Mirassol vs Sao Paulo
Sao Paulo snatch draw at Mirassol
A tight 1-1 draw surprises after a high-scoring prediction.
Mirassol and Sao Paulo shared the spoils in a 1-1 draw in Serie A, with an early own goal by Rafael gifting Mirassol the lead before Pedro Lima equalised for Sao Paulo before half-time. This result defied Fipster's high-confidence prediction of a dominant 4-0 home win, proving the match was far more balanced than expected.
Outcome probability
Mirassol and Sao Paulo face off in the 32nd round of the regular season, with both sides close in the league standings. Despite Sao Paulo's slightly better goal difference, Mirassol's home advantage and recent form suggest a dominant performance.
Match factors
Sao Paulo missing key striker Luciano
Luciano, Sao Paulo's top scorer with 9 goals, is confirmed out, weakening their attack significantly
Mirassol's Eduardo in strong scoring form
Eduardo has scored 3 goals in last 5 matches, all at home, boosting Mirassol's attacking threat
Mirassol's defensive contributions from Igor Formiga
Igor Formiga leads Mirassol with 5 assists and strong defensive stats, key in both attack and defense
Mirassol's home scoring streak advantage
Mirassol has scored in all last 5 home games, showing strong home form against Sao Paulo's defense
The context
The two teams have a balanced head-to-head record with four wins each in ten meetings. Mirassol sits 14th with 36 points, while Sao Paulo is 10th with 39 points, indicating a tight league race. However, Sao Paulo will miss their top striker Luciano, which could tip the scales.
Key insights
Eduardo
Mirassol
Eduardo has been in fine form at home, scoring 3 goals in his last 5 matches, making him a key threat.
Serie A 26/276 goals in 22 apps, 3 in last 5 (home strong)
Igor Formiga
Mirassol
Igor Formiga's 5 assists and defensive contributions make him vital in both attack and defence.
Serie A 26/275 assists in 27 apps, 1 in last 5 (home)
Analysis
Mirassol's Eduardo has been in excellent scoring form at home, netting three goals in his last five matches. Defender Igor Formiga's contributions in both attack and defence add to Mirassol's strength. Sao Paulo's attack is weakened without Luciano, and their defence may struggle against Mirassol's consistent home scoring streak.
Key facts
- 1.Mirassol and Sao Paulo have each won 4 of their 10 head-to-head matches.
- 2.Mirassol ranks 14th with 36 points from 31 games (W9 D9 L13).
- 3.Sao Paulo ranks 10th with 39 points from 30 games (W11 D6 L13).
- 4.Sao Paulo has a better goal difference (+8) than Mirassol (-8) this season.
- 5.Mirassol has scored in all of their last 5 home games.
- 6.Sao Paulo's top striker Luciano is out, weakening their attack.
- 7.Eduardo is Mirassol's top scorer with 6 goals, 3 scored in the last 5 home games.
- 8.Igor Formiga leads Mirassol with 5 assists and strong defensive stats.
Prediction
Expect Mirassol to take an early lead, reflected in a 2-0 halftime score, and continue their dominance to finish 4-0. The match is also likely to see around four cards, indicating a competitive but controlled encounter.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Mirassol
Away — Sao Paulo
No standout top scorers flagged for Sao Paulo
The verdict
Mirassol's blend of home form, key player performances, and Sao Paulo's injury woes make a strong case for a comprehensive home win. Fans should anticipate a lively match with Mirassol firmly in control.
Prediction generated 18 Oct 2026, 02:01 UTC · Fipster Model v1.164
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Rafael (OG)
Ferreira
Yellow Card
Iago
Yellow Card
Pedro Lima
Assist: Bobadilla
Eduardo
Yellow Card
Moura
Marcos Antônio
Denilson
Neto Moura
Santos
Machado
Yellow Card
Alesson
Ferreira
Iago
Eduardo
Wallisson
Yellow Card
Bobadilla
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 8 |  Santos | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | +2 | 45 |
| 9 |  Sao Paulo | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | +1 | 43 |
| 10 |  RB Bragantino | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | +1 | 41 |
| 14 |  Vitoria | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | -11 | 38 |
| 15 |  Mirassol | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 37 |
| 16 |  Internacional | 32 | 8 | 11 | 13 | -4 | 35 |
Match Statistics
Mirassol
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 3Willian MachadoD
- 6ReinaldoD
- 22WalterG
- 25Neto MouraM
- 27DenilsonM
- 30Bruno SantosF
- 32Igor FormigaD
- 33EduardoM
- 34João VictorD
- 77AlessonM
- 95EdsonM
Substitutes
- 2Lucas OliveiraD
- 5JapaM
- 7ShaylonM
- 10ChicoM
- 17FernandinhoF
- 19Gustavo SilvaM
- 20Daniel BorgesD
- 44GabrielD
- 80WallissonM
- 90ThomazellaG
- 96Carlos EduardoF
- 99Zé RobertoF
Sao Paulo
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 5R. ArboledaD
- 7Lucas MouraM
- 8Marcos AntônioM
- 10LucianoF
- 12IagoM
- 16D. BobadillaM
- 23RafaelG
- 28NewtonD
- 32Pedro LimaM
- 48D. FerreiraM
- 54Osorio LuisD
Substitutes
- 2R. TolóiD
- 17André SilvaF
- 18WendellD
- 19Lucas RamonD
- 27Victor SáF
- 29Pablo MaiaM
- 31Carlos CoronelG
- 35SabinoD
- 43G. SantanaF
- 45Lucca Marques AlencarF
- 46Pedro FerreiraM
- 49Ryan FranciscoF
Mirassol
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reinaldo | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 4 | — |
| Willian Machado | D | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Walter | G | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Victor | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Edson | M | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 2 | — | 4 | 1/4 |
| Bruno Santos | F | 67 | 6.7 | — | — | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Carlos Eduardo | F | 23 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Neto Moura | M | 67 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Zé Roberto | F | 12 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Fernandinho | F | 16 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Denilson | M | 67 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Igor Formiga | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Shaylon | M | 23 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alesson | M | 74 | 6.1 | — | — | 3 | — | 2 | 1/2 |
| Eduardo | M | 78 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Wallisson | M | 23 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Borges | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Oliveira | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gustavo Silva | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Thomazella | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Chico | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Japa | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Sao Paulo
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Lima | M | 90 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | 2/2 |
| Luciano | F | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 2 | — |
| D. Bobadilla | M | 87 | 7.0 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Pablo Maia | M | 26 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| R. Arboleda | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Iago | M | 77 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 2/2 |
| Marcos Antônio | M | 64 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 3 | — |
| Lucas Moura | M | 64 | 6.6 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Newton | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| G. Santana | F | 26 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Victor Sá | F | 3 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Ferreira | M | 77 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Pedro Ferreira | M | 13 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wendell | D | 13 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Osorio Luis | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rafael | G | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sabino | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Ramon | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Tolói | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| André Silva | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Carlos Coronel | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Francisco | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucca Marques Alencar | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Mirassol vs Sao Paulo?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Mirassol to win against Sao Paulo.
- What score did Fipster predict for Mirassol vs Sao Paulo?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Mirassol 4–0 Sao Paulo.
- What were the win probabilities for Mirassol vs Sao Paulo?
- Fipster's model gave Mirassol a 95% chance of winning, Sao Paulo a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.