Lincoln vs Burnley
Lincoln storms back to thrash Burnley
A stunning four-goal salvo from Lincoln overturns Burnley's early lead.
Burnley looked set for victory after A. Hountondji's strike before the break, but Lincoln responded with a relentless second-half barrage. B. House, M. Ladefoged with a brace, and D. Jefferies all found the net to secure a commanding 4-1 win. This emphatic comeback defied Fipster's high-confidence prediction of a Burnley away win, turning the expected result on its head.
Outcome probability
Burnley head into this fixture with momentum, aiming to extend their scoring streak against Lincoln, who have struggled to find consistency this season.
Match factors
Lincoln missing key midfielders due to suspensions
Lincoln's midfield weakened by confirmed outs including C. McGrandles and T. Hamer due to red cards, reducing creativity and defensive cover
Burnley's attacking form superior to Lincoln's
Burnley has scored in all last 5 matches with multiple players contributing goals, while Lincoln struggles offensively with no top scorers listed
Lucas Pires provides attacking width and set-piece threat
Pires leads Burnley in assists and crossing, likely to exploit Lincoln's defensive vulnerabilities on flanks
Burnley maintains scoring streak away from home
Burnley has scored in all last 5 away games, showing strong offensive momentum heading into this fixture
Lincoln's defensive frailties likely to be exploited
Lincoln concedes 2.4 goals per home game on average, indicating vulnerability against Burnley's attackers
The context
Lincoln currently sit 18th in the league with 11 points from 10 games, while Burnley are 21st with 8 points from 11 matches. Despite their lower position, Burnley have shown a more potent attack recently, scoring in all of their last five games.
Key insights
Mohamed Amdouni
Burnley
Top scorer for Burnley with 3 goals this season, showing strong recent form and likely to be a key threat.
Championship 26/273 goals in 9 apps, 0.33 goals/game
Lucas Pires
Burnley
Leads Burnley in assists with 3 in 7 games, providing attacking width and set-piece threat.
Championship 26/273 assists in 7 apps, 0.43 assists/game
- C
C. McGrandles
Lincoln
Out due to red card suspension, weakening Lincoln's midfield creativity and defensive cover.
Championship 26/27High yellow card rate (0.4 per game) and 1 red card
Analysis
Burnley's attacking form is notably superior, with key players like Mohamed Amdouni leading the charge with 3 goals this season. Lucas Pires provides width and set-piece threat, contributing 3 assists in 7 games. Lincoln's midfield is weakened by suspensions, including the absence of C. McGrandles, which hampers their creativity and defensive stability. Defensively, Lincoln concedes an average of 2.4 goals per home game, a vulnerability Burnley is likely to exploit.
Key facts
- 1.Burnley have a significantly better goal difference (5 goals) than Lincoln this season.
- 2.Lincoln are ranked 18th with 11 points from 10 games (W3 D2 L5).
- 3.Burnley are ranked 21st with 8 points from 11 games (W1 D5 L5).
- 4.Burnley have scored in all of their last 5 matches.
- 5.Lincoln concedes an average of 2.4 goals per home game.
- 6.Mohamed Amdouni is Burnley's top scorer with 3 goals this season.
- 7.Lucas Pires leads Burnley in assists with 3 in 7 games.
- 8.Lincoln's midfield is weakened by suspensions, including C. McGrandles.
Prediction
The forecast strongly favors Burnley to take an early lead, predicted to be 2-0 at halftime, and to maintain their advantage to finish 3-1. The match is expected to feature moderate disciplinary action, with around four cards likely to be shown.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Lincoln
No standout top scorers flagged for Lincoln
Away — Burnley
The verdict
Burnley's consistent scoring and Lincoln's defensive frailties set the stage for a decisive away win. Expect Burnley to control the game and secure all three points comfortably.
Prediction generated 17 Oct 2026, 13:25 UTC · Fipster Model v1.164
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Broja
Hountondji
Assist: Pires
House
Assist: Coubiș
Walker
Ladefoged
Jefferies
Satpaev
Ladefoged
Assist: House
Coudert
Yellow Card
House
Yellow Card
Hatate
Alleyne
Ladefoged
Hackett
Bradley
Edwards
Missed Penalty
Jefferies
McGrandles
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | +10 | 25 |
| 15 |  Bristol City | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 15 |
| 16 |  Lincoln | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 15 |
| 17 |  Cardiff | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | +2 | 14 |
| 21 |  Watford | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -11 | 11 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -8 | 8 |
| 23 |  Derby | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | -11 | 7 |
Match Statistics
Lincoln
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1G. WickensG
- 3A. ReachD
- 4A. CoubișD
- 7R. HackettM
- 11M. LadefogedF
- 14C. McGrandlesM
- 15S. BradleyD
- 16D. JefferiesM
- 18B. HouseM
- 25D. ElereweD
- 26Y. KonakM
Substitutes
- 6R. TowlerD
- 8T. BaylissM
- 17R. StreetF
- 19I. OlaofeF
- 20C. ElderD
- 24I. VarfolomeevM
- 27C. OgbeneF
- 33D. OyegokeD
- 46J. GauciG
Burnley
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 2K. WalkerD
- 3Max AlleyneM
- 5R. HatateM
- 12D. SatpaevM
- 18H. EkdalD
- 19L. RamazaniM
- 23Lucas PiresD
- 27A. BrojaF
- 29J. LaurentM
- 37G. CoudertG
- 44IgorD
Substitutes
- 1M. WeißG
- 8U. RaghouberM
- 10M. EdwardsF
- 14C. RobertsD
- 17A. HountondjiF
- 22O. SonneD
- 30L. CastellF
- 41G. BrierleyM
- 48E. AgyeiF
Lincoln
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Ladefoged | F | 81 | 8.6 | 2 | — | 4 | 2 | 1 | — |
| B. House | M | 90 | 8.2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1/1 |
| D. Jefferies | M | 89 | 8.0 | 1 | — | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0/3 |
| A. Coubiș | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | 1 | — | — | 3 | 0/1 |
| Y. Konak | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| R. Street | F | 9 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| D. Elerewe | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| S. Bradley | D | 81 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Wickens | G | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| C. McGrandles | M | 89 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| A. Reach | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 0/2 |
| C. Ogbene | F | 9 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Hackett | M | 81 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| I. Varfolomeev | M | 1 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| R. Towler | D | 9 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Oyegoke | D | 1 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Olaofe | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Bayliss | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Elder | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Gauci | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Burnley
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Hountondji | F | 77 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| M. Edwards | F | 16 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Max Alleyne | M | 74 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| A. Broja | F | 13 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Roberts | D | 44 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Igor | D | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Walker | D | 46 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| U. Raghouber | M | 16 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Pires | D | 90 | 5.8 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| H. Ekdal | D | 90 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| O. Sonne | D | 31 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| R. Hatate | M | 74 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Satpaev | M | 59 | 5.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| G. Coudert | G | 90 | 5.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Ramazani | M | 90 | 5.3 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 3/5 |
| J. Laurent | M | 90 | 5.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Weiß | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Agyei | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Brierley | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Castell | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Lincoln vs Burnley?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Burnley to win against Lincoln.
- What score did Fipster predict for Lincoln vs Burnley?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Lincoln 1–3 Burnley.
- What were the win probabilities for Lincoln vs Burnley?
- Fipster's model gave Lincoln a 8% chance of winning, Burnley a 83% chance, and a 9% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 83% confidence — a high-confidence call.