Lille vs Le Havre
Lille's early strike secures narrow win
D. Bakwa's fifth-minute goal proves decisive in a tight Ligue 1 encounter.
Lille edged past Le Havre with a solitary goal from D. Bakwa early in the match, holding on to claim a 1-0 victory. Despite Fipster's low-confidence prediction of a more comfortable 4-1 win, the outcome aligned with the forecasted home win, albeit by a much narrower margin.
Outcome probability
Lille and Le Havre face off in the sixth round of the Ligue 1 regular season, with Lille currently sitting comfortably in the upper echelons of the table, while Le Havre struggle near the bottom. This match promises a clear test of Lille's attacking prowess against Le Havre's defensive resilience.
Match factors
Lille's Defensive Solidity and Scoring Streak
Lille has scored in all last 5 games and kept 3 clean sheets in 5, showing strong form
Tiago Santos' Dual Threat as Defender and Scorer
Santos' recent 2 goals and high duel win rate give Lille an edge in defense and attack
Mbwana Samatta Leading Le Havre's Attack
Samatta scored 2 goals in last 5 games, including 2 away goals, key for Le Havre's offense
Lille Missing Key Defender and Attacker
Absence of T. Nianzou (defender) and H. Igamane (attacker) weakens Lille's lineup depth
The context
Lille have enjoyed a strong start to the season, ranking 4th with 10 points from 4 games, boasting a positive goal difference of +5. In contrast, Le Havre find themselves 17th with just 2 points from 5 games and a goal difference of -3. Historically, Lille have dominated this fixture, winning 5 of the 7 meetings between the sides.
Key insights
- T
Tiago Santos
Lille
Santos' recent 2 goals and strong defensive stats give Lille an edge both in defence and attack.
Ligue 1 26/27High defensive rating (7.9, 7.7), 2 goals recently, 65.6% duel win rate
Mbwana Samatta
Le Havre
Samatta leads Le Havre's attack with 2 goals in 5 games, including strong away form.
Ligue 1 26/272 goals in last 5 games, 4 appearances, 338 minutes
Analysis
Lille's recent form and historical head-to-head advantage suggest they will control the game. Their defence, bolstered by Tiago Santos who has scored twice recently and maintains a high duel win rate, provides a solid foundation. Le Havre's main threat comes from Mbwana Samatta, their top scorer with 2 goals this season, but the visitors' overall struggles and Lille's attacking depth make a heavy home win likely. Despite Lille missing key players like T. Nianzou and H. Igamane, their squad depth should compensate.
Key facts
- 1.Lille have won 5 of the last 7 meetings against Le Havre.
- 2.Lille are 4th in Ligue 1 with 10 points from 4 games.
- 3.Le Havre sit 17th with 2 points from 5 games.
- 4.Lille's goal difference (+5) is significantly better than Le Havre's (-3).
- 5.Tiago Santos has scored 2 goals recently and boasts a 65.6% duel win rate.
- 6.Mbwana Samatta is Le Havre's top scorer with 2 goals this season.
- 7.Lille have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 5 games.
Prediction
The forecast is a convincing 4-1 victory for Lille. The home side is expected to take an early lead and maintain dominance throughout, with Le Havre managing a consolation goal. The match should feature around four cards, reflecting a competitive but controlled encounter.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Lille
No standout top scorers flagged for Lille
Away — Le Havre
The verdict
In summary, Lille's superior form, goal difference, and historical record against Le Havre point towards a comfortable home win. While the prediction is made with some caution due to limited recent matchups, the signs strongly favour Lille to deliver a commanding performance.
Prediction generated 20 Sep 2026, 17:12 UTC · Fipster Model v1.160
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Bakwa
Assist: Nianzou
Santos
Perrin
Giroud
Seko
Red Card
Ndiaye
Yellow Card
Nakamura
Maja
Mukau
Perraud
Ouziad
Yellow Card
Richardson
Kjærgaard
Yellow Card
Goffi
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lyon | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +8 | 14 |
| 2 |  Paris Saint Germain | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +5 | 14 |
| 3 |  Lille | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +5 | 14 |
| 4 |  Paris FC | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +4 | 14 |
| 17 |  Estac Troyes | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -11 | 4 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 2 |
Match Statistics
Lille
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1B. ÖzerG
- 4Alexsandro RibeiroD
- 6N. BentalebM
- 7D. BakwaM
- 9O. GiroudF
- 14M. KjærgaardM
- 15R. PerraudD
- 17N. MukauM
- 22Tiago SantosD
- 23T. NianzouD
- 28G. PerrinM
Substitutes
- 10H. HaraldssonM
- 11O. SahraouiF
- 12O. GillG
- 18A. UedaF
- 21B. AndréM
- 24C. VerdonkD
- 26I. CossierD
- 35S. DiaouneF
- 38M. GoffiD
Le Havre
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 5A. ToubaD
- 7A. RichardsonM
- 9J. MajaF
- 14R. NdiayeM
- 15A. SekoD
- 20D. OuziadD
- 25M. SamattaM
- 26S. EbonogM
- 30S. NakamuraM
- 93G. GallonG
Substitutes
- 6J. MwangaM
- 16A. BodartG
- 17K. MizutaM
- 23V. SassoD
- 24G. ZohouriM
- 27E. Koffi VinetteF
- 38R. FofanaF
- 44I. BounebM
- 78D. MosengoM
Lille
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Bakwa | M | 90 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1/3 |
| T. Nianzou | D | 90 | 7.6 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Alexsandro Ribeiro | D | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Haraldsson | M | 33 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| C. Verdonk | D | 17 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| M. Goffi | D | 68 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Perraud | D | 73 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| Tiago Santos | D | 22 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Perrin | M | 57 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| N. Mukau | M | 73 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Özer | G | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O. Sahraoui | F | 17 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| A. Ueda | F | 33 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| O. Giroud | F | 57 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Bentaleb | M | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| M. Kjærgaard | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| O. Gill | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. André | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Cossier | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Diaoune | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Le Havre
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Ndiaye | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 6 | 3/5 |
| S. Ebonog | M | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2/2 |
| A. Touba | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Fofana | F | 21 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Samatta | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 6 | — | — | 0/1 |
| S. Nakamura | M | 69 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| A. Richardson | M | 82 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/4 |
| K. Mizuta | M | 8 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| J. Mwanga | M | 21 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Maja | F | 69 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| D. Ouziad | D | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| G. Gallon | G | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| A. Seko | D | 61 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Bodart | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| V. Sasso | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Koffi Vinette | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Zohouri | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Mosengo | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Bouneb | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Lille vs Le Havre?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Lille to win against Le Havre.
- What score did Fipster predict for Lille vs Le Havre?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Lille 4–1 Le Havre.
- What were the win probabilities for Lille vs Le Havre?
- Fipster's model gave Lille a 35% chance of winning, Le Havre a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.