Leeds vs Burnley
Match recap
Leeds beat Burnley 3–1 in their Premier League fixture. Stach, Okafor, and Calvert-Lewin scored for Leeds; Tchaouna replied for Burnley. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.65 for Leeds versus 0.53 for Burnley. Leeds sit 14th in the Premier League table while Burnley are 19th.
Analysis
Leeds welcome Burnley for what promises to be an engaging Premier League encounter. With both teams eager to improve their standings, expect a competitive match at Elland Road.
Historically, Leeds and Burnley share a balanced rivalry with six wins each in 16 meetings. Leeds currently sit 15th with 40 points, while Burnley languish near the bottom at 19th with 20 points. Leeds' superior goal difference and home advantage set the stage for a potential home victory.
Leeds boast a potent attacking trio led by D. Calvert-Lewin, who has netted 11 goals this season and is in fine home form. Midfielder B. Aaronson's creativity, with 5 assists and recent form, adds to Leeds' threat. Defensively, E. Ampadu's tackling prowess offers solidity against Burnley's forwards. Burnley, missing key scorer Z. Flemming due to injury, face an uphill battle to breach Leeds' defence.
Prediction
The forecast is a 2-1 win for Leeds, with a halftime lead of 1-0. The match is expected to feature four cards, reflecting a competitive but controlled game. Confidence in this outcome stands at a robust 95%, supported by statistical trends and player form.
Outcome probability
Key Insights
Leeds' attacking trio in form
Calvert-Lewin and Okafor show strong recent scoring form, likely to exploit Burnley's weak defense
Superior assist and creativity from Aaronson
Aaronson's assist rate and recent form provide Leeds with quality chance creation
Burnley missing key scorer Flemming
Flemming's doubtful status weakens Burnley's attack, reducing their goal threat
Ampadu's defensive dominance
Ampadu's high tackle and interception rates give Leeds defensive solidity against Burnley forwards
Leeds' positive scoring streak at home
Leeds have scored in last 3 home games, supporting predicted 2 goals in this match
Key Takeaways
In summary, Leeds' home advantage, attacking momentum, and defensive resilience make them favourites to edge out Burnley. Expect a closely fought match with Leeds ultimately prevailing 2-1.
- Leeds and Burnley have each won 6 of their 16 meetings, with 4 draws.
- Head-to-head matches average 2.2 goals, aligning with the predicted 3 goals here.
- Leeds rank 15th with 40 points; Burnley are 19th with 20 points.
- Leeds have a superior goal difference (+27) compared to Burnley this season.
- D. Calvert-Lewin leads Leeds with 11 goals, showing strong home form.
- B. Aaronson is Leeds' top assist provider with 5 assists this season.
- Burnley’s top scorer Z. Flemming is doubtful due to injury.
- E. Ampadu is Leeds' defensive leader with 2.4 tackles per game.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Leeds
Away — Burnley
No standout top scorers flagged for Burnley
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Stach
Assist: Bijol
Struijk
Yellow Card
Humphreys
Yellow Card
Tchaouna
Yellow Card
Rodon
Yellow Card
Calvert-Lewin
Yellow Card
Okafor
Assist: Bogle
Laurent
Calvert-Lewin
Ward-Prowse
Hartman
Okafor
Tchaouna
Assist: Anthony
Tanaka
Stach
Ampadu
Yellow Card
Humphreys
Flemming
Mejbri
Yellow Card
Calvert-Lewin
Bogle
Match Statistics
Leeds
3-5-2Starting XI
- 2J. BogleM
- 4E. AmpaduM
- 5P. StruijkD
- 6J. RodonD
- 9D. Calvert-LewinF
- 15J. BijolD
- 18A. StachM
- 19N. OkaforF
- 22A. TanakaM
- 24J. JustinM
- 26K. DarlowG
Substitutes
- 1Lucas PerriG
- 7D. JamesM
- 8S. LongstaffM
- 10J. PiroeF
- 11B. AaronsonM
- 14L. NmechaF
- 23S. BornauwD
- 25S. ByramD
- 29W. GnontoF
Burnley
5-4-1Starting XI
- 1M. DúbravkaG
- 2K. WalkerD
- 3Q. HartmanD
- 5M. EstèveD
- 11J. AnthonyM
- 12B. HumphreysD
- 17L. TchaounaM
- 18H. EkdalD
- 19Z. FlemmingF
- 20J. Ward-ProwseM
- 29J. LaurentM
Substitutes
- 4J. WorrallD
- 8L. UgochukwuM
- 10M. EdwardsF
- 13M. WeißG
- 16FlorentinoM
- 23Lucas PiresD
- 27A. BrojaF
- 28H. MejbriM
Leeds
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anton Stach | M | 72 | 8.0 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1/1 |
| Jayden Bogle | M | 89 | 7.5 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | 1/3 |
| Noah Okafor | F | 65 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0/2 |
| Jaka Bijol | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| James Justin | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Ao Tanaka | M | 72 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Karl Darlow | G | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin | F | 89 | 6.6 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Ethan Ampadu(C) | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Pascal Struijk | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Joe Rodon | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Wilfried Gnonto | F | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Perri | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel James | M | 1 | — | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Sam Byram | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sebastiaan Bornauw | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Joël Piroe | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sean Longstaff | M | 18 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Lukas Nmecha | F | 25 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| Brenden Aaronson | M | 18 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Burnley
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loum Tchaouna | M | 90 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| James Ward-Prowse | M | 65 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Hjalmar Ekdal | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Zian Flemming | F | 76 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Martin Dúbravka | G | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Josh Laurent | M | 54 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2/3 |
| Jaidon Anthony | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Kyle Walker(C) | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Maxime Estève | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Quilindschy Hartman | D | 65 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bashir Humphreys | D | 76 | 5.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Lesley Ugochukwu | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Joe Worrall | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marcus Edwards | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Max Weiss | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Florentino Luís | M | 25 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Hannibal Mejbri | M | 36 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Lucas Pires | D | 25 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Armando Broja | F | 14 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |