Luxembourg vs Bulgaria
Match recap
Bulgaria beat Luxembourg 2–0 in their UEFA Nations League fixture. Balov and Iliev scored for Bulgaria. Luxembourg held 63% possession to 37% for Bulgaria.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
1-2 Bulgaria win
Actual
0–2
Outcome probability
This League C fixture between Luxembourg and Bulgaria promises a keenly contested battle. Both sides have shown glimpses of attacking prowess, but Bulgaria's recent form and key players could tip the scales in their favour.
Match factors
Bulgaria's attacking edge with Iliev and Balov
Iliev and Balov have strong recent scoring form, likely to exploit Luxembourg's defensive struggles
Luxembourg's midfield scoring potential via Thill and Barreiro
Thill and Barreiro show above-average goal rates for midfielders, key to Luxembourg's goal hopes
Bulgaria's defensive solidity with Velkovski and Tsenov
Velkovski and Tsenov provide defensive stability and assist potential, aiding Bulgaria's control
No confirmed injuries affecting key players
Both teams have full squads available, no confirmed outs to impact predicted lineups
The context
In this League C campaign, Luxembourg have struggled somewhat with a record of one win and three losses, scoring twice but conceding seven. Bulgaria's form is mixed with one win, one draw, and two losses, netting three goals and conceding five. Historically, Bulgaria have the upper hand in their head-to-head meetings, having won twice with three draws against Luxembourg.
Key insights
Atanas Petrov Iliev
Bulgaria
Iliev is Bulgaria's top scorer with 1 goal in 2 games, making him a primary goal threat in this competition.
UEFA Nations League 26/271 goal in 2 appearances
Vincent Thill
Luxembourg
Thill offers above-average goal scoring for a midfielder with 1 goal in 4 games, key to Luxembourg's attacking hopes.
UEFA Nations League 26/271 goal in 4 appearances
Dimitar Valentinov Velkovski
Bulgaria
Velkovski provides defensive solidity and contributes assists, enhancing Bulgaria's control at the back.
UEFA Nations League 26/271 assist in 3 appearances
Analysis
Bulgaria's attacking threat is spearheaded by Atanas Petrov Iliev, who has been in fine form with a goal in this competition and is a key figure in their offensive play. Alongside him, Kristiyan Teodorov Balov adds further firepower. Defensively, Bulgaria benefit from the solidity and assist potential of Dimitar Valentinov Velkovski and Emil Ivanov Tsenov, providing balance and control. Luxembourg, meanwhile, rely on midfielders Vincent Thill and Leandro Barreiro Martins for goal contributions and creativity, but their defensive vulnerabilities may be exploited by Bulgaria's attackers.
Key facts
- 1.Luxembourg have played 4 matches in this competition (W1 D0 L3, GF 2 / GA 7).
- 2.Bulgaria have played 4 matches in this competition (W1 D1 L2, GF 3 / GA 5).
- 3.In 5 head-to-head meetings, Luxembourg have won 0, Bulgaria have won 2, with 3 draws.
- 4.Atanas Petrov Iliev is a key offensive threat for Bulgaria with 1 goal in this fixture.
- 5.Vincent Thill has scored 1 goal in 4 appearances for Luxembourg in this competition.
- 6.Dimitar Valentinov Velkovski provides defensive stability and assist potential for Bulgaria.
Prediction
The prediction leans towards an away win for Bulgaria with a 2-1 scoreline. The halftime score is expected to be 0-1, reflecting Bulgaria's ability to strike first and maintain their lead. Despite Luxembourg's efforts, Bulgaria's combination of attacking efficiency and defensive organisation should see them through.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Luxembourg
Away — Bulgaria
The verdict
While the match could be finely balanced, Bulgaria's recent performances and key player contributions suggest they will edge out Luxembourg. Fans can expect a competitive game with Bulgaria ultimately securing the victory by a narrow margin.
Prediction generated 13 Oct 2026, 09:05 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
FIFA world ranking
Balov
Assist: Tsenov
Rusev
Yellow Card
Iliev
Assist: Rusev
Velkov
Yellow Card
de Pina Duarte dos Santos
Videira Pereira
Moris
Rusev
Stoyanov
Yellow Card
Balov
Iliev
de Sousa Moreira Cruz
Veiga
Carlson
Yellow Card
Minchev
Match Statistics
Luxembourg
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1A. MorisG
- 4F. BohnertD
- 5V. SelimovićD
- 6J. de Sousa Moreira CruzM
- 8E. de Pina Duarte dos SantosM
- 9Jayson Videira PereiraF
- 11V. ThillM
- 13D. CarlsonD
- 14E. VeigaD
- 15Omar NatamiM
- 17H. KadamaniM
Substitutes
- 2E. DžogovićD
- 7Aiman DardariF
- 10T. RupilM
- 12T. Pereira CardosoG
- 16T. KipsG
- 18S. IkeneD
- 19M. OlesenM
- 20M. GoncalvesM
- 21S. ThillM
- 22M. MartinsD
- 23L. FoxG
Bulgaria
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1D. NaumovG
- 2Y. StoyanovD
- 4I. GruevM
- 6E. TsenovD
- 8A. KraevM
- 9A. IlievF
- 11G. RusevM
- 13S. VelkovD
- 15H. PetrovD
- 17M. MinchevM
- 18K. BalovM
Substitutes
- 3A. HristovD
- 5K. DimitrovD
- 7B. TsonevM
- 10Z. DimitrovF
- 12D. MitovG
- 14A. ChandarovM
- 16P. PanayotovM
- 19I. TuritsovD
- 20V. NikolovF
- 21S. IvanovF
- 22K. StoyanovM
- 23A. BozhevG
Luxembourg
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. Selimović | D | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | 3 | — | 1 | — |
| E. Veiga | D | 78 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Aiman Dardari | F | 44 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| M. Olesen | M | 44 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | 2 | — | 1/1 |
| D. Carlson | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Omar Natami | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1/3 |
| H. Kadamani | M | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 2/5 |
| V. Thill | M | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2/4 |
| A. Moris | G | 46 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jayson Videira Pereira | F | 46 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. de Sousa Moreira Cruz | M | 67 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| T. Rupil | M | 23 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| S. Thill | M | 12 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Bohnert | D | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/2 |
| E. de Pina Duarte dos Santos | M | 46 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| T. Pereira Cardoso | G | 44 | 5.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Ikene | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Kips | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Fox | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Džogović | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Martins | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Goncalves | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Bulgaria
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Naumov | G | 90 | 8.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Iliev | F | 66 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 4 | 2 | 1 | — |
| K. Balov | M | 66 | 8.1 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| G. Rusev | M | 50 | 7.6 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1/1 |
| Y. Stoyanov | D | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| S. Velkov | D | 90 | 7.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Tsenov | D | 90 | 7.4 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| M. Minchev | M | 83 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0/1 |
| K. Dimitrov | D | 7 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Panayotov | M | 40 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| H. Petrov | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| I. Gruev | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| V. Nikolov | F | 24 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| A. Kraev | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| S. Ivanov | F | 24 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| A. Hristov | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Bozhev | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Stoyanov | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Turitsov | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Chandarov | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Z. Dimitrov | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Tsonev | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Mitov | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Luxembourg vs Bulgaria?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Bulgaria to win against Luxembourg.
- What score did Fipster predict for Luxembourg vs Bulgaria?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Luxembourg 1–2 Bulgaria.
- What were the win probabilities for Luxembourg vs Bulgaria?
- Fipster's model gave Luxembourg a 32% chance of winning, Bulgaria a 36% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 36% confidence — a low-confidence call.