Monza vs Cagliari
Monza steamroll Cagliari in dominant display
A commanding 4-0 victory sees Monza leave no doubt on home turf.
Monza put on a clinical show against Cagliari, with Gustavo Varela starring by netting twice, complemented by goals from E. Kouadio and Jay Robinson. The hosts took control before the break and never looked back, cruising to a comprehensive 4-0 win. This result was a surprise, defying Fipster's high-confidence prediction of a narrow away win for Cagliari.
Outcome probability
Monza and Cagliari face off in the seventh round of Serie A, with contrasting fortunes so far this season. Monza have struggled to find consistency, while Cagliari have impressed with their attacking prowess and solid performances.
Match factors
Monza's Gustavo Varela is a potent home scorer
Varela averages 1.5 goals per home game, making him a key threat against Cagliari's defense
Cagliari's strong away form supports predicted win
Cagliari has won 3 consecutive away games scoring in each, showing good momentum
Daniel Maldini's consistent scoring boosts Cagliari attack
Maldini scored 4 goals in last 5 games, including away matches, indicating strong form
Cagliari missing key defender Riyad Idrissi weakens defense
Idrissi's confirmed absence due to jumper's knee reduces defensive stability
Monza's Birindelli and Mangas provide creative outlets
Both players have 2 assists each, key to unlocking Cagliari's defense
The context
Monza sit 16th in the league with just 4 points from 6 games, managing only one win and one draw. In contrast, Cagliari are comfortably placed 4th with 13 points, boasting a strong goal difference and a points-per-game rate more than three times that of Monza.
Key insights
Gustavo Varela
Monza
Varela is a potent home scorer, averaging 1.5 goals per game and leading Monza's attack.
Serie A 26/274 goals in 5 appearances, 0.8 avg goals/game
Daniel Maldini
Cagliari
Maldini's consistent scoring, with 4 goals in 6 games, boosts Cagliari's attacking threat especially away from home.
Serie A 26/274 goals in 6 appearances, 0.67 avg goals/game
Samuele Birindelli
Monza
Birindelli provides creative outlets with 2 assists in 6 games and is key in set-piece situations.
Serie A 26/272 assists in 6 appearances, 0.33 avg assists/game
Analysis
Cagliari's superior league position and form give them the edge here. Their attack, led by Daniel Maldini who has scored 4 goals in 6 games, has been effective both home and away. Monza's Gustavo Varela is a key threat at home, averaging 1.5 goals per game, but Cagliari's defence, despite missing a key defender, looks set to contain him. The predicted halftime score of 0-1 suggests Cagliari will start strong, with Monza pushing back in the second half but ultimately falling short.
Key facts
- 1.Monza are 16th with 4 points from 6 games (W1 D1 L4).
- 2.Cagliari are 4th with 13 points from 6 games (W4 D1 L1).
- 3.Cagliari have a +9 goal difference advantage over Monza.
- 4.Cagliari average 2.17 points per game, Monza 0.67.
- 5.Gustavo Varela leads Monza with 4 goals in 5 games, strong home form.
- 6.Daniel Maldini leads Cagliari with 4 goals in 6 games, consistent scorer.
- 7.Cagliari have won their last 3 away games, scoring in each.
Prediction
We expect Cagliari to secure a 2-1 away win, with an early goal setting the tone. Monza will respond but struggle to overturn the deficit. The match is likely to see around four cards, reflecting a competitive but controlled encounter.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Monza
Away — Cagliari
The verdict
Cagliari's consistent form and attacking threat make them favourites to take all three points. Monza will fight hard, especially at home, but the gulf in quality and recent results points to an away victory in this Serie A fixture.
Prediction generated 15 Oct 2026, 06:21 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Kouadio
Assist: Mota
Gustavo Varela
Assist: Ondoa
M'Bala Nzola
Mota
Robinson
Assist: Gustavo Varela
Maldini
Zé Pedro
Winks
Yellow Card
Gustavo Varela
Kouadio
Winks
Romano
Gustavo Varela
Akinsanmiro
Fadera
Yellow Card
Birindelli
Yellow Card
Robinson
Match Statistics
Monza
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 1N. TörnqvistG
- 2S. GoglichidzeD
- 7Ricardo MangasM
- 8M. OndoaM
- 9Gustavo VarelaF
- 14E. AkinsanmiroM
- 19S. BirindelliM
- 44A. CarboniD
- 46Jay RobinsonM
- 47Dany MotaM
- 60E. KouadioD
Substitutes
- 6V. AntovD
- 10P. CutroneF
- 11O. ForsonF
- 16C. NgongeF
- 20D. ThiamG
- 21L. ColomboM
- 24A. BakouneD
- 26P. CiurriaF
- 28A. ColpaniM
- 43A. StrajnarG
- 80M. MoutM
- 90M. FolorunshoM
Cagliari
4-3-1-2Starting XI
- 1E. CaprileG
- 2Zé PedroD
- 4A. RomanoM
- 6H. WinksM
- 8M. AdopoM
- 15J. RodríguezD
- 18M'Bala NzolaF
- 26Y. MinaD
- 31P. MendyF
- 33A. ObertD
- 70D. MaldiniM
Substitutes
- 9Kevin CarlosF
- 10J. FazziniM
- 12A. SherriG
- 14A. DeiolaM
- 20R. CiervoF
- 21R. GagliardiniM
- 22R. KoflerD
- 23B. RadunovićG
- 24G. AurelioD
- 27J. LitetaM
- 28Y. SugawaraD
- 32Ivan Stoyanov SulevM
- 39A. FaderaF
- 79Y. MassolinM
Monza
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gustavo Varela | F | 81 | 9.7 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1/2 |
| E. Kouadio | D | 81 | 8.6 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| Jay Robinson | M | 87 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2/3 |
| M. Ondoa | M | 90 | 7.8 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 1/3 |
| Dany Mota | M | 64 | 7.7 | — | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1/2 |
| S. Goglichidze | D | 90 | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Törnqvist | G | 90 | 7.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Colpani | M | 26 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| A. Bakoune | D | 9 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ricardo Mangas | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2/3 |
| A. Carboni | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| M. Folorunsho | M | 9 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Akinsanmiro | M | 81 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/4 |
| O. Forson | F | 3 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| P. Cutrone | F | 9 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| S. Birindelli | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/3 |
| A. Strajnar | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Colombo | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Ngonge | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Mout | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| V. Antov | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Thiam | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Ciurria | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Cagliari
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Maldini | M | 67 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 4 | 1/4 |
| Kevin Carlos | F | 23 | 6.8 | — | — | 2 | 2 | — | — |
| J. Rodríguez | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Fadera | F | 37 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| A. Romano | M | 81 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Y. Mina | D | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | — |
| A. Deiola | M | 9 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| M'Bala Nzola | F | 53 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| H. Winks | M | 81 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Zé Pedro | D | 67 | 5.9 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| A. Obert | D | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| J. Liteta | M | 9 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Y. Sugawara | D | 23 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| M. Adopo | M | 90 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| E. Caprile | G | 90 | 5.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Mendy | F | 90 | 5.6 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| Y. Massolin | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Ciervo | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Aurelio | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Radunović | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Sherri | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Gagliardini | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Kofler | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ivan Stoyanov Sulev | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Fazzini | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Monza vs Cagliari?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Cagliari to win against Monza.
- What score did Fipster predict for Monza vs Cagliari?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Monza 1–2 Cagliari.
- What were the win probabilities for Monza vs Cagliari?
- Fipster's model gave Monza a 6% chance of winning, Cagliari a 87% chance, and a 7% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 87% confidence — a high-confidence call.