Mirassol vs Santos
Match recap
Mirassol and Santos drew 2–2 in their Serie A fixture. Igor Formiga and Negueba scored for Mirassol; Barbosa and Barbosa replied for Santos. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.50 for Mirassol versus 1.73 for Santos. Mirassol sit 15th in the Serie A table while Santos are 8th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
2-3 Santos win
Actual
2–2
Outcome probability
Mirassol and Santos are set for a captivating regular season clash, with both sides boasting attacking talents and a history of goal-laden encounters. Expect a lively match with plenty of chances and goals.
Match factors
Mirassol missing key defensive and midfield players
João Victor (defender) and José Aldo (midfielder) are confirmed out, weakening Mirassol's defensive stability and midfield creativity
Gabriel Barbosa's prolific scoring form
Gabriel Barbosa leads Santos with 13 goals this season, including 5 in last 5 games, making him a major scoring threat
Igor Formiga's dual threat from defense
Igor Formiga contributes 5 assists and 4 goals this season, providing Mirassol with offensive support from defense
Santos' strong recent away scoring streak
Santos has scored in all last 5 away matches, supported by key attackers Gabriel Barbosa and Neymar
Mirassol's Eduardo as key goal threat at home
Eduardo has 6 goals this season with strong home form, crucial for Mirassol's attacking chances
The context
This fixture is part of the regular season's fifth round, where Santos currently sit 8th with 42 points, showing stronger form compared to Mirassol's 15th place with 33 points. Their head-to-head meetings have been competitive, with Santos winning four times, Mirassol twice, and four draws, averaging over three goals per game.
Key insights
Gabriel Barbosa
Santos
Gabriel Barbosa is in red-hot form, netting 13 goals this season with 5 in the last 5 games, making him Santos' main scoring threat.
Serie A 26/2713 goals in 22 appearances, 0.59 goals/game
Eduardo
Mirassol
Eduardo is Mirassol's key goal threat at home, with 6 goals this season and strong recent form.
Serie A 26/276 goals in 21 appearances, 0.29 goals/game
Igor Formiga
Mirassol
Igor Formiga provides both defensive solidity and offensive support with 5 assists and 4 goals this season.
Serie A 26/275 assists in 26 appearances, 0.19 assists/game
- J
João Victor
Mirassol
Mirassol's defensive stability is weakened by the absence of João Victor due to suspension, impacting their backline.
Analysis
Santos have been impressive on the road, scoring in each of their last five away matches, largely thanks to the prolific Gabriel Barbosa, who leads their scoring charts with 13 goals this season, including five in recent games. Mirassol's Eduardo is a key figure at home, contributing six goals, but the absence of key defensive players like João Victor may leave them vulnerable. Igor Formiga's dual role as a defender and assist provider adds an interesting dynamic for Mirassol, but Santos' attacking firepower, including Neymar's influence, is likely to prevail.
Key facts
- 1.In 10 head-to-head meetings, Mirassol have won 2, Santos 4, with 4 draws.
- 2.Head-to-head matches average 3.3 goals, indicating a high-scoring trend.
- 3.Santos rank 8th with 42 points; Mirassol 15th with 33 points this season.
- 4.Gabriel Barbosa leads Santos with 13 goals, including 5 in the last 5 games.
- 5.Eduardo is Mirassol's top scorer with 6 goals, showing strong home form.
- 6.Santos have scored in all of their last 5 away matches.
- 7.Mirassol are missing key defender João Victor due to suspension.
- 8.Four cards are expected in this competitive fixture.
Prediction
The prediction favours an away win for Santos with a 3-2 scoreline. The halftime score is expected to be 1-2, reflecting Santos' ability to strike early and maintain pressure. Four cards are anticipated, suggesting a competitive and physical encounter.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Mirassol
Away — Santos
The verdict
All signs point to a thrilling match with Santos narrowly overcoming Mirassol. Fans should brace for an entertaining game filled with goals and moments of quality from standout players on both sides.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 18:29 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Igor Formiga
Assist: Alesson
João Schmidt
Yellow Card
Lira
Machado
Yellow Card
João Schmidt
Arão
Alesson
Nathan Fogaça
Negueba
Assist: Shaylon
Peres
Gabriel Bontempo
Alesson
Yellow Card
Negueba
Shaylon
Barbosa
Barbosa
Penalty
Barbosa
Yellow Card
Unknown
Match Statistics
Mirassol
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 3Willian MachadoD
- 6ReinaldoD
- 7ShaylonM
- 9Nathan FogaçaF
- 11NeguebaM
- 21José AldoM
- 22WalterG
- 32Igor FormigaD
- 34João VictorD
- 77AlessonM
Substitutes
- 2Lucas OliveiraD
- 8DenilsonM
- 12Victor LuísD
- 17Everton GaldinoF
- 18Gabriel PiresD
- 20Daniel BorgesD
- 23Alex MuralhaG
- 27A. GaleanoF
- 95EdsonF
- 97RodriguesD
- 99André LuísF
Santos
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 3Vinicius LiraD
- 5João SchmidtM
- 9Gabriel BarbosaF
- 11RonyM
- 14Luan PeresD
- 15Willian ArãoM
- 16ThacianoM
- 18Igor ViniciusD
- 49Gabriel BontempoM
- 77Gabriel BrazãoG
- 98A. FríasD
Substitutes
- 1DiógenesG
- 2Zé IvaldoD
- 12MaykeD
- 19L. DíazF
- 21MoisésF
- 22Á. BarrealM
- 25Gabriel MeninoM
- 28C. OlivaM
- 30M. TercerosM
- 31G. EscobarD
- 32B. RollheiserF
- 48Gustavo Henrique PereiraM
Mirassol
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Negueba | M | 79 | 8.7 | 1 | — | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3/4 |
| Igor Formiga | D | 90 | 8.0 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | 5 | 1/2 |
| Alesson | M | 69 | 7.7 | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0/2 |
| Willian Machado | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Shaylon | M | 79 | 7.2 | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2/3 |
| Reinaldo(C) | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 0/2 |
| Neto Moura | M | 89 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| Nathan Fogaça | F | 69 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| João Victor | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| José Aldo | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| Walter | G | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Lucas Oliveira | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Denilson | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rodrigues | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Carlos Eduardo | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Victor Luis | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Borges | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alex Muralha | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| André Luis | F | 21 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Edson Carioca | F | 21 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Everton Galdino | F | 8 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Gabriel Pires | D | 11 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Antonio Galeano | F | 11 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
Santos
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Barbosa(C) | F | 90 | 8.9 | 2 | — | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0/1 |
| Gabriel Brazão | G | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luan Peres | D | 74 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Rony | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 3 | — | 6 | 1/2 |
| Willian Arão | M | 66 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Adonis Frías | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Gabriel Bontempo | M | 74 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Thaciano | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Igor Vinícius | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/2 |
| Vinicius Rodrigues Lira | D | 65 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Schmidt | M | 65 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Lautaro Díaz | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Moisés | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Diogenes | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Miguelito | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gustavo Henrique Pereira | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gonzalo Escobar | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mayke | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Zé Ivaldo | D | 16 | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Christian Oliva | M | 24 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Álvaro Barreal | M | 25 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Benjamín Rollheiser | F | 16 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Menino | M | 25 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Mirassol vs Santos?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Santos to win against Mirassol.
- What score did Fipster predict for Mirassol vs Santos?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Mirassol 2–3 Santos.
- What were the win probabilities for Mirassol vs Santos?
- Fipster's model gave Mirassol a 7% chance of winning, Santos a 85% chance, and a 8% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 85% confidence — a high-confidence call.