Mirassol vs Vasco DA Gama
Match recap
Mirassol beat Vasco DA Gama 2–1 in their Serie A fixture. Cuesta and Eduardo scored for Mirassol; Coutinho replied for Vasco DA Gama. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 0.59 for Mirassol versus 0.54 for Vasco DA Gama. Mirassol sit 15th in the Serie A table while Vasco DA Gama are 13th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
3-1 Mirassol win
Actual
2–1
Outcome probability
Mirassol and Vasco DA Gama face off in what promises to be an engaging regular season fixture. Both teams sit close in the league standings, making this a crucial match for momentum and bragging rights.
Match factors
Mirassol's Eduardo leads attacking threat
Eduardo's 6 goals and strong home form give Mirassol a key edge in attack
Igor Formiga's dual threat from defense
Formiga provides 5 assists and 4 goals, boosting Mirassol's offense from defense
Vasco's Gómez consistent goal scorer
Gómez has 5 goals in 24 games, a reliable scoring option for Vasco
Mirassol's recent scoring streak
Mirassol has scored in 4 of last 5 games at home, supporting predicted 3 goals
Mirassol missing key attacker Negueba
Negueba's absence weakens Mirassol's attacking depth, increasing reliance on Eduardo and Edson
The context
This match marks the first round of the regular season, with Mirassol and Vasco DA Gama separated by just two points in the league table. Their recent encounters have been lively affairs, with Mirassol holding a perfect record against Vasco DA Gama in their last three meetings.
Key insights
Eduardo
Mirassol
Eduardo's 6 goals and strong home form give Mirassol a key edge in attack.
Serie A 26/276 goals in 21 appearances, 0.29 goals/game
Igor Formiga
Mirassol
Formiga provides 5 assists and 4 goals, boosting Mirassol's offense from defense.
Serie A 26/275 assists and 4 goals in 26 appearances
- C
Carlos Gómez Hinestroza
Vasco DA Gama
Gómez has 5 goals in 24 games, a reliable scoring option for Vasco.
Serie A 26/275 goals in 24 appearances, 0.21 goals/game
Analysis
Mirassol have demonstrated a clear edge in their head-to-head record, winning all three previous matches against Vasco DA Gama. The average goals per meeting stand at a healthy 3.3, suggesting an open game with plenty of attacking intent. Both sides have similar league form, ranked 14th and 15th respectively, which adds to the competitive balance. Key players like Mirassol's Eduardo, who boasts six goals this season, and defender Igor Formiga, contributing both goals and assists, provide a tactical advantage. Vasco's Carlos Gómez Hinestroza remains a consistent threat with five goals, but Mirassol's recent scoring streak at home supports the prediction of a high-scoring win.
Key facts
- 1.Mirassol have won all 3 previous meetings against Vasco DA Gama with no draws.
- 2.Head-to-head matches average 3.3 total goals (7 for Mirassol, 3 for Vasco DA Gama).
- 3.Mirassol are ranked 15th in their league with 33 points from 29 games.
- 4.Vasco DA Gama are ranked 14th in their league with 35 points from 29 games.
- 5.Eduardo is Mirassol's top scorer with 6 goals this season.
- 6.Igor Formiga leads Mirassol in assists with 5 this season.
- 7.Carlos Gómez Hinestroza is Vasco's top scorer with 5 goals.
Prediction
We anticipate Mirassol to edge out Vasco DA Gama with a 3-1 victory. The halftime scoreline is expected to be level at 1-1, reflecting a competitive start before Mirassol pull away in the second half. The match is likely to see around four cards, indicating a spirited but controlled contest.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Mirassol
Away — Vasco DA Gama
The verdict
Mirassol's attacking prowess and superior head-to-head record make them the favourites to take all three points. Vasco DA Gama will need to tighten their defence and find a way to contain Eduardo and Formiga if they are to avoid defeat. Expect an entertaining match with Mirassol ultimately prevailing 3-1.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 17:18 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Coutinho
Assist: Rodríguez
Cuesta (OG)
Nuno Moreira
Yellow Card
Eduardo
Assist: Alesson
Renato Marques
Eduardo
Nuno Moreira
Rojas
Unknown
Alesson
Piton
Machado
Yellow Card
Cauan Barros
Nathan Fogaça
Yellow Card
Reinaldo
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | -11 | 39 |
| 13 |  Vasco DA Gama | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | -6 | 38 |
| 14 |  Vitoria | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | -11 | 38 |
| 15 |  Mirassol | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 37 |
| 16 |  Internacional | 32 | 8 | 11 | 13 | -4 | 35 |
Match Statistics
Mirassol
4-3-3Starting XI
- 3Willian MachadoD
- 6ReinaldoD
- 11NeguebaF
- 22WalterG
- 32Igor FormigaD
- 33EduardoM
- 34João VictorD
- 77AlessonF
- 78Renato MarquesF
Substitutes
- 4Luiz OtávioD
- 7ShaylonM
- 8DenilsonM
- 9Nathan FogaçaF
- 17Everton GaldinoF
- 21José AldoM
- 23Alex MuralhaG
- 26L. MugniM
- 27A. GaleanoF
- 70Rodrigo FarofaF
- 97RodriguesD
Vasco DA Gama
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1Léo JardimG
- 2J. RodríguezD
- 6Lucas PitonD
- 10Philippe CoutinhoM
- 11A. GómezM
- 17Nuno MoreiraM
- 23Thiago MendesM
- 28J. RojasF
- 30Robert RenanD
- 46C. CuestaD
- 88Cauan BarrosM
Substitutes
- 3Tchê TchêM
- 4A. SaldiviaD
- 7DavidF
- 9Matheus FrançaF
- 12Victor LuísD
- 13Daniel FuzatoG
- 14Guilherme EstrellaM
- 19GBF
- 25Hugo MouraM
- 60V. JoaoF
- 74AndreyF
- 98JPM
Mirassol
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walter | G | 96 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yuri Lara | M | 96 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Eduardo | M | 63 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Willian Machado | D | 96 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| João Victor | D | 96 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Negueba | F | 96 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Alesson | F | 69 | 6.9 | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0/1 |
| Igor Formiga | D | 96 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Renato Marques | F | 63 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| Reinaldo(C) | D | 85 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 3/6 |
| Neto Moura | M | 69 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Carlos Eduardo | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Denilson | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rodrigo | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Mugni | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rodrigues | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alex Muralha | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Shaylon | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luiz Otávio | D | 11 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| José Aldo | M | 27 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Everton Galdino | F | 33 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Antonio Galeano | F | 27 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Nathan Fogaça | F | 33 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
Vasco DA Gama
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Léo Jardim | G | 96 | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Philippe Coutinho(C) | M | 96 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1/3 |
| Cauan Barros | M | 80 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Thiago Mendes | M | 96 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Robert Renan | D | 96 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Andrés Gómez | M | 96 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3/6 |
| Johan Rojas | F | 68 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4/6 |
| Nuno Moreira | M | 68 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/3 |
| Puma Rodríguez | D | 96 | 6.2 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Carlos Cuesta | D | 96 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Piton | D | 74 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Guilherme Estrella | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Victor Luis | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tchê Tchê | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| David | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hugo Moura | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Fuzato | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| JP | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alan Saldivia | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Vitor Silva | F | 22 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 3/3 |
| Matheus França | F | 28 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2/2 |
| Andrey Fernandes de Oliveira Nunes | F | 28 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Gabriel Souza | F | 16 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Mirassol vs Vasco DA Gama?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Mirassol to win against Vasco DA Gama.
- What score did Fipster predict for Mirassol vs Vasco DA Gama?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Mirassol 3–1 Vasco DA Gama.
- What were the win probabilities for Mirassol vs Vasco DA Gama?
- Fipster's model gave Mirassol a 81% chance of winning, Vasco DA Gama a 9% chance, and a 10% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 81% confidence — a high-confidence call.