Minnesota United FC vs St. Louis City
Minnesota United rallies to edge St. Louis City
A spirited comeback sees Minnesota overturn an early two-goal deficit.
St. Louis City stormed ahead with early strikes from Rafael Navarro and Jeong Sang-Bin, but Minnesota United FC fought back after the break with goals from A. Jackson, K. Yeboah, and Marcus Caldeira sealing a 3-2 victory. This result defied Fipster's high-confidence prediction of an away win for St. Louis City, showcasing Minnesota's resilience and determination to snatch the win on home turf.
Outcome probability
As the regular season nears its climax, Minnesota United FC face a stern test against St. Louis City. The visitors have been in fine form, while Minnesota will be without their key playmaker, making this a challenging encounter.
Match factors
Minnesota United FC missing key playmaker J. Pereyra
Joaquín Pereyra is confirmed out with a muscle injury, removing their top assister with 9 assists this season, weakening creativity.
Rafael Navarro's prolific scoring form
Navarro has 7 goals in 6 games, averaging 1.17 goals per game, a major scoring threat for St. Louis City.
Kelvin Yeboah's consistent goal scoring
Yeboah scored 4 goals in last 5 games, showing strong form and reliability for Minnesota United FC.
St. Louis City's attacking depth and creativity
Multiple players like Mățan, Wallem, and Becher provide creative assists, supporting their strong scoring potential.
Minnesota United FC's attacking reliance on Yeboah and Markanich
Yeboah and Markanich combine for 21 goals this season, forming the core of their scoring threat despite Pereyra's absence.
The context
Minnesota United FC sit 14th in the league with 30 points from 28 games, struggling to find consistency. In contrast, St. Louis City hold 2nd place with 51 points from 29 matches, showcasing a clear performance gap. Their goal difference advantage (+16 compared to Minnesota's -9) highlights their stronger offence and defence this season.
Key insights
- J
Joaquín Pereyra
Minnesota United FC
Pereyra is out with a muscle injury, removing their top assister with 9 assists this season and weakening their creativity.
Major League Soccer 26/279 assists in 2026 season
Rafael Navarro
St. Louis City
Navarro’s prolific scoring form with 7 goals in 6 games makes him a major threat for Minnesota’s defence.
Major League Soccer 26/277 goals in 6 appearances, 1.17 avg per game
Kelvin Kwarteng Yeboah
Minnesota United FC
Yeboah’s consistent goal scoring with 4 goals in the last 5 games shows he remains a key attacking outlet despite team struggles.
Major League Soccer 26/2713 goals in 25 appearances, 4 in last 5 games
Alexandru Mățan
St. Louis City
Mățan’s creativity and 4 assists in 8 games provide St. Louis City with strong attacking support and set-piece threat.
Major League Soccer 26/274 assists in 8 appearances, 0.5 avg per game
Analysis
Despite Minnesota's historical head-to-head advantage with six wins out of eight meetings, St. Louis City have won the other two encounters, which were high-scoring affairs averaging 3.8 goals per game. St. Louis City's attacking depth, led by Rafael Navarro's exceptional scoring rate of 7 goals in 6 games, and creative midfielders like Alexandru Mățan, gives them a clear edge. Minnesota's attacking threat largely depends on Kelvin Kwarteng Yeboah and Anthony Markanich, but the absence of Joaquín Pereyra, their top assister, weakens their creativity.
Key facts
- 1.Minnesota United FC rank 14th with 30 points from 28 games (W7 D9 L12).
- 2.St. Louis City rank 2nd with 51 points from 29 games (W14 D9 L6).
- 3.St. Louis City have a +16 goal difference; Minnesota United FC have -9.
- 4.In 8 head-to-head meetings, Minnesota United FC have won 6, St. Louis City 2, with no draws.
- 5.Head-to-head matches average 3.8 goals per game.
- 6.Rafael Navarro has scored 7 goals in 6 games this season.
- 7.Kelvin Kwarteng Yeboah has 13 goals this season with 4 in the last 5 games.
- 8.Joaquín Pereyra is out with a muscle injury, removing Minnesota's top assister.
Prediction
The prediction favours an away win for St. Louis City with a halftime score of 0-2 and a fulltime result of 1-3. The match is expected to feature four cards, reflecting a competitive but controlled encounter. St. Louis City's superior form and goal-scoring ability should see them comfortably outscore Minnesota United FC.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Minnesota United FC
Away — St. Louis City
The verdict
St. Louis City look poised to extend their strong league campaign with a confident victory. Minnesota United FC will need to regroup quickly after this setback if they hope to climb the table before the season ends.
Prediction generated 15 Oct 2026, 03:38 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Navarro
Jeong Sang-Bin
Assist: Navarro
Jackson
Yellow Card
Perez
Yellow Card
Totland
Polvara
Jackson
Assist: Yeboah
Jeong Sang-Bin
Yellow Card
Yeboah
Assist: Gonzalez
Jeong Sang-Bin
Becher
Gonzalez
Jackson
Joyner
Caldeira
Assist: Pereyra
Valerius
Yeboah
Díaz
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | +32 | 55 |
| 2 |  St. Louis City | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +15 | 51 |
| 3 |  FC Dallas | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +8 | 51 |
| 12 |  San Diego | 30 | 8 | 10 | 12 | -3 | 34 |
| 13 |  Minnesota United FC | 30 | 8 | 10 | 12 | -8 | 34 |
| 14 |  Austin | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -18 | 31 |
Match Statistics
Minnesota United FC
3-4-1-2Starting XI
- 9K. YeboahF
- 12D. CallenderG
- 13A. MarkanichM
- 16A. JacksonF
- 18M. GonzalezM
- 20W. TrappM
- 21B. HlongwaneM
- 23M. DugganD
- 25N. TriantisM
- 28J. DíazD
- 52Cherrion ValeriusD
Substitutes
- 3K. DuncanD
- 5N. RomeroD
- 8T. ChancalayF
- 11M. MaloneF
- 15M. BoxallD
- 22Marcus CaldeiraF
- 26J. PereyraM
- 30O. GeneM
- 94Kayne RizvanovichG
St. Louis City
3-4-1-2Starting XI
- 1R. BürkiG
- 9Rafael NavarroF
- 11S. BecherF
- 14T. TotlandM
- 21D. PolvaraM
- 27F. FallD
- 28M. PerezM
- 32T. BaumgartlD
- 59M. JoynerM
- 77Jeong Sang-BinM
- 99J. OrozcoD
Substitutes
- 5L. MacNaughtonD
- 7T. OstrákM
- 18C. BrunetM
- 19C. HolseF
- 20Rafael SantosD
- 23A. MățanM
- 24D. EdelmanM
- 39B. LundtG
- 42D. DownsF
Minnesota United FC
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Yeboah | F | 92 | 8.8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0/3 |
| A. Jackson | F | 79 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | 6 | 2/5 |
| Marcus Caldeira | F | 20 | 8.0 | 1 | — | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1/1 |
| M. Gonzalez | M | 70 | 7.3 | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| W. Trapp | M | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 3 | 1/1 |
| N. Triantis | M | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0/2 |
| J. Díaz | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Cherrion Valerius | D | 92 | 6.6 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| D. Callender | G | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Hlongwane | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 0/3 |
| A. Markanich | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| J. Pereyra | M | 11 | 6.2 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| M. Duggan | D | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O. Gene | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kayne Rizvanovich | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Boxall | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Duncan | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Malone | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Chancalay | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| N. Romero | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
St. Louis City
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Navarro | F | 90 | 8.7 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1/3 |
| Jeong Sang-Bin | M | 69 | 7.1 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0/1 |
| R. Bürki | G | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Baumgartl | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Fall | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| M. Joyner | M | 82 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/2 |
| J. Orozco | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Downs | F | 21 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| S. Becher | F | 69 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Rafael Santos | D | 44 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| L. MacNaughton | D | 21 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Edelman | M | 44 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| D. Polvara | M | 46 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| T. Ostrák | M | 8 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| M. Perez | M | 90 | 5.8 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| T. Totland | M | 46 | 5.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| A. Mățan | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Holse | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Brunet | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Lundt | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Minnesota United FC vs St. Louis City?
- Fipster's AI model predicted St. Louis City to win against Minnesota United FC.
- What score did Fipster predict for Minnesota United FC vs St. Louis City?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Minnesota United FC 1–3 St. Louis City.
- What were the win probabilities for Minnesota United FC vs St. Louis City?
- Fipster's model gave Minnesota United FC a 2% chance of winning, St. Louis City a 95% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.