Mirassol vs Bahia
Match recap
Bahia beat Mirassol 2–1 in their Serie A fixture. Duarte scored for Mirassol; Juba and Sanabria replied for Bahia. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.16 for Mirassol versus 1.93 for Bahia. Mirassol sit 15th in the Serie A table while Bahia are 7th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
3-1 Mirassol win
Actual
1–2
Outcome probability
This fixture between Mirassol and Bahia promises an intriguing battle as both sides look to assert themselves in the league. With Mirassol aiming to climb the table and Bahia pushing to maintain their strong position, expect a lively encounter.
Match factors
Mirassol's Igor Formiga offers attacking threat from defense
Igor Formiga's 5 assists this season and recent 3 assists in last 5 games provide Mirassol with offensive width and set-piece threat.
Eduardo leads Mirassol's scoring with strong home form
Eduardo has 6 goals this season with 2 in last 5 games, showing strong scoring form especially at home where Mirassol is predicted to score 3 goals.
Luciano Juba's scoring form boosts Bahia's attack
Luciano Juba has scored 10 goals this season including 3 in last 5 matches, providing a key goal threat from defense for Bahia.
Reinaldo's set-piece delivery key for Mirassol
Reinaldo's 4 assists and role as set-piece taker add creative threat and defensive stability for Mirassol.
Bahia's Éverton Ribeiro creative influence
Éverton Ribeiro leads Bahia with 4 assists this season, crucial for creating chances though recent assist form is limited.
The context
Mirassol currently sit 15th in the league with 33 points from 30 games, while Bahia hold a more comfortable 5th place with 49 points. Despite Bahia's superior goal difference and points per game, Mirassol's home form and attacking potential make this a contest worth watching.
Key insights
Igor Formiga
Mirassol
Igor Formiga's 5 assists this season, including 3 in the last 5 games, provide Mirassol with offensive width and set-piece threat.
Serie A 26/275 assists in 27 appearances, 0.19 assists/game
Eduardo
Mirassol
Eduardo leads Mirassol's scoring with 6 goals this season and strong home form, scoring 2 in the last 5 games.
Serie A 26/276 goals in 22 appearances, 0.27 goals/game
Luciano Juba
Bahia
Luciano Juba's 10 goals this season, including 3 in the last 5 matches, make him a key attacking threat from defence.
Serie A 26/2710 goals in 26 appearances, 0.38 goals/game
Reinaldo
Mirassol
Reinaldo's 4 assists and role as set-piece taker add creative threat and defensive stability for Mirassol.
Serie A 26/274 assists in 27 appearances, 0.15 assists/game
Éverton Ribeiro
Bahia
Éverton Ribeiro leads Bahia with 4 assists this season, crucial for creating chances despite limited recent assist form.
Serie A 26/274 assists in 20 appearances, 0.20 assists/game
Analysis
The first half is expected to be competitive, likely ending 1-1, reflecting the balanced nature of previous encounters. Mirassol's Eduardo leads their scoring charts with 6 goals this season, showing particular prowess at home. Meanwhile, Bahia's Luciano Juba, a defender with an impressive 10 goals, provides a significant attacking threat. Mirassol's Igor Formiga also offers creative spark from defence with 5 assists, adding to their offensive options. Bahia's Éverton Ribeiro remains a key playmaker, though his recent assist form has dipped.
Key facts
- 1.Mirassol are 15th in the league with 33 points from 30 games (W8 D9 L13).
- 2.Bahia are 5th in the league with 49 points from 30 games (W13 D10 L7).
- 3.Bahia have a significantly better goal difference (+18) than Mirassol.
- 4.Mirassol and Bahia have met 3 times: 1 win each and 1 draw.
- 5.Head-to-head matches average 3.7 goals, with Mirassol scoring 7 and Bahia 4 in total.
- 6.Eduardo is Mirassol's top scorer with 6 goals this season.
- 7.Luciano Juba is Bahia's top scorer with 10 goals, an impressive tally for a defender.
- 8.Igor Formiga leads Mirassol with 5 assists, including 3 in the last 5 games.
Prediction
We anticipate Mirassol to pull ahead in the second half, capitalising on their home advantage and attacking strengths to secure a 3-1 victory. The halftime scoreline of 1-1 sets the stage for a decisive second period where Mirassol's offensive players, supported by set-piece specialist Reinaldo, will make the difference.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Mirassol
Away — Bahia
The verdict
In summary, while Bahia have the edge in league standing and goal difference, Mirassol's home form and key players' contributions suggest they will emerge victorious. Expect an entertaining match with Mirassol clinching a 3-1 win after a balanced first half.
Prediction generated 14 Oct 2026, 00:07 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Eduardo
Red Card
Duarte (OG)
Reinaldo
Edson
Yellow Card
André Luís
Caio Alexandre
José Aldo
Yellow Card
Eduardo
Everaldo
Pulga
Edson
Victor Luís
Yellow Card
Juba
Penalty
Unknown
José Aldo
Jean Lucas
Yellow Card
Éverton Ribeiro
Sanabria
Negueba
Yellow Card
Oliveira
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 6 |  Atletico-MG | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | +7 | 50 |
| 7 |  Bahia | 31 | 13 | 10 | 8 | +5 | 49 |
| 8 |  Santos | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | +2 | 45 |
| 14 |  Vitoria | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | -11 | 38 |
| 15 |  Mirassol | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 37 |
| 16 |  Internacional | 32 | 8 | 11 | 13 | -4 | 35 |
Match Statistics
Mirassol
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 2Lucas OliveiraD
- 6ReinaldoD
- 11NeguebaM
- 21José AldoM
- 22WalterG
- 32Igor FormigaD
- 33EduardoM
- 34João VictorD
- 95EdsonM
- 99André LuísF
Substitutes
- 3Willian MachadoD
- 7ShaylonM
- 8DenilsonM
- 9Nathan FogaçaF
- 10ChicoM
- 12Victor LuísD
- 17Everton GaldinoF
- 18Gabriel PiresM
- 20Daniel BorgesD
- 23Alex MuralhaG
- 29Tiquinho SoaresF
- 77AlessonF
Bahia
4-3-3Starting XI
- 5N. AcevedoD
- 6Jean LucasM
- 8Caio AlexandreM
- 10Éverton RibeiroM
- 16Erick PulgaF
- 21S. RamosD
- 22Léo VieiraG
- 27EveraldoF
- 33David DuarteD
- 46Luciano JubaD
- 99C. OliveraF
Substitutes
- 2GilbertoD
- 3Gabriel XavierD
- 7AdemirF
- 11Rodrigo NestorM
- 12Willian JoséF
- 14ErickM
- 15M. AraújoM
- 23M. SanabriaF
- 25IagoD
- 31Roman GomezD
- 34João PauloG
- 44Marcos VictorD
Mirassol
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walter | G | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Lucas Oliveira | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Neto Moura | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Eduardo | M | 60 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Negueba | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| Reinaldo | D | 41 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Igor Formiga | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| André Luis | F | 45 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Edson Carioca | M | 60 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 4/7 |
| João Victor(C) | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| José Aldo | M | 76 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Tiquinho Soares | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alex Muralha | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Borges | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Everton Galdino | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Chico | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Willian Machado | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Denilson | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nathan Fogaça | F | 45 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | 2 | — | — |
| Gabriel Pires | M | 14 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Alesson | F | 30 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2/2 |
| Shaylon | M | 30 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Victor Luis | D | 49 | 5.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
Bahia
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Léo Vieira | G | 90 | 8.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Everton Ribeiro(C) | M | 80 | 7.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1/1 |
| Santiago Ramos Mingo | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| David Duarte | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nicolás Acevedo | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Luciano Juba | D | 90 | 7.0 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1/2 |
| Caio Alexandre | M | 45 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Erick Pulga | F | 60 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | — |
| Cristian Olivera | F | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2/4 |
| Jean Lucas | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| Everaldo | F | 60 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/3 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Iago Borduchi | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Paulo | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Erick | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Michel Araújo | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marcos Victor | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Xavier | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Román Gómez | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mateo Sanabria | F | 21 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Ademir | F | 9 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gilberto | D | 45 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Rodrigo Nestor | M | 10 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Willian José | F | 30 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Mirassol vs Bahia?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Mirassol to win against Bahia.
- What score did Fipster predict for Mirassol vs Bahia?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Mirassol 3–1 Bahia.
- What were the win probabilities for Mirassol vs Bahia?
- Fipster's model gave Mirassol a 84% chance of winning, Bahia a 8% chance, and a 8% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 84% confidence — a high-confidence call.