Machida Zelvia vs Nagoya Grampus
Match recap
Machida Zelvia beat Nagoya Grampus 2–1 in their J1 League fixture. Nakayama and Shimoda scored for Machida Zelvia; Takamine and Nagai replied for Nagoya Grampus. Machida Zelvia held 49% possession to 51% for Nagoya Grampus.
Analysis
Machida Zelvia host Nagoya Grampus in what promises to be a tightly contested fixture. Both sides have shown attacking prowess, but Machida's home advantage and past successes against Nagoya set the stage for a thrilling encounter.
In this competition's 5th place round, Machida Zelvia have demonstrated solid performances, ranking 3rd in their league with 37 points from 18 games. Their head-to-head record against Nagoya Grampus is favourable, having won 5 of their last 8 meetings. Nagoya, while competitive, have struggled defensively on the road, which could prove costly.
Machida Zelvia's consistent scoring at home, spearheaded by Erik's impressive goal conversion and recent form, gives them a tactical edge. Nagoya Grampus boast attacking talents like Yuya Yamagishi but have shown defensive vulnerabilities away from home. The average of 3 goals in their head-to-head matches supports an open game, with Machida's historical advantage and home comfort likely to tip the scales in their favour.
Prediction
We predict a 2-1 victory for Machida Zelvia. Erik is expected to continue his scoring streak, supported by key assists from Kotaro Hayashi. Nagoya will fight hard, with Yuya Yamagishi posing a threat, but Machida's home form and defensive resilience should secure the win. Expect around 4 cards as the match intensity rises.
Outcome probability
Key Insights
Machida's home scoring streak vs Nagoya's leaky defense
Machida scores consistently at home; Nagoya concedes frequently away, favoring Machida attack.
Erik's superior goal conversion rate
Erik outperforms league average attackers in goals per 90 and shot accuracy, boosting scoring chances.
Nagoya's attacking form strong but defensive lapses persist
Nagoya scores in all recent matches but concedes often, indicating open games likely.
Recent encounters show balanced scoring from both sides
Both teams have scored in recent matches against each other, supporting a competitive fixture.
No significant injuries reported for either team
Full squads expected, so tactical plans rely on usual starters and form.
Key Takeaways
Machida Zelvia look set to edge out Nagoya Grampus in a competitive fixture. Their home advantage, combined with a strong head-to-head record and key player performances, makes them the favourites to claim a narrow 2-1 win.
- Machida Zelvia have won 5 of 8 head-to-head matches against Nagoya Grampus.
- Head-to-head matches average 3.0 total goals, indicating open play.
- Machida Zelvia rank 3rd in their league with 37 points from 18 games.
- Erik has multiple goals in the last 5 games with a high shot conversion rate.
- Nagoya Grampus' top scorer Yuya Yamagishi scored 3 goals in the last match.
- Machida's Kotaro Hayashi is a key playmaker with recent assists.
- Nagoya Grampus concede frequently away, favouring Machida's attack.
- The match is expected to see around 4 cards due to competitive intensity.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Machida Zelvia
Away — Nagoya Grampus
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Shōji
Yellow Card
Kimura
Yellow Card
Takamine
Missed Penalty
Erik
Yellow Card
Mae
Yellow Card
Fujio
Yamagishi
Nogami
Izumi
Kimura
Takamine
Yellow Card
Shōji
Erik
Takamine
Red Card
Takamine
Yellow Card
Nakamura
Sato
Shirasaki
Okamura
Nagai
Assist: Koda
Morishima
Nakayama
Assist: Kuwayama
Shimoda
Assist: Nakayama
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Kashima | 18 | 15 | 0 | 3 | +20 | 45 |
| 2 |  FC Tokyo | 18 | 13 | 0 | 5 | +14 | 37 |
| 3 |  Machida Zelvia | 18 | 13 | 0 | 5 | +6 | 37 |
| 4 |  Kawasaki Frontale | 18 | 10 | 0 | 8 | -2 | 28 |
Match Statistics
Machida Zelvia
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 1Kosei TaniG
- 3Gen ShōjiD
- 7Yuki SomaF
- 9Shota FujioF
- 16Hiroyuki MaeM
- 19Yūta NakayamaD
- 23Ryōhei ShirasakiM
- 26Kotaro HayashiM
- 27ErikF
- 50Daihachi OkamuraD
- 88Hotaka NakamuraM
Substitutes
- 5Ibrahim DreševićD
- 6Henry Heroki MochizukiD
- 8Keiya SentoM
- 10Na Sang-HoF
- 11Asahi MasuyamaM
- 13Tatsuya MoritaG
- 18Hokuto ShimodaM
- 39Byron Gustavo Andrés Vásquez MaragañoM
- 49Kanji KuwayamaF
Nagoya Grampus
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 1Daniel Yuji Yabuki SchmidtG
- 2Yuki NogamiD
- 3Yota SatoD
- 7Ryuji IzumiF
- 9Yuya AsanoM
- 11Yuya YamagishiF
- 13Haruya FujiiD
- 14Tsukasa MorishimaM
- 22Yudai KimuraF
- 27Katsuhiro NakayamaM
- 31Tomoki TakamineM
Substitutes
- 16Yohei TakedaG
- 17Takuya UchidaM
- 18Kensuke NagaiF
- 19Hidemasa KodaM
- 20Kennedy Egbus MikuniD
- 30S. SugiuraF
- 32H. SuzukiM
- 33Taichi KikuchiM
- 41Masahito OnoM
Machida Zelvia
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yuta Nakayama | D | 120 | 8.2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0/1 |
| Kosei Tani | G | 120 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ryohei Shirasaki | M | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gen Shoji(C) | D | 85 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Yuki Soma | F | 120 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1/3 |
| Kotaro Hayashi | M | 120 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 4 | — |
| Shota Fujio | F | 69 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| Hiroyuki Mae | M | 120 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Daihachi Okamura | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Hotaka Nakamura | M | 89 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Erik | F | 85 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Asahi Masuyama | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tatsuya Morita | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Keiya Sento | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hokuto Shimoda | M | 30 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 5 | — |
| Ibrahim Drešević | D | 35 | 7.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| Byron Vásquez | M | 30 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Henry Heroki Mochizuki | D | 31 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Kanji Kuwayama | F | 35 | 6.6 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Sang-Ho Na | F | 51 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/3 |
Nagoya Grampus
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haruya Fujii | D | 120 | 9.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/2 |
| Tsukasa Morishima | M | 95 | 7.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Yuki Nogami | D | 75 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Yota Sato | D | 89 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Katsuhiro Nakayama | M | 120 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/2 |
| Yuya Yamagishi | F | 75 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| Daniel Schmidt | G | 120 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yudai Kimura | F | 84 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Ryuji Izumi(C) | F | 84 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yuya Asano | M | 120 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1/3 |
| Tomoki Takamine | M | 98 | 6.2 | — | — | 5 | 2 | 1 | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Taichi Kikuchi | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Shungo Sugiura | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yohei Takeda | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kensuke Nagai | F | 45 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/2 |
| Hidemasa Koda | M | 36 | 7.0 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| Takuya Uchida | M | 45 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Masahito Ono | M | 25 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Haruto Suzuki | M | 36 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kennedy Egbus Mikuni | D | 31 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |