Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo
Minnesota United snatch draw from Dynamo
A late strike from D. McGuire denied Minnesota a home win in a spirited MLS clash.
Houston Dynamo opened the scoring through L. Foster before Minnesota United responded after the break with goals from K. Yeboah and Marcus Caldeira. However, D. McGuire's stoppage-time equaliser ensured the points were shared in a 2-2 draw. This result defied Fipster's low-confidence prediction of an away win for Houston.
Outcome probability
As the MLS regular season approaches its final stages, Minnesota United FC face off against Houston Dynamo in what promises to be a tight encounter. Both teams have shown contrasting fortunes this season, setting the stage for an intriguing battle.
Match factors
Yeboah's scoring consistency
Kelvin Yeboah leads Minnesota with 12 goals and strong recent form, boosting scoring chances.
Guilherme's offensive impact
Guilherme tops Houston with 13 goals and 6 assists, key to their predicted win.
Pereyra's creative influence
Joaquín Pereyra's 9 assists and playmaking ability provide Minnesota with attacking creativity.
Markanich's recent scoring form
Anthony Markanich has 2 goals in last 5 games, showing upward scoring trend for Minnesota.
Houston missing key players
Houston has 3 confirmed outs including goalkeeper and midfielder, potentially weakening defense.
The context
Houston Dynamo currently sit 2nd in the league with 44 points from 26 games, boasting a positive goal difference of +4. Minnesota United FC find themselves 14th with 29 points and a goal difference of -7. This points and goal difference gap highlights Houston's stronger campaign so far.
Key insights
Kelvin Kwarteng Yeboah
Minnesota United FC
Yeboah leads Minnesota with 12 goals and has been in strong recent form, scoring 3 goals in his last 5 games, making him a constant threat.
Major League Soccer 26/2712 goals in 23 apps, 0.52 goals/game
Guilherme
Houston Dynamo
Guilherme tops Houston's scoring charts with 13 goals and adds 6 assists, playing a pivotal role in their attack and recent form.
Major League Soccer 26/2713 goals in 24 apps, 0.54 goals/game
Joaquín Pereyra
Minnesota United FC
Pereyra's 9 assists highlight his creative influence, providing key chances and linking play effectively for Minnesota.
Major League Soccer 26/279 assists in 24 apps, 0.38 assists/game
Anthony Markanich
Minnesota United FC
Markanich has shown good recent away scoring form with 2 goals in his last 5 away games, adding an attacking edge from midfield.
Major League Soccer 26/277 goals in 24 apps, 0.29 goals/game
Analysis
Houston Dynamo's offensive threat is led by Guilherme, who has netted 13 goals and provided 6 assists this season, making him a key figure in their attack. Minnesota's Kelvin Kwarteng Yeboah counters with 12 goals and solid recent form, but Houston's overall consistency and better points per game (1.69 vs 1.12) give them the edge. Minnesota's Joaquín Pereyra offers creativity with 9 assists, but Houston's defensive solidity and attacking depth could prove decisive.
Key facts
- 1.Houston Dynamo are 2nd in the league with 44 points from 26 games (W13 D5 L8).
- 2.Minnesota United FC are 14th with 29 points from 26 games (W7 D8 L11).
- 3.Houston Dynamo have a goal difference of +4; Minnesota United FC have -7.
- 4.Houston Dynamo average 1.69 points per game compared to Minnesota's 1.12.
- 5.Guilherme leads Houston with 13 goals and 6 assists this season.
- 6.Kelvin Kwarteng Yeboah is Minnesota's top scorer with 12 goals.
- 7.Joaquín Pereyra has provided 9 assists for Minnesota United FC.
Prediction
Despite the close probabilities among all outcomes, the prediction leans towards an away win for Houston Dynamo with a 2-1 scoreline. The match is expected to be competitive, but Houston's superior form and goal difference suggest they will come out on top.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Minnesota United FC
Away — Houston Dynamo
The verdict
This MLS regular season fixture promises a competitive match with Houston Dynamo narrowly prevailing. Minnesota United FC will look to their key players to challenge the visitors, but Houston's consistent performances this season make them the favourites to secure all three points.
Prediction generated 27 Sep 2026, 02:39 UTC · Fipster Model v1.162
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Foster
Yeboah
Assist: Duggan
Hlongwane
Andrade
Gene
Foster
Jackson
Gonzalez
Yellow Card
Bond
Caldeira
Assist: Valerius
Trapp
Yellow Card
Samassékou
Ennali
Valerius
Chancalay
Bouzat
McGuire
Assist: Markanich
Yeboah
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | +32 | 55 |
| 4 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | +10 | 48 |
| 5 |  Houston Dynamo | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | +2 | 47 |
| 6 |  Los Angeles FC | 31 | 12 | 10 | 9 | +15 | 46 |
| 12 |  San Diego | 30 | 8 | 10 | 12 | -3 | 34 |
| 13 |  Minnesota United FC | 30 | 8 | 10 | 12 | -8 | 34 |
| 14 |  Austin | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -18 | 31 |
Match Statistics
Minnesota United FC
3-4-3Starting XI
- 8T. ChancalayF
- 9K. YeboahF
- 12D. CallenderG
- 13A. MarkanichM
- 15M. BoxallD
- 16A. JacksonF
- 20W. TrappM
- 21B. HlongwaneM
- 23M. DugganD
- 30O. GeneM
- 52Cherrion ValeriusD
Substitutes
- 3K. DuncanD
- 5N. RomeroD
- 11M. MaloneF
- 18M. GonzalezF
- 22Marcus CaldeiraF
- 25N. TriantisD
- 27D. TaylorD
- 67C. HarveyM
- 94Kayne RizvanovichG
Houston Dynamo
4-3-3Starting XI
- 3Antônio CarlosD
- 5Lucas HalterD
- 6ArturM
- 9L. FosterF
- 11L. EnnaliD
- 18D. SamassékouM
- 19M. BoguszF
- 20GuilhermeF
- 30A. BouzatM
- 31J. BondG
- 36Felipe AndradeD
Substitutes
- 14D. HolmesM
- 17N. MarkanichF
- 21F. NegriD
- 22M. AranaM
- 23D. McGuireF
- 24A. IbrahimF
- 26B. GillinghamG
- 37G. RiveraM
Minnesota United FC
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Caldeira | F | 27 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | 2 | — |
| K. Yeboah | F | 96 | 8.1 | 1 | — | 4 | 2 | — | — |
| M. Duggan | D | 90 | 7.1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| W. Trapp | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1/1 |
| Cherrion Valerius | D | 88 | 6.8 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 3/4 |
| D. Callender | G | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Markanich | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 3 | — |
| M. Boxall | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| A. Jackson | F | 63 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| N. Triantis | D | 27 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| M. Gonzalez | F | 27 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| K. Duncan | D | 2 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| B. Hlongwane | M | 63 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| O. Gene | M | 63 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Harvey | M | 2 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Chancalay | F | 88 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2/3 |
| Kayne Rizvanovich | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Taylor | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Romero | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Malone | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Houston Dynamo
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. McGuire | F | 1 | 8.1 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| L. Foster | F | 63 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| Guilherme | F | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2/2 |
| N. Markanich | F | 27 | 6.9 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| Artur | M | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Antônio Carlos | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Halter | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| L. Ennali | D | 84 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/3 |
| J. Bond | G | 75 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Bouzat | M | 89 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Negri | D | 27 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| D. Samassékou | M | 84 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| M. Bogusz | F | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Felipe Andrade | D | 63 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| D. Holmes | M | 6 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| M. Arana | M | 6 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Gillingham | G | 15 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Rivera | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Ibrahim | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Houston Dynamo to win against Minnesota United FC.
- What score did Fipster predict for Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Minnesota United FC 1–2 Houston Dynamo.
- What were the win probabilities for Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo?
- Fipster's model gave Minnesota United FC a 32% chance of winning, Houston Dynamo a 35% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.