Los Angeles FC vs Austin
Los Angeles FC surge past Austin with commanding win
D. Bouanga's brace and Son Heung-Min's strike secure a confident 3-1 victory.
Los Angeles FC delivered a strong performance in Major League Soccer, overcoming Austin 3-1. After the break, D. Bouanga opened the scoring at 52' and quickly added a second at 67', with Son Heung-Min sealing the win at 72'. Austin's B. Vázquez managed a goal at 66', but it wasn't enough to stem the tide. Fipster's medium-confidence prediction of a home win was on the money, though the margin was more emphatic than forecast.
Outcome probability
Los Angeles FC and Austin face off in a crucial MLS regular season match where form and tactical discipline will be key. Both teams have had their moments this season, but the edge lies with Los Angeles FC, who have shown greater consistency and attacking threat.
Match factors
Bouanga's scoring form vs Austin's defense
Bouanga's 13 goals this season and strong recent form give LAFC a key edge against Austin's leaky defense
Son Heung-Min's dual threat
Son leads LAFC in assists (10) and contributes goals, enhancing LAFC's attacking options
Austin missing key playmaker Rosales
Rosales is confirmed out due to suspension, weakening Austin's midfield creativity and assist potential
Ramirez's recent scoring surge
Ramirez has scored 4 goals in last 5 matches, boosting Austin's chance to score despite overall underdog status
LAFC's defensive solidity with Porteous
Porteous's strong defensive stats and high rating contribute to LAFC's ability to keep a clean sheet
The context
This fixture is part of the 29th round of the MLS regular season. Los Angeles FC currently sit 6th in the league standings with 41 points, while Austin are positioned 13th with 31 points. Historically, Los Angeles FC have had the upper hand in their encounters, winning more than half of their meetings.
Key insights
Dénis Bouanga
Los Angeles FC
Bouanga's 13 goals this season and strong recent form give LAFC a key edge against Austin's defence.
Major League Soccer 26/2713 goals in 24 apps, 3 goals in last 5 matches
Son Heung-Min
Los Angeles FC
Son leads LAFC in assists (10) and contributes goals, enhancing LAFC's attacking options.
Major League Soccer 26/2710 assists in 23 apps, 6 goals in 23 apps
Christian Ramirez
Austin
Ramirez has scored 4 goals in last 5 matches, boosting Austin's chance to score despite underdog status.
Major League Soccer 26/279 goals in 23 apps, 4 goals in last 5 matches
- J
Joseph Rosales
Austin
Rosales is suspended, weakening Austin's midfield creativity and assist potential.
Major League Soccer 26/276 yellow cards in 25 games
- R
Ryan Porteous
Los Angeles FC
Porteous's strong defensive stats contribute to LAFC's ability to keep a clean sheet.
Major League Soccer 26/27High tackles and passes, above average defensive rating
Analysis
Los Angeles FC have demonstrated a strong head-to-head record against Austin, winning 9 of their 16 meetings and scoring nearly twice as many goals overall. Their top scorer, Dénis Bouanga, has been in fine form with 13 goals this season, including three in his last five matches, making him a significant threat. Son Heung-Min adds creativity and goal threat with 10 assists and 6 goals, providing a dual threat that Austin will struggle to contain. Austin's leading scorer Christian Ramirez has been impressive recently, netting four goals in his last five games, but the absence of key playmaker Joseph Rosales due to suspension weakens their midfield creativity. Defensively, Los Angeles FC benefit from Ryan Porteous's solidity, which should help keep a clean sheet against Austin's attack.
Key facts
- 1.Los Angeles FC have won 9 of 16 head-to-head matches against Austin.
- 2.Head-to-head matches average 2.7 total goals, with Los Angeles FC scoring 28 and Austin 15.
- 3.Los Angeles FC are 6th in the league with 41 points from 28 games.
- 4.Austin are 13th with 31 points from 28 games.
- 5.Dénis Bouanga is Los Angeles FC's top scorer with 13 goals this season.
- 6.Son Heung-Min leads Los Angeles FC with 10 assists this season.
- 7.Christian Ramirez has scored 4 goals in his last 5 matches for Austin.
- 8.Joseph Rosales is suspended and unavailable for Austin.
Prediction
The most probable outcome is a 1-0 victory for Los Angeles FC, with the halftime score also predicted to be 1-0. The match is expected to be competitive but controlled, with Los Angeles FC managing to edge out Austin by a single goal. The game may see around four cards, reflecting a moderately physical contest.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Los Angeles FC
Away — Austin
The verdict
In summary, Los Angeles FC's superior form, key player performances, and defensive stability give them the edge in this encounter. Austin will pose a threat, especially through Ramirez, but the absence of Rosales and Los Angeles FC's home advantage should see the hosts claim a narrow win.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 04:38 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Bouanga
Assist: Son Heung-Min
Sieb
Svatok
Igor Jesus
Vázquez
Assist: Uzuni
Bouanga
Assist: Son Heung-Min
Son Heung-Min
Assist: Shaffelburg
Cheberko
Šabović
Son Heung-Min
Torres
Torres
Walta
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | +32 | 55 |
| 5 |  Houston Dynamo | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | +2 | 47 |
| 6 |  Los Angeles FC | 31 | 12 | 10 | 9 | +15 | 46 |
| 7 |  Seattle Sounders | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | +2 | 42 |
| 13 |  Minnesota United FC | 30 | 8 | 10 | 12 | -8 | 34 |
| 14 |  Austin | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -18 | 31 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 30 | 6 | 4 | 20 | -39 | 22 |
Match Statistics
Los Angeles FC
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1H. LlorisG
- 5R. PorteousD
- 6Igor JesusM
- 7Son Heung-MinM
- 8M. DelgadoM
- 9A. SiebM
- 14Sergi PalenciaD
- 23Y. CheberkoD
- 33A. LongD
- 81L. WaltaM
- 99D. BouangaF
Substitutes
- 4E. SeguraD
- 12T. HasalG
- 18J. ShaffelburgF
- 19T. BoydF
- 20S. VasquezM
- 24R. HollingsheadD
- 43ThayllonF
- 66M. ChoinièreM
- 91N. TafariD
Austin
3-4-3Starting XI
- 1B. StuverG
- 4B. Hines-IkeD
- 5O. SvatokD
- 9B. VázquezF
- 11F. TorresF
- 14B. ŠabovićM
- 17J. GallagherM
- 21C. RamirezF
- 29Guilherme BiroD
- 30J. RosalesM
- 38Ervin TorresM
Substitutes
- 6Ilie SánchezM
- 10M. UzuniF
- 12D. LasG
- 15J. BellD
- 22Chris ApplewhiteD
- 24Jorge AlastueyM
- 32M. BurtonM
- 35M. ĐorđevićD
- 77P. PłachetaM
Los Angeles FC
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Son Heung-Min | M | 78 | 9.6 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1/3 |
| D. Bouanga | F | 90 | 9.0 | 2 | — | 8 | 4 | — | 1/2 |
| R. Porteous | D | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Sergi Palencia | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | 3 | — | 3 | — |
| L. Walta | M | 85 | 7.2 | — | — | 5 | 2 | 3 | — |
| Y. Cheberko | D | 78 | 7.1 | — | — | 1 | — | 3 | — |
| J. Shaffelburg | F | 27 | 7.1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| M. Delgado | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 3 | — |
| A. Long | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Boyd | F | 5 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| R. Hollingshead | D | 12 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| H. Lloris | G | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Igor Jesus | M | 63 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| M. Choinière | M | 27 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| S. Vasquez | M | 12 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Sieb | M | 63 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/3 |
| E. Segura | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Hasal | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Tafari | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Thayllon | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Austin
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Vázquez | F | 90 | 8.1 | 1 | — | 4 | 2 | — | 0/1 |
| B. Stuver | G | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Rosales | M | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1/3 |
| M. Uzuni | F | 27 | 6.7 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | 1/2 |
| J. Gallagher | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 2/4 |
| B. Hines-Ike | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| O. Svatok | D | 63 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Guilherme Biro | D | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 3/3 |
| F. Torres | F | 81 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | 3 | 0/2 |
| B. Šabović | M | 78 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/2 |
| C. Ramirez | F | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Ervin Torres | M | 81 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Jorge Alastuey | M | 12 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| P. Płacheta | M | 9 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Ilie Sánchez | M | 9 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Bell | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Las | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Đorđević | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Burton | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Chris Applewhite | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Los Angeles FC vs Austin?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Los Angeles FC to win against Austin.
- What score did Fipster predict for Los Angeles FC vs Austin?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Los Angeles FC 1–0 Austin.
- What were the win probabilities for Los Angeles FC vs Austin?
- Fipster's model gave Los Angeles FC a 54% chance of winning, Austin a 23% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 54% confidence — a medium-confidence call.