Manchester United vs Nottingham Forest
Match recap
Manchester United beat Nottingham Forest 3–2 in their Premier League fixture. Shaw, Matheus Cunha, and Mbeumo scored for Manchester United; Morato and Gibbs-White replied for Nottingham Forest. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 4.19 for Manchester United versus 1.75 for Nottingham Forest. Manchester United sit 3rd in the Premier League table while Nottingham Forest are 16th.
Analysis
As the Premier League season nears its climax, Manchester United host Nottingham Forest in a fixture promising goals and drama. Both teams have their eyes on points, but the Red Devils' home advantage and superior form make them favourites.
Historically, Manchester United have dominated this fixture, winning six of the last ten encounters. Nottingham Forest, while resilient, have struggled away from home and currently sit lower in the league standings. The match is set at Old Trafford, where United boast a strong scoring record this season.
Manchester United's attacking threat is spearheaded by B. Šeško, who despite injury concerns, remains a key goal scorer with 11 goals this season and a strong home record. Bruno Fernandes, the creative engine with 19 assists, is unfortunately sidelined, which could slightly blunt United's chance creation. Nottingham Forest's top scorer M. Gibbs-White is also injured, potentially limiting their offensive threat. Defensive vulnerabilities on both sides suggest a competitive match, with an expected lively first half ending 1-1 before United clinch it 2-1.
Prediction
We predict a 2-1 home win for Manchester United, with the halftime scoreline likely to be 1-1. The match should see around four cards, reflecting a competitive but fair contest. Confidence in this prediction is high at 85%, supported by statistical trends and player form.
Outcome probability
Key Insights
Key attackers missing for Manchester United
Šeško, Cunha, and Mbeumo are injured, reducing attacking options despite predicted 2 goals
Bruno Fernandes' absence weakens creative midfield
Fernandes leads assists and passing accuracy; his injury may reduce chance creation
Manchester United's strong home scoring form
Average 2 goals per home game with consistent scoring streaks supports predicted win
Nottingham Forest's recent scoring streak
Forest scored in last 5 games, showing attacking resilience despite lower overall form
Defensive solidity concerns for Manchester United
Injuries and suspensions to key defenders may expose vulnerabilities against Forest's attack
Key Takeaways
In summary, Manchester United's home advantage and superior form should see them edge Nottingham Forest in a closely fought encounter. While injuries to key players on both sides add an element of unpredictability, the Red Devils' quality and scoring prowess are expected to prevail.
- Manchester United have won 6 of the last 10 meetings against Nottingham Forest.
- Average goals per match in this fixture is 2.9, with United scoring 19 and Forest 10 in total.
- Manchester United currently sit 3rd in the league with 65 points; Nottingham Forest are 15th with 43 points.
- United have a +15 goal difference this season; Forest have -2.
- Manchester United average 1.81 points per game compared to Nottingham Forest's 1.19.
- B. Šeško is Manchester United's top scorer with 11 goals, boasting a strong home scoring rate.
- Bruno Fernandes leads the league with 19 assists but is injured for this match.
- Nottingham Forest's top scorer M. Gibbs-White is also injured, impacting their attacking options.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Manchester United
Away — Nottingham Forest
No standout top scorers flagged for Nottingham Forest
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Shaw
Morato
Assist: Anderson
Matheus Cunha
Goal confirmed
Domínguez
Hutchinson
Wood
Mbeumo
Assist: Bruno Fernandes
Casemiro
Yellow Card
Gibbs-White
Assist: Anderson
Matheus Cunha
Mbeumo
Casemiro
Netz
Igor Jesus
Shaw
Yellow Card
Anderson
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 38 | 26 | 7 | 5 | +44 | 85 |
| 2 |  Manchester City | 38 | 23 | 9 | 6 | +42 | 78 |
| 3 |  Manchester United | 38 | 20 | 11 | 7 | +19 | 71 |
| 4 |  Aston Villa | 38 | 19 | 8 | 11 | +7 | 65 |
| 15 |  Crystal Palace | 38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | -10 | 45 |
| 16 |  Nottingham Forest | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | -3 | 44 |
| 17 |  Tottenham | 38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | -9 | 41 |
Match Statistics
Manchester United
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 2Diogo DalotD
- 5H. MaguireD
- 6Lisandro MartínezD
- 8Bruno FernandesM
- 10Matheus CunhaM
- 16A. DialloM
- 18CasemiroM
- 19B. MbeumoF
- 23L. ShawD
- 31S. LammensG
- 37K. MainooM
Substitutes
- 1A. BayındırG
- 3N. MazraouiD
- 7M. MountM
- 11J. ZirkzeeF
- 12T. MalaciaD
- 13P. DorguD
- 15L. YoroD
- 25M. UgarteM
- 26A. HeavenD
Nottingham Forest
4-4-2Starting XI
- 3N. WilliamsD
- 4MoratoD
- 8E. AndersonM
- 10M. Gibbs-WhiteM
- 11C. WoodF
- 16N. DomínguezM
- 19Igor JesusF
- 21O. HutchinsonM
- 25L. NetzD
- 26M. SelsG
- 31N. MilenkovićD
Substitutes
- 6I. SangaréM
- 9T. AwoniyiF
- 13JohnG
- 22R. YatesM
- 23JairD
- 24J. McAteeM
- 27S. OrtegaG
- 29D. BakwaF
- 44Z. AbbottD
Manchester United
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruno Fernandes(C) | M | 99 | 8.7 | — | 1 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 0/3 |
| Matheus Cunha | M | 80 | 8.3 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3/3 |
| Lisandro Martínez | D | 99 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Luke Shaw | D | 99 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Senne Lammens | G | 99 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Casemiro | M | 81 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| Harry Maguire | D | 99 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Bryan Mbeumo | F | 80 | 6.9 | 1 | — | 4 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Kobbie Mainoo | M | 99 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 3 | — |
| Diogo Dalot | D | 99 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Amad Diallo | M | 99 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1/5 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Noussair Mazraoui | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tyrell Malacia | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Altay Bayındır | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Manuel Ugarte | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Leny Yoro | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ayden Heaven | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mason Mount | M | 18 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2/2 |
| Patrick Dorgu | D | 19 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Joshua Zirkzee | F | 19 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0/1 |
Nottingham Forest
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elliot Anderson | M | 99 | 9.3 | — | 2 | — | — | 3 | 3/5 |
| Morgan Gibbs-White(C) | M | 99 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3/7 |
| Morato | D | 99 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Nicolás Domínguez | M | 70 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Neco Williams | D | 99 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| Nikola Milenković | D | 99 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Igor Jesus | F | 84 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Omari Hutchinson | M | 70 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/4 |
| Matz Sels | G | 99 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Chris Wood | F | 70 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Luca Netz | D | 84 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Ryan Yates | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Zach Abbott | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| John Victor | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stefan Ortega | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| James McAtee | M | 15 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Jair | D | 15 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Dilane Bakwa | F | 29 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Ibrahim Sangaré | M | 29 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Taiwo Awoniyi | F | 29 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |