Lech Poznan vs Sunderland
Sunderland snatch early lead, Lech Poznan peg back
A 1-1 draw in the Europa League as Sunderland's Timur Tuterov strikes early but Lech Poznan's L. Bengtsson ensures a share of the spoils.
Sunderland shocked the hosts with an early goal from Timur Tuterov in the 2nd minute, setting the tone for a tight contest. Lech Poznan fought back after the break, with L. Bengtsson equalising in the 70th minute to secure a draw. This result defied Fipster's high-confidence prediction of a 3-0 home win, proving the match was far more balanced than expected.
Outcome probability
Lech Poznan face Sunderland in a Group Stage clash where the home side's recent form suggests a comfortable win. With strong attacking displays and solid defence, Lech look poised to take all three points.
Match factors
Lech Poznan's strong recent scoring form
Lech Poznan has scored in all last 4 matches with an average of 4.3 goals per game, indicating high attacking confidence
Lech Poznan's defensive solidity at home
Lech Poznan has kept clean sheets in both recent home games, conceding zero goals, boosting chances of a shutout
No confirmed injuries for either team
Both teams have no confirmed absences, ensuring full squad availability and tactical consistency
Lech Poznan's midfielders outperform league averages
Midfielders like P. Wålemark and D. Håkans exceed league averages in goals and assists, providing creative edge
The context
In this competition, Lech Poznan have been impressive, winning three and drawing one of their four matches so far, scoring 15 goals and conceding just 2. Sunderland, meanwhile, have yet to make a significant impact, making this encounter a crucial test for both sides.
Key insights
- P
P. Wålemark
Lech Poznan
P. Wålemark has scored multiple goals recently including braces at home and away, making him a key figure in Lech's attacking momentum.
UEFA Europa League 26/27Above average goal contribution compared to league midfielder averages
- D
D. Håkans
Lech Poznan
D. Håkans is active in offensive plays and goal creation, contributing both goals and assists recently.
UEFA Europa League 26/27Above average attacking midfielder contribution
Analysis
Lech Poznan's attacking prowess is evident, averaging over four goals per game in recent matches. Their midfielders, including P. Wålemark and D. Håkans, outperform league averages in goals and assists, providing a creative edge. Defensively, Lech have kept clean sheets in recent home games, suggesting Sunderland will struggle to find the net. Sunderland's lack of recent cup success and the absence of standout performers in this fixture further tip the scales in Lech's favour.
Key facts
- 1.Lech Poznan have won 3 and drawn 1 of 4 matches in this competition, scoring 15 goals and conceding 2.
- 2.Lech Poznan have kept clean sheets in both recent home games.
- 3.Midfielders P. Wålemark and D. Håkans exceed league averages in goals and assists.
- 4.No confirmed injuries for either team, ensuring full squad availability.
- 5.Aggregated home win probability stands at 90% with 3-0 as the most likely scoreline.
- 6.Modal halftime score is 1-0, consistent with a strong home lead early on.
- 7.Expected total cards in the match is 4, indicating a moderately physical game.
Prediction
The prediction is a 3-0 victory for Lech Poznan, with a halftime lead of 1-0. The home side's strong form and attacking momentum should see them dominate early and maintain control, while Sunderland will find it difficult to breach Lech's solid defence. Expect a total of around four cards, reflecting a competitive but controlled match.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Lech Poznan
Away — Sunderland
The verdict
All signs point to a comfortable win for Lech Poznan as they continue their strong run in this competition. Sunderland will need to regroup quickly after this one if they hope to turn their fortunes around.
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Tuterov
Assist: Angulo
Danso
Yellow Card
Rodríguez
Håkans
Xhaka
Mukiele
Angulo
Diarra
Bengtsson
Wålemark
Murawski
Tuterov
Ishak
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sparta Praha | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 8 |  Omonia Nicosia | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 9 |  Sunderland | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 10 |  Dinamo Zagreb | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 19 |  Juventus | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 |  Lech Poznan | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Match Statistics
Lech Poznan
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1M. LisG
- 2Joel PereiraD
- 9M. IshakF
- 10P. WålemarkM
- 11D. HåkansM
- 15M. GurgulD
- 21Pablo RodríguezM
- 22R. MurawskiM
- 43A. KozubalM
- 59T. YegbeD
- 72M. SkrzypczakD
Substitutes
- 5G. BerggrenM
- 7Y. AgneroF
- 14L. BengtssonM
- 24F. JagiełłoM
- 31Wiktor ObremskiG
- 33M. PruchniewskiG
- 56W. SzymczakF
- 77L. PalmaM
- 90H. JanyszkaD
Sunderland
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 4K. DansoD
- 6D. MethalieD
- 10N. AnguloM
- 13L. O'NienD
- 19H. DiarraM
- 20N. MukieleD
- 22R. RoefsG
- 29Jules AhokaM
- 34G. XhakaM
- 39M. FofanaM
- 57Timur TuterovF
Substitutes
- 11C. RiggM
- 15O. AldereteD
- 17ReinildoD
- 21S. MooreG
- 27N. SadikiM
- 28E. Le FéeM
- 32T. HumeD
- 40J. WhittakerM
- 47T. OgunsuyiF
- 48Jenson JonesD
- 49F. ScottF
- 77T. ProctorM
Lech Poznan
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Lis | G | 90 | 8.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Bengtsson | M | 28 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| P. Wålemark | M | 82 | 7.0 | — | — | 5 | 2 | 5 | 0/4 |
| M. Skrzypczak | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| T. Yegbe | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Joel Pereira | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Pablo Rodríguez | M | 62 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 3 | 1/3 |
| L. Palma | M | 28 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Y. Agnero | F | 7 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Murawski | M | 83 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| M. Ishak | F | 87 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| D. Håkans | M | 62 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| F. Jagiełło | M | 3 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Gurgul | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| A. Kozubal | M | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| G. Berggren | M | 8 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Pruchniewski | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wiktor Obremski | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Janyszka | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| W. Szymczak | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Sunderland
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timur Tuterov | F | 85 | 8.1 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1/1 |
| N. Angulo | M | 63 | 7.7 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2/4 |
| R. Roefs | G | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. O'Nien | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| E. Le Fée | M | 27 | 7.0 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2/3 |
| N. Mukiele | D | 63 | 7.0 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 2 | — |
| N. Sadiki | M | 27 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Xhaka | M | 63 | 6.8 | — | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | — |
| T. Hume | D | 27 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Jules Ahoka | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Reinildo | D | 5 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| D. Methalie | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 1/3 |
| H. Diarra | M | 63 | 6.5 | — | — | 4 | 2 | 1 | — |
| K. Danso | D | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| C. Rigg | M | 27 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| M. Fofana | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1/1 |
| S. Moore | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Whittaker | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O. Alderete | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jenson Jones | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Ogunsuyi | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Scott | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Proctor | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Lech Poznan vs Sunderland?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Lech Poznan to win against Sunderland.
- What score did Fipster predict for Lech Poznan vs Sunderland?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Lech Poznan 3–0 Sunderland.
- What were the win probabilities for Lech Poznan vs Sunderland?
- Fipster's model gave Lech Poznan a 95% chance of winning, Sunderland a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.