Los Angeles FC vs St. Louis City
Match recap
Los Angeles FC beat St. Louis City 2–0 in their Major League Soccer fixture. Choinière and Choinière scored for Los Angeles FC. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 0.82 for Los Angeles FC versus 1.15 for St. Louis City. Los Angeles FC sit 6th in the Major League Soccer table while St. Louis City are 2nd.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
2-1 Los Angeles FC win
Actual
2–0
Outcome probability
Los Angeles FC and St. Louis City face off in the MLS regular season round 4, promising a tight contest between two sides with strong attacking options and solid league form.
Match factors
LAFC's attacking midfield strength
LAFC's Bouanga and Son provide a potent attacking midfield duo with high goal and assist rates, likely to exploit St. Louis defense
St. Louis City's forward form
St. Louis City's Becher and Navarro show strong recent scoring form, posing a significant threat to LAFC's defense
LAFC's home scoring advantage
LAFC scores 1.86 goals per home game, above league average, supporting predicted home win
St. Louis City's scoring streak
St. Louis City has scored in their last 5 matches, showing strong offensive momentum
LAFC missing key striker Ebobisse
LAFC's confirmed absence of striker Ebobisse reduces forward depth, increasing reliance on midfield scorers
The context
Los Angeles FC currently sit 6th in the league, while St. Louis City hold a higher position at 2nd. Their recent head-to-head record shows LAFC with a slight edge, having won 5 of their 9 encounters against St. Louis City, who have won 2 with 2 draws.
Key insights
D. Bouanga
Los Angeles FC
Top scorer for LAFC with 14 goals, driving the team's offence with high recent scoring form.
Major League Soccer 26/2714 goals in 26 apps, 3 goals in last 5 games
- M
Mathieu Choinière
Los Angeles FC
Key midfield presence with multiple goals in this fixture, crucial in attack.
Major League Soccer 26/272 goals in this fixture
S. Becher
St. Louis City
Leading scorer with strong recent form, posing a significant threat to LAFC’s defence.
Major League Soccer 26/276 goals in 25 apps, 3 goals in last 5 games
Rafael Navarro
St. Louis City
Excellent recent scoring form with a high goal per game ratio, key offensive threat.
Major League Soccer 26/275 goals in last 5 games, 1.0 goals/game
Analysis
LAFC's attacking midfield duo, led by Mathieu Choinière who scored twice in this fixture, alongside D. Bouanga and Son Heung-Min, provides a potent offensive threat. St. Louis City's forwards, including S. Becher and Rafael Navarro, have been in good recent form, making this a competitive match-up. LAFC's home scoring average of 1.86 goals per game supports their chances, although the absence of key striker Ebobisse may increase reliance on midfield contributions.
Key facts
- 1.Los Angeles FC lead the head-to-head with 5 wins in 9 matches against St. Louis City.
- 2.St. Louis City are currently 2nd in the league, Los Angeles FC 6th.
- 3.Mathieu Choinière scored 2 goals in this fixture for Los Angeles FC.
- 4.LAFC averages 1.86 goals per home game, above the league average.
- 5.St. Louis City have scored in their last 5 matches, showing strong offensive momentum.
- 6.LAFC is missing key striker Ebobisse, increasing reliance on midfield scorers.
Prediction
The prediction favours a home win for Los Angeles FC with a 2-1 scoreline. Despite the close probabilities between all outcomes, LAFC's attacking strength and home scoring record give them a slight edge over St. Louis City in this encounter.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Los Angeles FC
Away — St. Louis City
The verdict
Expect a closely fought match with Los Angeles FC just about edging St. Louis City. Key players like Choinière and Bouanga will be crucial in breaking down a resilient St. Louis defence, making for an entertaining MLS fixture.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 18:50 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Delgado
Teuchert
Martínez
Son Heung-Min
Choinière
Becher
Choinière
Edelman
Rafael Santos
Bouanga
Raposo
Wallem
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | +32 | 55 |
| 2 |  St. Louis City | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +15 | 51 |
| 3 |  FC Dallas | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +8 | 51 |
| 5 |  Houston Dynamo | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | +2 | 47 |
| 6 |  Los Angeles FC | 31 | 12 | 10 | 9 | +15 | 46 |
| 7 |  Seattle Sounders | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | +2 | 42 |
Match Statistics
Los Angeles FC
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1H. LlorisG
- 4E. SeguraD
- 5R. PorteousD
- 7Son Heung-MinM
- 8M. DelgadoM
- 21R. RaposoD
- 27N. OrdazF
- 30D. MartínezM
- 66M. ChoinièreM
- 91N. TafariD
- 99D. BouangaM
Substitutes
- 11T. TillmanM
- 12T. HasalG
- 14Sergi PalenciaD
- 19T. BoydF
- 22Jude TerryM
- 24R. HollingsheadD
- 29A. SmolyakovD
- 45Kenny NielsenD
- 65A. BoudriM
St. Louis City
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 1R. BürkiG
- 6C. WallemM
- 8C. DurkinM
- 11S. BecherF
- 17M. HartelF
- 20Rafael SantosM
- 21D. PolvaraD
- 24D. EdelmanM
- 32T. BaumgartlD
- 36C. TeuchertF
- 99J. OrozcoD
Substitutes
- 4M. FallD
- 5L. MacNaughtonD
- 12Célio PompeuM
- 16S. CórdovaF
- 28M. PerezM
- 39B. LundtG
- 59M. JoynerM
- 77Jeong Sang-BinF
- 80Brendan McSorleyF
Los Angeles FC
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mathieu Choinière | M | 90 | 9.5 | 2 | — | 2 | 2 | — | — |
| Ryan Porteous | D | 90 | 7.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Eddie Segura | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Heung-min Son | M | 71 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Marky Delgado | M | 45 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Hugo Lloris(C) | G | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nkosi Tafari | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Raposo | D | 88 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Denis Bouanga | M | 86 | 6.7 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1/6 |
| David Martínez Morales | M | 45 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Nathan Ordaz | F | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Kenny Nielsen | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Artem Smoliakov | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sergi Palencia | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Thomas Hasal | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Timothy Tillman | M | 45 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Ryan Hollingshead | D | 10 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tyler Boyd | F | 45 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/3 |
| Amin Boudri | M | 19 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Jude Terry | M | 12 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
St. Louis City
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcel Hartel | F | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1/1 |
| Christopher Durkin | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Timo Baumgartl | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dante Polvara | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Roman Bürki(C) | G | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Edelman | M | 82 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Simon Becher | F | 77 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/3 |
| Jaziel Orozco | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Rafael Santos | M | 82 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Cedric Teuchert | F | 45 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/2 |
| Conrad Wallem | M | 89 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Mykhi Joyner | M | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Miguel Perez | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lukas MacNaughton | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Benjamin Lundt | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mamadou Mbacke | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Celio Pompeu | M | 8 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| Sergio Córdova | F | 45 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/2 |
| Sang-bin Jeong | F | 8 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Brendan McSorley | F | 13 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Los Angeles FC vs St. Louis City?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Los Angeles FC to win against St. Louis City.
- What score did Fipster predict for Los Angeles FC vs St. Louis City?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Los Angeles FC 2–1 St. Louis City.
- What were the win probabilities for Los Angeles FC vs St. Louis City?
- Fipster's model gave Los Angeles FC a 35% chance of winning, St. Louis City a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.