Mirassol vs Gremio
Mirassol edge Gremio in tight tussle
Two first-half strikes set Mirassol on course before Gremio's late reply fell short.
Mirassol took control early with goals at 16 and 40 minutes, putting Gremio on the back foot. Despite Carlos Vinícius pulling one back at 78 minutes, Gremio couldn't find an equaliser, handing Mirassol a narrow 2-1 victory. This result defied Fipster's prediction of a 1-1 draw, proving the model's confidence was a touch misplaced.
Analysis
Mirassol host Gremio in what promises to be a tightly contested regular season fixture. Both teams have shown mixed form but are closely matched in the league standings, setting the stage for a competitive encounter.
In this league campaign, Mirassol sit 19th with 16 points from 17 games, while Gremio are just a few places above in 16th with 21 points from 18 matches. Both sides have struggled for consistency, making this clash a crucial opportunity to gain ground.
Mirassol have been reasonably consistent at home, averaging 1.2 goals per game and boasting a positive scoring streak on their own turf. Gremio, meanwhile, rely heavily on their top scorer Carlos Vinícius, who has netted 9 goals this season and remains a constant threat. The visitors have found the net in three of their last five matches, indicating improved offensive form. Both teams have full squads available, so expect a balanced contest with tactical discipline on display.
Prediction
The prediction leans towards a draw, with a 1-1 scoreline the most likely outcome. The halftime score is expected to be goalless, reflecting a cautious start from both sides. The match should see around four cards, suggesting a competitive but fair battle. Confidence in this prediction is moderate at 18%, highlighting the evenly matched nature of the fixture.
Outcome probability
Match factors
Gremio's attacking reliance on Carlos Vinícius
Vinícius is focal point with high goal rate; Mirassol must contain him to limit Gremio chances
Mirassol's home scoring consistency
Mirassol scores more at home (1.2 goals avg) and has positive scoring streak at home
Gremio's recent scoring streak
Gremio has scored in 3 of last 5 matches, showing improved offensive form
No significant injuries reported
Both teams have full squads available, no key absences affecting tactics
Key Takeaways
In summary, Mirassol and Gremio are set to share the spoils in a match where neither side can afford to lose ground. With key players like Carlos Vinícius and Eduardo poised to make an impact, fans can expect a lively contest ending in a well-earned draw.
- Mirassol are 19th in the league with 16 points from 17 games (W4 D4 L9).
- Gremio sit 16th with 21 points from 18 matches (W5 D6 L7).
- Carlos Vinícius is Gremio's top scorer with 9 goals this season.
- Mirassol average 1.2 goals per home game, showing decent scoring form at home.
- Gremio have scored in 3 of their last 5 matches, indicating improved attacking form.
- Both teams have full squads available with no significant injuries reported.
- The most likely final score is 1-1, with a 0-0 halftime scoreline.
- The match is expected to see around 4 cards, reflecting a competitive encounter.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Mirassol
Away — Gremio
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Goal
Assist: Igor Formiga
Denilson
Yellow Card
Edson
Assist: Denilson
Kannemann
Yellow Card
Villasanti
Amuzu
Caio Paulista
Mec
Martins
Yellow Card
Edson
Unknown
Japa
Carlos Vinícius
Assist: Pavón
Pérez
Yellow Card
Nardoni
Alesson
Denilson
Tetê
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 21 | 14 | 5 | 2 | +22 | 47 |
| 13 |  Vitoria | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | -9 | 26 |
| 14 |  Mirassol | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 23 |
| 15 |  Santos | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | -4 | 22 |
| 16 |  Internacional | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | -4 | 22 |
| 17 |  Gremio | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | -4 | 22 |
| 18 |  Vasco DA Gama | 20 | 5 | 6 | 9 | -8 | 21 |
Match Statistics
Mirassol
4-3-3Starting XI
- 5JapaM
- 6ReinaldoD
- 8DenilsonM
- 21José AldoM
- 22WalterG
- 32Igor FormigaD
- 34João VictorD
- 77AlessonF
- 95EdsonF
Substitutes
- 1GeorgemyG
- 2Lucas OliveiraD
- 7ShaylonM
- 9André LuísF
- 10ChicoM
- 12Victor LuísD
- 20Daniel BorgesD
- 27A. GaleanoF
- 90ThomazellaG
- 96Carlos EduardoF
Gremio
4-3-3Starting XI
- 1WevertonG
- 4W. KannemannD
- 5J. NardoniM
- 6Gustavo MartinsD
- 7C. PavónD
- 9F. AmuzuF
- 20M. VillasantiM
- 21TetêF
- 37Gabriel MecM
- 38Caio PaulistaD
- 95Carlos ViníciusF
Substitutes
- 3Wagner LeonardoD
- 10WillianM
- 11M. MonsalveM
- 12Gabriel GrandoG
- 14Marcos RochaD
- 17DodiM
- 19E. NoriegaM
- 22M. BraithwaiteF
- 33L. PérezM
- 43Luis EduardoD
- 54Pedro GabrielD
- 65Riquelme FreitasM
Mirassol
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reinaldo | D | 96 | 8.3 | — | — | 3 | — | 4 | 2/3 |
| Edson Carioca | F | 72 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | 4/4 |
| Japa | M | 76 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 3/3 |
| Igor Formiga | D | 96 | 7.5 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2 | 1/2 |
| Denilson | M | 83 | 7.2 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| João Victor(C) | D | 96 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Alesson | F | 83 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/4 |
| Walter | G | 96 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| José Aldo | M | 96 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Antonio Galeano | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Georgemy | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Thomazella | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Victor Luis | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Borges | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Oliveira | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Shaylon | M | 20 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Carlos Eduardo | F | 24 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/3 |
| Chico | M | 13 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| André Luis | F | 21 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Gremio
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gustavo Martins | D | 96 | 8.0 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 2/2 |
| Carlos Vinícius | F | 96 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Mathias Villasanti | M | 45 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Francis Amuzu | F | 45 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 2/5 |
| Cristian Pavón | D | 96 | 6.6 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 3 | 2/2 |
| Tetê | F | 86 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 2 | — | 2/5 |
| Gabriel Mec | M | 45 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Juan Nardoni | M | 80 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| Weverton | G | 96 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Caio Paulista | D | 45 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Walter Kannemann(C) | D | 96 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Erick Noriega | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luis Guedes | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Grando | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Miguel Monsalve | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wagner Leonardo | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dodi | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Riquelme Freitas | M | 16 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Pedro Gabriel | D | 51 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Leonel Pérez | M | 51 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Marcos Rocha | D | 10 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Willian | M | 51 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| Martin Braithwaite | F | 51 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |