Maritimo vs Casa Pia
Maritimo edges Casa Pia in tight contest
A solitary strike from Raphael Guzzo secures all three points for Maritimo.
Maritimo claimed a narrow 1-0 victory over Casa Pia in the Primeira Liga thanks to Raphael Guzzo's second-half goal. The match was a closely fought affair with Guzzo's strike proving decisive after the break. Fipster's prediction of a home win was on the money, albeit with a slightly different scoreline in mind.
Analysis
As the new season kicks off, Maritimo and Casa Pia face off in what promises to be a tight encounter. Both teams start with zero points, eager to make a strong first impression in the league.
This match marks the opening round of the regular season, with both Maritimo and Casa Pia yet to register any results. Maritimo sit 11th and Casa Pia 15th in the league standings, reflecting their fresh start and the early stage of the campaign.
The prediction leans slightly towards a home win for Maritimo, with a 33% probability compared to 30% each for a draw or an away win. The most likely full-time scoreline for a home victory is 2-1, which edges out other home win possibilities like 1-0 or 2-0. The forecast also suggests a moderately disciplined game with an expected total of four cards.
Prediction
Expect Maritimo to clinch a 2-1 victory over Casa Pia. The match should be competitive, but the home side's slight edge in probabilities and the predicted scoreline point to a narrow win to start their season on a positive note.
Outcome probability
Match factors
Outcome Probabilities
Home win probability is 0.33, draw and away win both 0.3, indicating a slight edge for home win.
Modal Scorelines
Most likely home win scoreline is 2-1 (0.16), draw is 1-1 (0.18), away win is 1-2 (0.15).
Card Predictions
Most probable total cards count is 4 with 30% probability.
Key Takeaways
While the confidence level is moderate due to the close probabilities among outcomes, Maritimo's home advantage and the predicted scoreline make them favourites to take all three points. Fans can anticipate a spirited contest with a few cards to keep things lively.
- Maritimo are ranked 11th in the league with 0 points from 0 games.
- Casa Pia are ranked 15th in the league with 0 points from 0 games.
- Home win probability stands at 33%, slightly higher than draw or away win at 30%.
- Most probable full-time scoreline for a home win is 2-1 with a 16% chance.
- The modal overall scoreline is 1-1, but home win is favoured here.
- Expected total number of cards in the match is 4, with a 30% probability.
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Head to Head
Sousa
Yellow Card
Raphael Guzzo
Assist: Tejón
Osundina
Abdu Conté
Gabi Pereira
Pérez
João Goulart
Diouri
Jatta
Yellow Card
Tejón
Butzke
Danilović
Raphael Guzzo
Yellow Card
Raphael Guzzo
Yellow Card
Match Statistics
Maritimo
4-3-3Starting XI
- 2Igor JuliãoD
- 4Rafael FernandesD
- 6Rodrigo AndradeM
- 10Martín TejónF
- 11M. DiouriF
- 13Alfonso PastorG
- 14Raphael GuzzoM
- 17Adrián ButzkeF
- 18V. DanilovićM
- 23Paulo HenriqueD
- 44Romain CorreiaD
Substitutes
- 22G. SzalaiD
- 25Jesús SantiagoM
- 68N. BatistaM
- 90Maurice Osei BoakyeF
Casa Pia
4-3-3Starting XI
- 4João GoulartD
- 5Abdu ContéD
- 8Gabi PereiraM
- 9Henrique AraújoF
- 10RochinhaF
- 13K. OsundinaF
- 18GeraldesD
- 24S. PérezM
- 31André GomesG
- 43David SousaD
- 80L. OforiM
Substitutes
- 3KalyD
- 11Raúl BlancoM
- 19K. PrietoF
- 20A. JattaF
- 22Daniel AzevedoG
- 27Kaique RochaD
- 59Abdu DafeM
- 75Pedro RosasD
- 95Ivan MandićG
- 99ClaudioF
Maritimo
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raphael Guzzo | M | 91 | 8.0 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | — | 1/1 |
| Martín Tejón | F | 87 | 7.5 | — | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3/4 |
| Rodrigo Andrade | M | 96 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Vladan Danilović | M | 91 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Adrián Butzke | F | 87 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Rafael Fernandes | D | 96 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Igor Julião | D | 96 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Paulo Henrique | D | 96 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Simo Bouzaidi | F | 82 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | — | 5 | 1/2 |
| Alfonso Pastor | G | 96 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Romain Correia(C) | D | 96 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Yellu Santiago | M | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gábor Szalai | D | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nelio Batista | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Maurice Boakye | F | 9 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Casa Pia
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| André Gomes | G | 96 | 7.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Abdu Conté | D | 66 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Rochinha | F | 96 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1/4 |
| João Goulart | D | 81 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| David Sousa | D | 96 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Sebastián Pérez | M | 80 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Gabi Pereira | M | 78 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| André Geraldes(C) | D | 96 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Lawrence Ofori | M | 96 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Henrique Araújo | F | 96 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| Oluwakorede Osundina | F | 66 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/3 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Daniel Azevedo | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ivan Mandić | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Raúl Blanco | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Claudio Mendes | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Abdu Dafe | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kaique Rocha | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kevin Prieto | F | 30 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| Domingos Jose Gabriel Bandeira | D | 15 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pedro Rosas | D | 30 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/3 |
| Alassana Jatta | F | 18 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |