Lille vs Estac Troyes
Lille secure comfortable win over Troyes
Tiago Santos and E. Mbappé bookend the scoring for a solid home victory
Lille claimed a 2-0 victory against Estac Troyes in Ligue 1, with Tiago Santos opening the scoring in the first half and E. Mbappé sealing the win deep into stoppage time. The result was a controlled performance from Lille, who maintained their advantage throughout. Fipster's prediction of a home win was spot on, though the exact scoreline proved slightly optimistic.
Outcome probability
The new Ligue 1 season kicks off with Lille facing Estac Troyes in what promises to be a clear test of class. Lille, having finished third last season, look to build on their solid foundation, while Estac Troyes enter the top flight eager to make their mark after promotion.
Key facts
- 1.Lille finished 3rd in Ligue 1 last season with 61 points from 34 games.
- 2.Estac Troyes are newly promoted to Ligue 1 this season.
- 3.Lille have a superior goal difference by 15 goals compared to Estac Troyes.
- 4.Lille's points-per-game last season was 1.79; Estac Troyes had none at this level.
- 5.Lille signed B. Önal during the summer transfer window.
- 6.Estac Troyes added P. Beach and D. Karim to their squad this summer.
- 7.Lille lost A. Mandi, A. Bouaddi, and T. Meunier in the off-season.
The context
Lille remain in Ligue 1 after a strong previous campaign, while Estac Troyes are newcomers to this level, stepping up from a lower division. Both sides have made some summer moves: Lille have bolstered their squad with the signing of B. Önal but have also seen the departure of A. Mandi, A. Bouaddi, and T. Meunier. Estac Troyes have added P. Beach and D. Karim to their ranks, aiming to strengthen their squad for the challenges ahead.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Lille
Away — Estac Troyes
Analysis
The statistical outlook heavily favours Lille, who finished third last season with 61 points from 34 games and boast a significantly better goal difference than Estac Troyes. Lille's points-per-game average of 1.79 dwarfs Troyes' zero, reflecting the gulf in experience and quality. The prediction models suggest Lille will take an early lead by halftime and extend their advantage to a 3-0 victory by fulltime, with a moderate number of cards expected in what should be a competitive but controlled encounter.
Prediction
Expect Lille to assert their dominance early, leading 1-0 at halftime before securing a comfortable 3-0 win. The home side's superior quality and experience should see them comfortably outclass the newly promoted visitors, who will find the step up a tough challenge.
The verdict
Lille look set to make a statement in their season opener, using their established Ligue 1 pedigree and summer reinforcements to dispatch Estac Troyes with a convincing 3-0 scoreline. The promoted side will need time to adjust, but for now, Lille are the team to watch.
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Goal cancelled
Santos
Assist: Bakwa
Maronnier
Haraldsson
Bakwa
Ueda
Önal
Diop
Diawara
Picard
Mille
Giroud
Yellow Card
Mukau
Mbappé
Assist: Kjærgaard
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lille | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 10 |
| 2 |  Monaco | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 10 |
| 11 |  Angers | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 12 |  Estac Troyes | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 4 |
| 13 |  Marseille | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
Match Statistics
Lille
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1B. ÖzerG
- 3N. NgoyD
- 4Alexsandro RibeiroD
- 6N. BentalebM
- 7D. BakwaM
- 10H. HaraldssonM
- 15R. PerraudD
- 17N. MukauM
- 18A. UedaF
- 19B. ÖnalM
- 22Tiago SantosD
Substitutes
- 8E. MbappéM
- 9O. GiroudF
- 11O. SahraouiF
- 12O. GillG
- 14M. KjærgaardM
- 21B. AndréM
- 23T. NianzouD
- 24C. VerdonkD
- 28G. PerrinF
Estac Troyes
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 2L. MaronnierD
- 3A. OuzenadjiD
- 4M. DiazD
- 6A. MonfrayD
- 7K. DiawaraM
- 8M. DiopM
- 9J. Le DouaronF
- 17A. MilleM
- 22H. PicardM
- 29D. KarimM
- 33P. BeachG
Substitutes
- 11I. GomisM
- 20R. RipartF
- 23T. NkadaF
- 31Noah DonkorD
- 36I. SoukounaM
- 39Y. KoneF
- 40H. KonatéG
Lille
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiago Santos | D | 90 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | 0/4 |
| E. Mbappé | M | 19 | 8.1 | 1 | — | 3 | 3 | 1 | — |
| Alexsandro Ribeiro | D | 90 | 7.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Kjærgaard | M | 29 | 7.5 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | — |
| N. Ngoy | D | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| D. Bakwa | M | 71 | 7.4 | — | 1 | 2 | — | 2 | 0/4 |
| N. Bentaleb | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 1/3 |
| R. Perraud | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| H. Haraldsson | M | 61 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/3 |
| B. André | M | 4 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| N. Mukau | M | 86 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Önal | M | 71 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/4 |
| G. Perrin | F | 19 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| B. Özer | G | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Ueda | F | 71 | 6.3 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1/3 |
| O. Giroud | F | 19 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| O. Gill | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O. Sahraoui | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Verdonk | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Nianzou | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Estac Troyes
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Diop | M | 75 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| H. Picard | M | 80 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| P. Beach | G | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Monfray | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 3 | — | 2 | — |
| M. Diaz | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Y. Kone | F | 10 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| J. Le Douaron | F | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 1/2 |
| L. Maronnier | D | 46 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| T. Nkada | F | 15 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Mille | M | 80 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| K. Diawara | M | 75 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| D. Karim | M | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/3 |
| I. Gomis | M | 15 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Ripart | F | 10 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Noah Donkor | D | 44 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| A. Ouzenadji | D | 90 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| I. Soukouna | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Konaté | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Lille vs Estac Troyes?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Lille to win against Estac Troyes.
- What score did Fipster predict for Lille vs Estac Troyes?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Lille 3–0 Estac Troyes.
- What were the win probabilities for Lille vs Estac Troyes?
- Fipster's model gave Lille a 95% chance of winning, Estac Troyes a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.