Lecce vs Genoa
Genoa sneak past Lecce in Serie A clash
Osmajić and Messias strike early to secure a narrow away win.
Genoa took an early grip on the match with goals from M. Osmajić and Junior Messias in the first half, setting the tone before Y. Maleh pulled one back for Lecce. Despite Lecce's efforts, Genoa held on for a 2-1 victory that defied Fipster's medium-confidence prediction of a home win. The visitors' early strikes proved decisive in this tightly contested Serie A encounter.
Outcome probability
Lecce and Genoa face off in what promises to be a competitive Serie A encounter. Both teams sit close in the league standings, making this a crucial match for momentum and points.
Match factors
Lecce's Defensive Weakness Due to Suspension
Key defender Kialonda Gaspar is out due to red card, weakening Lecce's backline
Osmajić Leading Genoa's Attack
Milutin Osmajić leads Genoa with 3 goals in 7 games, key scoring threat
Lorenzo Colombo's Creative Influence
Colombo's 2 assists in 6 games make him a primary playmaker for Genoa
Danilo Veiga's Consistent Defensive Performance
Veiga shows above-average defensive stats and full match involvement for Lecce
The context
Genoa hold a superior head-to-head record with seven wins from 13 meetings against Lecce, who have managed just one victory. The teams are neck and neck in the league table, with Genoa 13th on 10 points and Lecce 14th on 9 points, reflecting similar recent form.
Key insights
Milutin Osmajić
Genoa
Osmajić leads Genoa's attack with 3 goals in 7 games, making him their key scoring threat.
Serie A 26/273 goals in 7 appearances, 0.43 goals/game
Lorenzo Colombo
Genoa
Colombo is the primary playmaker with 2 assists in 6 games, crucial for Genoa's creativity.
Serie A 26/272 assists in 6 appearances, 0.33 assists/game
- D
Danilo Veiga
Lecce
Veiga provides consistent defensive performances with above-average passing and tackling stats.
Serie A 26/2777% passing accuracy, 3.14 tackles per game
Analysis
The match is expected to be moderately high-scoring, with an average of 2.8 goals in their past encounters. Lecce will be without key defender Kialonda Gaspar due to suspension, which could weaken their backline. However, Danilo Veiga's consistent defensive performances may help shore up their defence. Genoa's attack is spearheaded by Milutin Osmajić, who has netted three goals in seven games and is in good form. Lorenzo Colombo's creativity with two assists in six games adds to Genoa's threat. Despite Genoa's historical edge, Lecce's home advantage and recent form suggest they can secure a narrow win.
Key facts
- 1.Genoa lead head-to-head with 7 wins to Lecce's 1 in 13 matches.
- 2.Lecce are 14th in the league with 9 points from 8 games.
- 3.Genoa sit 13th with 10 points from 9 games.
- 4.Head-to-head matches average 2.8 goals, indicating a moderately high-scoring game.
- 5.Lecce's key defender Kialonda Gaspar is suspended, weakening their defence.
- 6.Milutin Osmajić is Genoa's top scorer with 3 goals in 7 games.
- 7.Lorenzo Colombo leads Genoa's assists with 2 in 6 games.
- 8.Danilo Veiga shows strong defensive stats and full match involvement for Lecce.
Prediction
We predict Lecce to take a 1-0 lead into halftime and hold on to win 2-1 by fulltime. The home win outcome is the most probable, with a medium level of confidence in this result. Expect a competitive match with a few cards, likely around three in total.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Lecce
No standout top scorers flagged for Lecce
Away — Genoa
The verdict
This fixture should provide an entertaining contest with Lecce just edging out Genoa. Keep an eye on Osmajić for Genoa and Veiga for Lecce, as their performances could be decisive. A tight 2-1 scoreline looks the most likely outcome.
Prediction generated 29 Oct 2026, 19:30 UTC · Fipster Model v1.166
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Osmajić
Assist: Junior Messias
Junior Messias
Assist: El Shaarawy
Maleh
Goal cancelled
Gorter
Monteiro
Kaba
Yellow Card
El Shaarawy
Wiafe
Traorè
Yellow Card
Siebert
Yellow Card
Štulić
N’Dri
Maleh
Traorè
Junior Messias
Osmajić
Yellow Card
Match Statistics
Lecce
4-3-3Starting XI
- 5J. SiebertD
- 9N. ŠtulićF
- 11K. N’DriF
- 14Y. MalehM
- 17Danilo VeigaD
- 25A. GalloD
- 28Olaf GorterM
- 30W. FalconeG
- 44Tiago GabrielD
- 79O. NgomM
- 99Joël MonteiroF
Substitutes
- 1M. BleveG
- 2A. DembéléD
- 3C. NdabaD
- 7A. Ahmed FatahF
- 8S. FofanaM
- 16O. GandelmanM
- 18G. JeanD
- 22Paco EstebanF
- 31E. ScottD
- 32A. BorbeiG
- 77M. KabaM
Genoa
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 1J. BijlowG
- 5L. ØstigårdD
- 10Junior MessiasM
- 18M. OsmajićF
- 22J. VásquezD
- 25H. TraorèM
- 27A. MarcandalliD
- 32M. FrendrupM
- 71S. WiafeM
- 77M. EllertssonM
- 92S. El ShaarawyM
Substitutes
- 2M. MitajD
- 3K. EhizibueD
- 4Alexsandro AmorimM
- 8T. BaldanziM
- 9VítinhaF
- 11E. MeichtryM
- 16C. DramehD
- 20S. SabelliD
- 29L. ColomboF
- 31D. PuczkaD
- 34S. OtoaD
- 39D. SommarivaG
- 97D. SowM
- 99F. StolzG
Lecce
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y. Maleh | M | 75 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| A. Gallo | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 6 | — |
| Joël Monteiro | F | 59 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1/3 |
| Tiago Gabriel | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Štulić | F | 75 | 6.5 | — | — | 4 | 2 | — | — |
| Olaf Gorter | M | 56 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| O. Ngom | M | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| J. Siebert | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Ahmed Fatah | F | 31 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 1/2 |
| A. Dembélé | D | 15 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Paco Esteban | F | 15 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| O. Gandelman | M | 15 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Kaba | M | 34 | 5.8 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| W. Falcone | G | 90 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. N’Dri | F | 75 | 5.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 2/12 |
| Danilo Veiga | D | 90 | 5.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Ndaba | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Fofana | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Scott | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Jean | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Bleve | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Borbei | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Genoa
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Junior Messias | M | 86 | 9.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4/6 |
| J. Bijlow | G | 90 | 7.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Osmajić | F | 86 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| S. El Shaarawy | M | 60 | 7.5 | — | 1 | 3 | — | 2 | 3/6 |
| Vítinha | F | 30 | 6.8 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| L. Østigård | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Vásquez | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| H. Traorè | M | 80 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 0/1 |
| L. Colombo | F | 4 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| K. Ehizibue | D | 30 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Marcandalli | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Sow | M | 10 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Meichtry | M | 4 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| M. Ellertsson | M | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| M. Frendrup | M | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| S. Wiafe | M | 60 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| T. Baldanzi | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Sommariva | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Sabelli | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alexsandro Amorim | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Stolz | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Otoa | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Puczka | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Mitaj | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Drameh | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Lecce vs Genoa?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Lecce to win against Genoa.
- What score did Fipster predict for Lecce vs Genoa?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Lecce 2–1 Genoa.
- What were the win probabilities for Lecce vs Genoa?
- Fipster's model gave Lecce a 49% chance of winning, Genoa a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 49% confidence — a medium-confidence call.