Mirassol vs Coritiba
Match recap
Coritiba beat Mirassol 1–0 in their Serie A fixture. Lavega scored for Coritiba. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.56 for Mirassol versus 1.07 for Coritiba. Mirassol sit 14th in the Serie A table while Coritiba are 12th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
3-1 Mirassol win
Actual
0–1
Outcome probability
Mirassol and Coritiba face off in this Regular Season - 7 fixture, with Mirassol expected to leverage their attacking strengths to secure a solid victory.
Match factors
Mirassol's attacking midfield strength
Mirassol's Eduardo and Alesson provide strong attacking midfield presence, creating multiple chances and scoring threats.
Igor Formiga's dual threat
Formiga contributes both defensively and offensively with 4 goals and 5 assists, a key player for Mirassol's attack and defense.
Pedro Rocha's scoring consistency
Coritiba's Pedro Rocha has 8 goals this season and recent scoring form, making him a key threat despite away challenges.
Mirassol missing key attackers
Mirassol will miss Negueba and José Aldo, reducing midfield creativity and attacking options, impacting their depth.
Mirassol's positive scoring streak at home
Mirassol has scored in their last 5 home games, showing strong offensive momentum at home advantage.
The context
Mirassol currently sit 15th in the league with 33 points, while Coritiba hold 9th place with 38 points. Historically, Mirassol have the edge in their head-to-head meetings, having won two of the three encounters with Coritiba. This season, Mirassol have shown a positive scoring streak at home, netting in their last five home games.
Key insights
Eduardo
Mirassol
Top scorer for Mirassol with 6 goals, including 2 in last 2 home games, providing strong attacking impetus.
Serie A 26/276 goals in 21 appearances, 0.29 goals/game
Igor Formiga
Mirassol
A dual threat with 4 goals and 5 assists, key for both attack and defence, especially effective on set pieces.
Serie A 26/274 goals and 5 assists in 26 appearances
Pedro Rocha
Coritiba
Leading scorer with 8 goals and recent form including 2 goals in last 5 matches, a consistent offensive threat.
Serie A 26/278 goals in 28 appearances, 0.29 goals/game
Analysis
Mirassol's attacking midfield duo, Eduardo and Alesson, provide a potent threat, combining goal-scoring and chance creation. Eduardo leads Mirassol with six goals this season, including two in recent home matches, while Igor Formiga offers a dual threat with four goals and five assists, making him crucial on both ends of the pitch. Coritiba's Pedro Rocha remains their key offensive player with eight goals and recent scoring form, but Mirassol's home momentum and tactical advantages suggest they will dominate. The absence of key Mirassol attackers Negueba and José Aldo may reduce depth but is unlikely to derail their strong home performance.
Key facts
- 1.Mirassol lead head-to-head with 2 wins in 3 matches against Coritiba.
- 2.Mirassol average 5 goals in head-to-head matches compared to Coritiba's 2.
- 3.Mirassol rank 15th in the league with 33 points from 29 games.
- 4.Coritiba rank 9th with 38 points from 29 games.
- 5.Mirassol have scored in their last 5 home games, showing strong offensive momentum.
- 6.Eduardo is Mirassol's top scorer with 6 goals this season.
- 7.Pedro Rocha leads Coritiba with 8 goals this season.
- 8.Igor Formiga contributes both goals and assists, with 4 goals and 5 assists this season.
Prediction
We predict Mirassol to take an early 2-0 lead by halftime and extend their advantage to a 3-1 victory by fulltime. The data strongly supports a home win with Mirassol controlling the match and outscoring Coritiba comfortably.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Mirassol
Away — Coritiba
The verdict
Mirassol's blend of attacking prowess and home form should see them through to a confident 3-1 win over Coritiba. Coritiba will need to tighten up defensively and find more attacking rhythm to challenge this prediction.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 19:06 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Victor Luís
Yellow Card
Lucas Ronier
Gómez
Victor Luís
Felipe Jonatan
Lavega
Unknown
Willian Oliveira
Tiquinho Soares
Alesson
Lavega
Yellow Card
Lavega
Pires
José Aldo
Yellow Card
Josué
Yellow Card
Match Statistics
Mirassol
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 3Willian MachadoD
- 11NeguebaM
- 12Victor LuísD
- 18Gabriel PiresM
- 21José AldoM
- 22WalterG
- 29Tiquinho SoaresF
- 32Igor FormigaD
- 34João VictorD
- 77AlessonM
Substitutes
- 2Lucas OliveiraD
- 7ShaylonM
- 8DenilsonM
- 9Nathan FogaçaF
- 17Everton GaldinoF
- 20Daniel BorgesD
- 23Alex MuralhaG
- 27A. GaleanoF
- 95EdsonF
- 99André LuísF
Coritiba
5-4-1Starting XI
- 6Felipe JonatanD
- 7J. LavegaM
- 11Lucas RonierM
- 12Pedro RangelG
- 19S. GómezM
- 23Tiago CóserD
- 26Bruno MeloD
- 29Willian OliveiraM
- 32Pedro RochaF
- 44João Pedro ChermontD
- 55JacyD
Substitutes
- 2TingaD
- 3MaiconD
- 8WallissonM
- 10JosuéM
- 13KeillerG
- 14Enzo VágnerF
- 20KenoF
- 21Thiago SantosM
- 28FabinhoF
- 36Vini PaulistaF
- 77Breno LopesF
- 88Fernando SobralM
Mirassol
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willian Machado | D | 90 | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| José Aldo | M | 90 | 7.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 4 | 1/1 |
| Negueba | M | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 8 | 2/6 |
| Tiquinho Soares | F | 67 | 7.3 | — | — | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1/1 |
| Neto Moura(C) | M | 67 | 7.2 | — | — | 4 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Walter | G | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Victor Luis | D | 45 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Alesson | M | 67 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Gabriel Pires | M | 79 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Igor Formiga | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Victor | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Alex Muralha | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Edson Carioca | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Everton Galdino | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Oliveira | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Carlos Eduardo | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yuri Lara | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Denilson | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Shaylon | M | 11 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Antonio Galeano | F | 23 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| André Luis | F | 23 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Daniel Borges | D | 45 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/2 |
| Nathan Fogaça | F | 23 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
Coritiba
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Rangel | G | 90 | 9.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jacy Maranhão | D | 90 | 7.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Joaquín Lavega | M | 79 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | — | 1/1 |
| Willian Oliveira | M | 67 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Felipe Jonatan | D | 58 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Pedro Rocha | F | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | 2/3 |
| Bruno Melo | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tiago Cóser | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| João Pedro Chermont | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Lucas Ronier | M | 45 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Sebastian Gomez(C) | M | 45 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Fabinho | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Enzo | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tinga | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Keno | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Thiago Santos | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Keiller | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fernando Sobral | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wallisson Luiz | M | 23 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Maicon | D | 32 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Josué | M | 11 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Vini Paulista | F | 45 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 3 | — |
| Breno Lopes | F | 45 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Mirassol vs Coritiba?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Mirassol to win against Coritiba.
- What score did Fipster predict for Mirassol vs Coritiba?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Mirassol 3–1 Coritiba.
- What were the win probabilities for Mirassol vs Coritiba?
- Fipster's model gave Mirassol a 85% chance of winning, Coritiba a 7% chance, and a 8% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 85% confidence — a high-confidence call.