Los Angeles FC vs San Jose Earthquakes
Match recap
San Jose Earthquakes beat Los Angeles FC 4–1 in their Major League Soccer fixture. Roberts scored for Los Angeles FC; Bouda, Werner, Porteous, and Bouda replied for San Jose Earthquakes. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.04 for Los Angeles FC versus 1.38 for San Jose Earthquakes. Los Angeles FC sit 6th in the Major League Soccer table while San Jose Earthquakes are 4th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
2-0 Los Angeles FC win
Actual
1–4
Outcome probability
Los Angeles FC and San Jose Earthquakes face off in what promises to be a competitive MLS regular season encounter. Both teams have shown solid form, but the home side looks poised to edge this one with a confident performance.
Match factors
Home team's attacking midfield dominance
Los Angeles FC's D. Bouanga and Son Heung-Min combine high goal and assist rates, creating a potent attacking threat.
Away team's leading scorer in form
Preston Judd leads San Jose with 15 goals and strong recent scoring, posing a key threat despite predicted loss.
Los Angeles FC's positive scoring streak at home
LAFC has scored in 4 of last 5 home games, supporting the predicted 2-0 win.
Key absences weaken LAFC depth
Confirmed outs like J. Ebobisse and T. Tillman reduce attacking options, increasing reliance on Bouanga and Son.
San Jose's creative midfielders provide assist threat
N. Tsakiris and Beau Leroux have strong assist records, potentially unlocking chances despite defensive pressure.
The context
The two sides have a closely matched head-to-head record, with Los Angeles FC holding a slight edge in wins. San Jose Earthquakes currently sit higher in the league standings, adding an extra layer of intrigue to this clash. Historically, their meetings have been goal-rich affairs, averaging four goals per game.
Key insights
D. Bouanga
Los Angeles FC
League-leading scorer for home team with 15 goals and strong recent form, making him a key attacking threat.
Major League Soccer 26/2715 goals in 27 apps, 3 goals in last 5 games
Son Heung-Min
Los Angeles FC
Top assister with 10 assists and consistent goal threat, crucial for creating chances at home.
Major League Soccer 26/2710 assists in 26 apps, 6 goals in 26 apps
P. Judd
San Jose Earthquakes
Leading scorer for San Jose with 15 goals and excellent recent scoring form, posing a significant threat despite predicted loss.
Major League Soccer 26/2715 goals in 26 apps, 4 goals in last 5 games
N. Tsakiris
San Jose Earthquakes
Top assister for San Jose with 7 assists and strong recent form, key to unlocking chances from midfield.
Major League Soccer 26/277 assists in 19 apps, 2 assists in last 5 games
Analysis
Los Angeles FC's attacking midfield duo, D. Bouanga and Son Heung-Min, have been instrumental this season, combining for a significant number of goals and assists. Their home scoring streak supports the prediction of a solid win. San Jose's Preston Judd remains a potent threat with his recent goal-scoring form, but the visitors may struggle to break down a disciplined LAFC defence bolstered by consistent performers like R. Porteous and N. Tafari.
Key facts
- 1.Los Angeles FC and San Jose Earthquakes have a close head-to-head record with 9 and 8 wins respectively.
- 2.Head-to-head matches average 4.0 goals, indicating potential for multiple goals in this fixture.
- 3.San Jose Earthquakes rank 4th in the league, while Los Angeles FC are 6th, showing both teams are competitive.
- 4.Los Angeles FC have scored in 4 of their last 5 home games, highlighting strong home form.
- 5.Preston Judd is San Jose's leading scorer with 15 goals this season, showcasing his threat upfront.
- 6.D. Bouanga leads Los Angeles FC with 15 goals and has been in good recent form.
- 7.Son Heung-Min is the top assister for Los Angeles FC with 10 assists, key to their attacking play.
- 8.San Jose's N. Tsakiris and Beau Leroux provide creative midfield support with 7 assists each.
Prediction
We anticipate Los Angeles FC to take the lead by halftime and maintain control to secure a 2-0 victory. The match is expected to be competitive but ultimately dominated by the home side's attacking efficiency and defensive resilience.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Los Angeles FC
Away — San Jose Earthquakes
The verdict
This fixture should provide an entertaining contest with Los Angeles FC's attacking flair and home advantage proving decisive. San Jose Earthquakes will need to tighten their defence and find creative solutions to challenge the hosts' dominance.
Prediction generated 14 Oct 2026, 00:44 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Tillman
Yellow Card
Leroux
Yellow Card
Bouda
Assist: Werner
Werner
Assist: Leroux
Porteous
Yellow Card
Porteous (OG)
Segura
Martínez
Tillman
Roberts
Yellow Card
Bouanga
Yellow Card
Ricketts
Roberts (OG)
Werner
Leroux
Bouda
Assist: Tsakiris
Palencia
Vieira
Judd
Harkes
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | +32 | 55 |
| 3 |  FC Dallas | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +8 | 51 |
| 4 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | +10 | 48 |
| 5 |  Houston Dynamo | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | +2 | 47 |
| 6 |  Los Angeles FC | 31 | 12 | 10 | 9 | +15 | 46 |
| 7 |  Seattle Sounders | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | +2 | 42 |
Match Statistics
Los Angeles FC
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1H. LlorisG
- 4E. SeguraD
- 5R. PorteousD
- 7Son Heung-MinF
- 8M. DelgadoM
- 11T. TillmanM
- 14Sergi PalenciaD
- 30D. MartínezM
- 66M. ChoinièreM
- 91N. TafariD
- 99D. BouangaM
Substitutes
- 17J. EbobisseF
- 18J. ShaffelburgF
- 19T. BoydF
- 21R. RaposoM
- 22Jude TerryM
- 24R. HollingsheadD
- 27N. OrdazF
- 31Cabral CarterG
- 33A. LongD
San Jose Earthquakes
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 2J. RickettsD
- 5D. MunieD
- 7O. BoudaM
- 10N. TsakirisM
- 11T. WernerM
- 14R. VieiraM
- 18R. RobertsD
- 19P. JuddF
- 28B. KikanovicD
- 34Beau LerouxM
- 42DanielG
Substitutes
- 4D. RomneyD
- 6I. HarkesM
- 16J. SkahanM
- 17Jack JasinskiD
- 20N. FernandezM
- 21N. BuckM
- 25M. FlorianiD
- 36E. EdwardsG
- 40J. GónzalezM
Los Angeles FC
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Son Heung-min | F | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1/3 |
| Mark Delgado | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 3 | — |
| Mathieu Choinière | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nkosi Tafari | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Eddie Segura | D | 60 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| David Martínez Morales | M | 60 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/3 |
| Denis Bouanga | M | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 2/5 |
| Timothy Tillman | M | 60 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/2 |
| Ryan Porteous | D | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| Sergi Palencia | D | 81 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| Hugo Lloris(C) | G | 90 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Jude Terry | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nathan Ordaz | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cabral Carter | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Aaron Long | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tyler Boyd | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jacob Shaffelburg | F | 30 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | — | 3 | — |
| Ryan Raposo | M | 9 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Jeremy Ebobisse | F | 30 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Ryan Hollingshead | D | 30 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
San Jose Earthquakes
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timo Werner | M | 76 | 8.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2/4 |
| Ousseni Bouda | M | 90 | 8.2 | 2 | — | 4 | 3 | — | 1/2 |
| Daniel | G | 90 | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ronaldo Vieira(C) | M | 86 | 7.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Beau Leroux | M | 76 | 7.2 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | 5/6 |
| Niko Tsakiris | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 3 | 2/6 |
| Benjamin Kikanović | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Jamar Ricketts | D | 69 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Reid Roberts | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Daniel Munie | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Preston Judd | F | 86 | 6.0 | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | 0/3 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Jack Jasinski | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Earl Edwards Jr. | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Max Floriani | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Noel Buck | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jack Skahan | M | 14 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| Jonathan Gonzalez | M | 12 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nick Fernandez | M | 12 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dave Romney | D | 21 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ian Harkes | M | 14 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Los Angeles FC vs San Jose Earthquakes?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Los Angeles FC to win against San Jose Earthquakes.
- What score did Fipster predict for Los Angeles FC vs San Jose Earthquakes?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Los Angeles FC 2–0 San Jose Earthquakes.
- What were the win probabilities for Los Angeles FC vs San Jose Earthquakes?
- Fipster's model gave Los Angeles FC a 95% chance of winning, San Jose Earthquakes a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.