Lech Poznan vs Aarhus
Aarhus storm past Lech Poznan in penalty shootout
Aarhus's clinical finishing and nerve in the shootout sealed a stunning 4-1 victory after extra time.
Aarhus took control with early goals from T. Bech and K. Arnstad, extending their lead with F. Tingager and T. Kristjánsson after the break. Despite F. Jagiełło's efforts to pull Lech Poznan back during extra time, Aarhus held firm and dominated the penalty shootout, converting four penalties while Lech missed several crucial spot-kicks. This emphatic 4-1 win on penalties defied Fipster's prediction of a narrow home victory, delivering a memorable upset in the UEFA Champions League clash.
- First leg:
- Aarhus 1 4 Lech Poznan
- Aggregate:
- Lech Poznan 4 4 Aarhus (pens)
- Advances:
- Aarhus
Analysis
The upcoming 2nd Qualifying Round clash between Lech Poznan and Aarhus promises a competitive encounter. Both sides have already faced off once in this competition, with Lech Poznan coming out on top 4-1. This match could be a tight affair, but the home side looks set to continue their winning ways.
Lech Poznan have played one match in this competition so far, winning it convincingly with a 4-1 scoreline against Aarhus. Aarhus, on the other hand, have yet to find their footing, having lost their opening match 4-1. This fixture is a chance for Aarhus to bounce back, but Lech Poznan’s recent dominance in this tie gives them the edge.
Lech Poznan’s midfield duo, particularly Patrik Wålemark and Antoni Kozubal, have shown excellent attacking and creative form, controlling play effectively in the previous meeting. Wålemark’s two goals and high match rating highlight his influence. Aarhus will rely on Kristian Arnstad and Frederik Emmery to spark their attack, but Lech’s superior scoring form and home advantage suggest they will have the upper hand.
Prediction
The prediction leans towards a home win for Lech Poznan with a 2-1 scoreline. The aggregated probabilities favour a home victory at 40.7%, with the 2-1 result being the most likely exact score. Confidence in this outcome is moderate at 35%, reflecting a reasonable certainty that Lech Poznan will edge out Aarhus in this encounter.
Outcome probability
Match factors
Lech Poznan's Midfield Dominance
Lech's midfielders Wålemark and Kozubal showed strong attacking and creative form against Aarhus last match, likely to control play again
Lech Poznan's Superior Scoring Form
Lech scored 4 goals in last away match vs Aarhus, showing strong offensive capability compared to Aarhus' 1 goal
Wålemark's High Impact Performance
Patrik Wålemark's 2 goals and 8.9 rating in last match indicate excellent form and confidence
Full Squad Availability
No confirmed injuries for either team ensures all key players are available, maintaining team strength
Key Takeaways
In summary, Lech Poznan’s recent form, key player performances, and home advantage make them favourites to win this tie narrowly. Aarhus will provide a challenge, but the prediction suggests Lech will maintain their upper hand and progress with a 2-1 victory.
- Lech Poznan won the only previous meeting 4-1.
- Lech Poznan have a 1-0 record in this competition so far with 4 goals scored.
- Aarhus have lost their only match in this competition 4-1.
- Home win aggregate probability is 40.7%, higher than draw (29.1%) and away win (21.7%).
- Patrik Wålemark scored 2 goals in the last match against Aarhus and is in excellent form.
- Antoni Kozubal provided an assist in the last match, showing creative midfield strength.
- No confirmed injuries for either team, so full squads are expected.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Lech Poznan
Away — Aarhus
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Bech
Kozubal
Yellow Card
Bogere
Yellow Card
Goal
Penalty
Jensen-Abbew
Palma
Bogere
Jønsson
Tingager
Assist: Kahl
Gumny
Rodríguez
Anderson
Yellow Card
Wålemark
Ishak
Kahl
Emmery
Yellow Card
Jagiełło
Emmery
Anderson
Murawski
Kristjánsson
Assist: Bech
Agnero
Yellow Card
Camara
Yellow Card
Goal
Missed Penalty
Jagiełło
Penalty
Tingager
Penalty
Sayyadmanesh
Missed Penalty
Kristjánsson
Penalty
Kozubal
Missed Penalty
Serra
Penalty
Agnero
Penalty
Bech
Penalty
Pereira
Penalty
Match Statistics
Lech Poznan
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1M. LisG
- 9M. IshakF
- 10P. WålemarkM
- 15M. GurgulD
- 20R. GumnyD
- 21Pablo RodríguezM
- 22R. MurawskiM
- 27W. MońkaD
- 43A. KozubalM
- 59T. YegbeD
- 77L. PalmaM
Substitutes
- 2Joel PereiraD
- 4João MoutinhoD
- 7Y. AgneroF
- 11D. HåkansM
- 17A. SayyadmaneshM
- 23G. ÞórðarsonM
- 24F. JagiełłoM
- 35M. PruchniewskiG
- 41B. MrozekG
- 72M. SkrzypczakD
- 90H. JanyszkaD
Aarhus
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 4M. KnudsenM
- 5F. TingagerD
- 10Kristian Fredrik Malt ArnstadF
- 16J. JønssonM
- 19E. KahlD
- 21M. Hedenstad ChristiansenG
- 23M. AndersonM
- 28J. BogereF
- 31T. BechF
- 39Frederik EmmeryM
- 40J. Jensen-AbbewD
Substitutes
- 8S. JørgensenM
- 13J. SerraF
- 20T. KristjánssonF
- 22Oskar HaugstrupM
- 27S. TchamcheF
- 29R. CarstensenD
- 42M. van der RaadG
- 43Z. GrantzauD
- 44Mouhammade CamaraD
- 45Christian StorchD
Lech Poznan
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrik Wålemark | M | 87 | 7.9 | — | — | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1/3 |
| Radosław Murawski | M | 98 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pablo Rodríguez | M | 81 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| Mikael Ishak(C) | F | 88 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Antoni Kozubal | M | 120 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Luis Palma | M | 68 | 6.3 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Michal Gurgul | D | 120 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2/2 |
| Wojciech Mońka | D | 120 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Robert Gumny | D | 81 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Terry Yegbe | D | 120 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mateusz Lis | G | 120 | 5.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Mateusz Pruchniewski | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Moutinho | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bartosz Mrozek | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hubert Janyszka | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mateusz Skrzypczak | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Filip Jagiełło | M | 39 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 3/3 |
| Allahyar Sayyadmanesh | M | 52 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Joel Pereira | D | 39 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Daniel Håkans | M | 33 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 0/2 |
| Yannick Agnero | F | 32 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Gisli Thordarson | M | 22 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
Aarhus
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frederik Tingager | D | 120 | 8.9 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Mads Hedenstad | G | 120 | 8.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tobias Bech | F | 120 | 7.9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0/1 |
| Eric Kahl | D | 89 | 7.9 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | — |
| Kristian Arnstad(C) | F | 120 | 7.2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0/1 |
| Frederik Emmery | M | 97 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3/4 |
| Magnus Knudsen | M | 120 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Jens Jønsson | M | 70 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/2 |
| Jonas Jensen-Abbew | D | 60 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mikael Anderson | M | 97 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/2 |
| James Bogere | F | 70 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Marius van der Raad | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Zander Grantzau | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Oskar Haugstrup | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sebastian Jørgensen | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tómas Óli Kristjánsson | F | 23 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Rasmus Carstensen | D | 50 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2/2 |
| Janni Serra | F | 23 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mouhammade Camara | D | 31 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stefen Tchamche | F | 50 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Christian Storch | D | 60 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |