt | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rafael Obrador | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ibrahim Sulemana | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vasilije Adžić | M | 20 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Benjamín Domínguez | F | 20 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Luca Lipani | M | 28 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Laurs Skjellerup | F | 10 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kieron Bowie | F | 28 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 0/1 |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Monza vs Sassuolo?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Monza to win against Sassuolo.
- What score did Fipster predict for Monza vs Sassuolo?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Monza 3–2 Sassuolo.
- What were the win probabilities for Monza vs Sassuolo?
- Fipster's model gave Monza a 46% chance of winning, Sassuolo a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 46% confidence — a medium-confidence call.