Millwall vs Derby
Millwall steamroll Derby with early blitz
K. Lisbie's quickfire brace sets the tone for a commanding home victory.
Millwall put Derby to the sword with a dominant 4-1 win in the Championship, sparked by K. Lisbie's early double within the first ten minutes. L. Cundle added to the home side's tally before the break, and J. Cooper sealed the emphatic victory late on. Derby's F. Bilbija managed a consolation goal, but it was too little too late. Fipster's high-confidence prediction of a Millwall win was spot on, though the actual scoreline was even more emphatic than forecast.
Outcome probability
Millwall and Derby face off in what promises to be an intriguing regular season fixture. With Millwall sitting comfortably mid-table and Derby struggling near the bottom, the Lions look poised to assert their dominance.
Match factors
Millwall missing key attackers reduces scoring options
Several Millwall attackers confirmed out, limiting goal-scoring threats
Derby’s defensive injury absences weaken backline
Derby missing multiple defenders including S. Langås, impacting defensive solidity
Millwall’s defenders contribute significantly to attack
Defenders J. Cooper and C. Taylor show above average goal and assist involvement
Millwall’s home scoring form supports predicted win
Millwall averages 1.83 goals per home game, above league average
Derby struggles with low win percentage and defensive issues
Derby has only 8.3% win rate and concedes 1.75 goals per game, indicating poor form
The context
Millwall currently occupy 12th place with 15 points from 11 games, while Derby languish in 23rd with just 6 points. Historically, Millwall have the upper hand, winning 9 of their 20 meetings against Derby's 5 victories. This season, Millwall's goal difference is notably better, reflecting their stronger form.
Key insights
- J
J. Cooper
Millwall
Exceptional passing and recent goal contributions make Cooper a key attacking threat from defence.
Championship 26/27High passing volume and accuracy, plus goals recently.
- C
C. Taylor
Millwall
Taylor's consistent defensive performances and attacking returns add value at both ends of the pitch.
Championship 26/27Above average passing accuracy and recent goals and assists.
- B
B. Clark
Derby
Clark remains Derby's creative hub, contributing goals and maintaining high involvement despite team struggles.
Championship 26/27Good ratings with goal contributions and high passing involvement.
Analysis
Millwall's home scoring form is impressive, averaging 1.83 goals per game, which bodes well for their attacking output. Defensively, Derby have been vulnerable, conceding 1.75 goals per game and missing key defenders due to injury. Millwall's defenders, particularly J. Cooper and C. Taylor, contribute significantly to attack, adding an extra dimension to their play. Derby's midfield presence, led by B. Clark, offers some resistance but may struggle against Millwall's balanced squad.
Key facts
- 1.Millwall are 12th in the league with 15 points from 11 games (W4 D3 L4).
- 2.Derby sit 23rd with 6 points from 11 games (W1 D3 L7).
- 3.Millwall have won 9 of 20 head-to-head meetings against Derby's 5.
- 4.Millwall's goal difference is significantly better than Derby's this season.
- 5.Millwall average 1.83 goals per home game, above the league average.
- 6.Dery concede 1.75 goals per game, highlighting defensive struggles.
- 7.Millwall defenders J. Cooper and C. Taylor contribute goals and assists.
- 8.Derby missing key defenders, weakening their backline.
Prediction
The most probable outcome is a Millwall win with a halftime lead of 1-0 and a fulltime scoreline of 3-1. The match is expected to feature around four cards, reflecting a competitive but controlled encounter. Millwall's superior form, home advantage, and attacking contributions from defenders make them the clear favourites.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Millwall
Away — Derby
The verdict
Millwall look set to continue their solid season with a confident home win over Derby. While Derby will fight hard, their defensive frailties and lower league standing suggest they will find it tough to keep the Lions at bay. Expect Millwall to take the points with a 3-1 victory.
Prediction generated 24 Oct 2026, 13:29 UTC · Fipster Model v1.165
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Lisbie
Assist: Dykes
Lisbie
Assist: Taylor
Cundle
Assist: Neghli
Dykes
Yellow Card
Mazou-Sacko
Yellow Card
Ozoh
Brewster
Yellow Card
Meister
Crama
Dykes
Morris
Yellow Card
Neghli
Lisbie
Morris
Brewster
Norton Sturge
Szmodics
Cooper
Assist: Ivanović
Bilbija
Metcalfe
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | +10 | 25 |
| 13 |  Norwich | 13 | 5 | 0 | 8 | -1 | 15 |
| 14 |  Millwall | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 15 |
| 15 |  Bristol City | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 15 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -8 | 8 |
| 23 |  Derby | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | -11 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston | 13 | 1 | 2 | 10 | -17 | 5 |
Match Statistics
Millwall
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 3Zak Norton SturgeD
- 4T. CramaD
- 5J. CooperD
- 6C. TaylorD
- 10C. NeghliM
- 13L. DykesF
- 14Jenson MetcalfeM
- 15M. CrocombeG
- 22K. LisbieM
- 25L. CundleM
- 49D. Mazou-SackoM
Substitutes
- 9M. IvanovićF
- 11R. EsseM
- 12E. BaggottD
- 16D. KellyM
- 17M. SykesM
- 18R. LeonardD
- 19J. CoburnF
- 41G. EvansG
- 45A. DoughtyM
Derby
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1J. Widell ZetterströmG
- 4D. OzohM
- 8B. ClarkM
- 9C. MorrisF
- 10R. BrewsterM
- 11S. SzmodicsM
- 14J. RobinsonD
- 19H. MeisterM
- 22M. JohnstonD
- 24R. NyambeD
- 26R. HedgesD
Substitutes
- 13F. BilbijaM
- 15L. SalvesenF
- 16M. FuseiniF
- 20A. MowattM
- 25S. DuffyD
- 29O. FrauloM
- 31J. VickersG
- 33C. Blackett-TaylorF
- 43I. GordonD
Millwall
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Lisbie | M | 74 | 8.6 | 2 | — | 6 | 3 | 1 | — |
| L. Cundle | M | 90 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1/1 |
| J. Cooper | D | 90 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| M. Ivanović | F | 22 | 7.7 | — | 1 | — | — | 3 | 1/1 |
| C. Neghli | M | 74 | 7.7 | — | 1 | 2 | — | 5 | 2/2 |
| C. Taylor | D | 90 | 7.4 | — | 1 | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| D. Mazou-Sacko | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | — |
| T. Crama | D | 67 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Zak Norton Sturge | D | 78 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| R. Leonard | D | 23 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Crocombe | G | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Doughty | M | 16 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| M. Sykes | M | 16 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2/2 |
| L. Dykes | F | 68 | 6.5 | — | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | — |
| R. Esse | M | 12 | 6.4 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Jenson Metcalfe | M | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| G. Evans | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Kelly | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Baggott | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Coburn | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Derby
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Salvesen | F | 12 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Bilbija | M | 12 | 6.6 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| J. Widell Zetterström | G | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Brewster | M | 78 | 6.4 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | — |
| A. Mowatt | M | 53 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Szmodics | M | 78 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | 3 | — |
| M. Fuseini | F | 33 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/4 |
| R. Nyambe | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Morris | F | 78 | 6.1 | — | — | 4 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| R. Hedges | D | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O. Fraulo | M | 12 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| D. Ozoh | M | 37 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| J. Robinson | D | 90 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Meister | M | 57 | 5.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| B. Clark | M | 90 | 5.5 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/2 |
| M. Johnston | D | 90 | 5.4 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| J. Vickers | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Duffy | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Gordon | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Blackett-Taylor | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Millwall vs Derby?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Millwall to win against Derby.
- What score did Fipster predict for Millwall vs Derby?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Millwall 3–1 Derby.
- What were the win probabilities for Millwall vs Derby?
- Fipster's model gave Millwall a 95% chance of winning, Derby a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.