Lithuania vs Azerbaijan
Lithuania and Azerbaijan share spoils
Early goals set the tone in a tight UEFA Nations League draw.
Lithuania took an early lead through A. Kučys' penalty in the 9th minute, only for M. Emreli to equalise for Azerbaijan five minutes later. The match ended 1-1, a result that defied Fipster's low-confidence prediction of a narrow home win. Both sides settled for a point in this evenly matched encounter.
Outcome probability
Lithuania and Azerbaijan face off in a League D match where both sides will be eager to claim valuable points. With recent form and tactical setups in mind, this promises to be a competitive fixture.
Match factors
Lithuania's strong recent away form
Lithuania won their last away match 2-0 with goals from Michelbrink and Dolžnikov, showing good attacking and defensive balance
Midfield creativity to unlock Azerbaijan defense
Gineitis and Michelbrink's recent assist and goal contributions suggest Lithuania's midfield will be key in creating chances
Lithuania's defensive solidity
Lithuania kept a clean sheet in their last away game, indicating a strong defensive setup likely to challenge Azerbaijan's attack
No confirmed injuries for either team
Both teams have full squads available, so no key absences will affect tactical plans or player availability
The context
This match is part of the League D phase, where both teams are looking to improve their standings. Lithuania have played one match in this competition so far, winning 2-0, while Azerbaijan seek to bounce back and challenge strongly.
Key insights
- L
Lukas Michelbrink
Lithuania
Scored in last away match with strong 8.2 rating, showing key attacking influence.
UEFA Nations League 26/272 shots and 80 passes in 90 mins in last away match
- G
G. Gineitis
Lithuania
Provided assist in last away match and linked play effectively with 84 passes.
UEFA Nations League 26/27High passing volume and creative midfield role
- E
E. Utkus
Lithuania
Played full 90 mins with strong defensive presence, key to maintaining clean sheet.
UEFA Nations League 26/27144 passes with tackles and interceptions in last match
Analysis
Lithuania's recent away win showcased their attacking and defensive balance, with key contributions from midfielders Lukas Michelbrink and G. Gineitis. Their ability to create chances and maintain defensive discipline could prove decisive. Azerbaijan will need to break down this midfield creativity and find ways to challenge Lithuania's solid backline. Both teams have full squads available, so tactical execution will be crucial.
Key facts
- 1.Lithuania have played 1 match in this competition, winning 2-0.
- 2.The predicted fulltime scoreline is 2-1 in favour of Lithuania.
- 3.Lithuania's midfielders Michelbrink and Gineitis have recent goal and assist contributions.
- 4.Lithuania kept a clean sheet in their last away game in this competition.
- 5.Both teams have full squads available with no confirmed injuries.
Prediction
The prediction favours a home win for Lithuania with a 2-1 scoreline. While the probabilities for all outcomes are relatively close, Lithuania's recent form and midfield strength give them a slight edge. Expect a tightly contested match with Lithuania just shading it.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Lithuania
Away — Azerbaijan
No standout best passers flagged for Azerbaijan
The verdict
In summary, Lithuania's blend of creative midfield play and defensive resilience should see them through to a narrow victory over Azerbaijan. However, the match is finely balanced, and Azerbaijan will be keen to spoil the party.
Prediction generated 24 Sep 2026, 20:35 UTC · Fipster Model v1.161
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
No recent fixture data
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
FIFA world ranking
Kučys
Penalty
Emreli
Assist: Mütəllimov
Məmmədov
Yellow Card
Mütəllimov
Yellow Card
Səfərov
Gineitis
Yellow Card
Isaev
Yellow Card
Slivka
Abbasov
Dadashov
Lickūnas
Michelbrink
Dolžnikov
Kučys
Mütəllimov
Xaybulayev
Match Statistics
Lithuania
3-4-3Starting XI
- 2A. TutyškinasD
- 3E. UtkusD
- 7A. DolžnikovF
- 10A. KučysF
- 13J. LasickasM
- 14V. SlivkaF
- 15G. GineitisM
- 16Lukas MichelbrinkM
- 18V. ArmalasD
- 21A. LickūnasM
- 23D. BartkusG
Substitutes
- 1E. GertmonasG
- 4Ž. BaltrūnasD
- 5K. KažukolovasD
- 6M. VorobjovasM
- 8D. ŠlutaM
- 9M. RuzgisF
- 11E. JankauskasF
- 12T. ŠvedkauskasG
- 19I. VenckusF
- 20R. LekiatasD
- 22M. BurbaF
Azerbaijan
5-4-1Starting XI
- 1E. BalayevG
- 2R. DaşdəmirovD
- 3R. AbbasovD
- 4R. MəmmədovD
- 6A. XaybulayevM
- 9R. DadashovF
- 10M. EmreliM
- 13E. SəfərovM
- 15B. HüseynovD
- 19T. MütəllimovD
- 20A. IsaevM
Substitutes
- 5A. KrivotsyukD
- 7T. BayramovD
- 8E. MahmudovM
- 11I. HuseynovM
- 12A. BayramovG
- 14E. BədəlovD
- 17V. İsgəndərliF
- 18C. HüseynovD
- 21R. AbdullazadəM
- 22M. QurbanlıF
- 23R. MirzəmmədovG
Lithuania
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Burba | F | 24 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/3 |
| E. Utkus | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| I. Venckus | F | 13 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Jankauskas | F | 13 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Lasickas | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 2/2 |
| A. Tutyškinas | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| D. Bartkus | G | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Dolžnikov | F | 77 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| V. Armalas | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| V. Slivka | F | 57 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Vorobjovas | M | 24 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| D. Šluta | M | 33 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Lukas Michelbrink | M | 66 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| A. Kučys | F | 77 | 6.2 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | 0/2 |
| G. Gineitis | M | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| A. Lickūnas | M | 66 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| R. Lekiatas | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Kažukolovas | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ž. Baltrūnas | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Švedkauskas | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Ruzgis | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Gertmonas | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Azerbaijan
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Emreli | M | 90 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1/2 |
| A. Xaybulayev | M | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/3 |
| R. Dadashov | F | 60 | 6.8 | — | — | 2 | 2 | — | 0/1 |
| E. Səfərov | M | 46 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Hüseynov | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| M. Qurbanlı | F | 30 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/2 |
| V. İsgəndərli | F | 3 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Abdullazadə | M | 44 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| T. Bayramov | D | 30 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Abbasov | D | 60 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Isaev | M | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| E. Balayev | G | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Daşdəmirov | D | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| T. Mütəllimov | D | 87 | 5.8 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| R. Məmmədov | D | 90 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| A. Krivotsyuk | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Huseynov | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Hüseynov | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Mirzəmmədov | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Bayramov | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Bədəlov | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Mahmudov | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Lithuania vs Azerbaijan?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Lithuania to win against Azerbaijan.
- What score did Fipster predict for Lithuania vs Azerbaijan?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Lithuania 2–1 Azerbaijan.
- What were the win probabilities for Lithuania vs Azerbaijan?
- Fipster's model gave Lithuania a 35% chance of winning, Azerbaijan a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.