Mirassol vs Cruzeiro
Match recap
Mirassol and Cruzeiro drew 2–2 in their Serie A fixture. Nathan Fogaça and Negueba scored for Mirassol; Wanderson and Kaio Jorge replied for Cruzeiro. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 2.34 for Mirassol versus 1.60 for Cruzeiro. Mirassol sit 15th in the Serie A table while Cruzeiro are 3rd.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
3-2 Mirassol win
Actual
2–2
Outcome probability
Mirassol and Cruzeiro are poised for an entertaining battle, with both sides showing attacking intent early on. The halftime score of 1-1 suggests a competitive match, but Mirassol are expected to pull ahead in the second half.
Match factors
Mirassol's Igor Formiga offers attacking threat from defense
Igor Formiga leads Mirassol with 5 assists and 4 goals, providing offensive support from defense, which could exploit Cruzeiro's defensive gaps.
Kaio Jorge's scoring form boosts Cruzeiro's attack
Kaio Jorge has 8 goals this season with strong recent form, making him a key scoring threat against Mirassol's defense.
Mirassol's Eduardo in good scoring form at home
Eduardo scored 2 goals in last 5 games, both at home, aligning with Mirassol's positive home scoring streak.
Mirassol missing key midfielder José Aldo
José Aldo is confirmed out due to muscle injury, reducing midfield creativity and assist potential for Mirassol.
Matheus Pereira's dual threat as scorer and assister for Cruzeiro
Matheus Pereira contributes 8 goals and 4 assists, making him a central figure in Cruzeiro's attacking plays.
The context
This fixture is part of the regular season's third round in the 2026 campaign. Mirassol currently sit 15th in their league, while Cruzeiro hold a stronger 5th place position. Previous encounters between these teams have been tight, with two draws and one Cruzeiro win in three meetings, averaging three goals per game.
Key insights
Igor Formiga
Mirassol
Leads Mirassol with 5 assists, providing attacking support from defence and exploiting Cruzeiro's defensive gaps.
Serie A 26/275 assists in 26 appearances, 0.19 assists/game
Kaio Jorge
Cruzeiro
Top scorer with 8 goals and strong recent form, a key threat against Mirassol's defence.
Serie A 26/278 goals in 22 appearances, 0.36 goals/game
Eduardo
Mirassol
Leading scorer with 6 goals, including 2 in last 5 games at home, boosting Mirassol's attack.
Serie A 26/276 goals in 21 appearances, 0.29 goals/game
Matheus Pereira
Cruzeiro
Dual threat with 8 goals and 4 assists, central to Cruzeiro's attacking plays.
Serie A 26/278 goals and 4 assists in 25 appearances
Analysis
Mirassol's attacking threat is bolstered by midfielder Eduardo, who has netted six goals this season, including a strong home scoring record. Defender Igor Formiga also provides an unusual offensive edge with five assists, making him a key creative outlet. Cruzeiro rely heavily on striker Kaio Jorge, their top scorer with eight goals, and midfielder Matheus Pereira, who contributes both goals and assists. Despite Cruzeiro's higher league standing, Mirassol's home form and attacking contributions give them the edge in this encounter.
Key facts
- 1.Mirassol are ranked 15th with 33 points from 29 games (W8 D9 L12).
- 2.Cruzeiro sit 5th with 48 points from 29 games (W14 D6 L9).
- 3.In 3 head-to-head meetings, Mirassol have 0 wins, Cruzeiro 1, with 2 draws.
- 4.Head-to-head matches average 3.0 total goals.
- 5.Eduardo is Mirassol's top scorer with 6 goals this season.
- 6.Kaio Jorge leads Cruzeiro with 8 goals.
- 7.Igor Formiga has 5 assists for Mirassol, a high tally for a defender.
- 8.Matheus Pereira has 8 goals and 4 assists for Cruzeiro.
Prediction
We predict Mirassol to secure a 3-2 victory after a 1-1 halftime scoreline. The match is expected to be closely contested, with Mirassol edging ahead in the latter stages thanks to their home advantage and key players stepping up.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Mirassol
Away — Cruzeiro
The verdict
Expect a thrilling match with plenty of goals and attacking flair from both sides. Mirassol's ability to capitalise on their home opportunities should see them narrowly overcome Cruzeiro in what promises to be a memorable encounter.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 17:30 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Alex Muralha
Yellow Card
Matheus Pereira
Yellow Card
Wanderson
Assist: Romero
Neto Moura
Yellow Card
Reinaldo
Yellow Card
José Aldo
Yellow Card
Nathan Fogaça
Goal confirmed
Gerson
Yellow Card
Gerson
Wanderson
Negueba
Igor Formiga
Romero
Unknown
Alesson
Eduardo
Nathan Fogaça
Goal cancelled
Fágner
Penalty confirmed
Kaio Jorge
Penalty
Christian
Card upgrade
Lara
Red Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 31 | 20 | 7 | 4 | +36 | 67 |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro | 32 | 16 | 6 | 10 | +5 | 54 |
| 4 |  Atletico Paranaense | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | +12 | 54 |
| 14 |  Vitoria | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | -11 | 38 |
| 15 |  Mirassol | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 37 |
| 16 |  Internacional | 32 | 8 | 11 | 13 | -4 | 35 |
Match Statistics
Mirassol
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 3Willian MachadoD
- 6ReinaldoD
- 9Nathan FogaçaF
- 11NeguebaM
- 21José AldoM
- 22WalterG
- 32Igor FormigaD
- 33EduardoM
- 34João VictorD
- 77AlessonM
Substitutes
- 2Lucas OliveiraD
- 8DenilsonM
- 10ChicoM
- 14Igor CariúsD
- 17Everton GaldinoF
- 23Alex MuralhaG
- 26L. MugniM
- 27A. GaleanoF
- 70Rodrigo FarofaF
- 97RodriguesD
Cruzeiro
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1CássioG
- 6KaikiD
- 10Matheus PereiraM
- 11GersonM
- 15Fabrício BrunoD
- 19Kaio JorgeF
- 23FágnerD
- 29L. RomeroM
- 43João MarceloD
- 88ChristianM
- 94WandersonM
Substitutes
- 8Matheus HenriqueM
- 12WilliamD
- 16Lucas SilvaM
- 17L. SinisterraF
- 22N. VillarealM
- 25L. VillalbaD
- 36Kauã PratesD
- 44Bruno AlvesD
- 57R. LelisF
- 70KenjiF
- 81Otávio Eleodoro Rezende CostaG
Mirassol
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Igor Formiga | D | 55 | 7.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/2 |
| Negueba | M | 101 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0/1 |
| Nathan Fogaça | F | 71 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0/1 |
| Neto Moura | M | 65 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| José Aldo | M | 101 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3/4 |
| João Victor | D | 101 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Willian Machado | D | 101 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | 2 | — | — |
| Eduardo | M | 71 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | — |
| Walter | G | 101 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Reinaldo(C) | D | 101 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alesson | M | 65 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Lucas Oliveira | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rodrigo | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Denilson | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rodrigues | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alex Muralha | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Chico | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Mugni | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Carlos Eduardo | F | 36 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Everton Galdino | F | 30 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Antonio Galeano | F | 30 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Yuri Lara | M | 30 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Igor Cariús | D | 46 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Cruzeiro
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wanderson | M | 45 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/3 |
| Cássio | G | 101 | 7.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matheus Pereira | M | 101 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 1/3 |
| Kaio Jorge | F | 101 | 6.9 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Lucas Romero(C) | M | 64 | 6.9 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Gerson | M | 45 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Marcelo | D | 101 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Christian | M | 89 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Kaiki | D | 101 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 3/6 |
| Fagner | D | 79 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Fabrício Bruno | D | 101 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Bruno Alves | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kauã Prates | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rayan Lelis | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Villalba | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Otávio Costa | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Japa | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Néiser Villarreal | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Silva | M | 37 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kaique Kenji | F | 8 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| William | D | 22 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matheus Henrique | M | 56 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luis Sinisterra | F | 56 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/2 |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Mirassol vs Cruzeiro?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Mirassol to win against Cruzeiro.
- What score did Fipster predict for Mirassol vs Cruzeiro?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Mirassol 3–2 Cruzeiro.
- What were the win probabilities for Mirassol vs Cruzeiro?
- Fipster's model gave Mirassol a 73% chance of winning, Cruzeiro a 13% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 73% confidence — a high-confidence call.