Lecce vs Fiorentina
Match recap
Lecce and Fiorentina drew 1–1 in their Serie A fixture. Tiago Gabriel scored for Lecce; Harrison replied for Fiorentina. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.26 for Lecce versus 1.14 for Fiorentina. Lecce sit 17th in the Serie A table while Fiorentina are 15th.
Analysis
Lecce host Fiorentina in what promises to be a closely contested Serie A fixture. Both teams have shown resilience this season, and the stats suggest a match where neither side will dominate.
Historically, Lecce and Fiorentina have met 13 times with an even split of five wins each and three draws, highlighting the competitive nature of this fixture. Currently, Lecce sit 18th with 28 points, while Fiorentina are 15th with 36 points, both fighting to improve their standings.
Lecce's defensive strength largely depends on Tiago Gabriel, whose impressive duel win rate and passing accuracy provide stability. However, the absence of top assist provider Antonino Gallo due to injury may hamper their creativity. Fiorentina's Jack Harrison offers a creative spark with a high assist rate, but missing key midfielders Mandragora and Kean could blunt their attacking edge. Both teams have moderate discipline records, with an expected total of four cards.
Prediction
The most probable outcome is a 1-1 draw, consistent with the halftime scoreline of 0-1. The match is expected to be balanced, with both sides finding the net once. The predicted total of four cards suggests a moderately physical game without excessive discipline issues.
Outcome probability
Key Insights
Lecce's Defensive Solidity Hinges on Tiago Gabriel
Tiago Gabriel's high duel win rate and passing accuracy provide defensive stability and occasional goals.
Absence of Antonino Gallo Weakens Lecce's Creativity
Gallo leads Lecce in assists but is injured, reducing attacking supply to forwards.
Fiorentina's Jack Harrison Offers Creative Spark
Harrison's assist rate is well above league average, enhancing Fiorentina's attacking threat.
Lecce's Top Scorers Lack Recent Goals
Key forwards like Štulić and Coulibaly have not scored in last 5 games, limiting scoring confidence.
Fiorentina Missing Key Midfielders Mandragora and Kean
Mandragora and Kean's absences reduce Fiorentina's goal and assist potential, impacting attack.
Key Takeaways
In summary, Lecce and Fiorentina are likely to share the spoils in a 1-1 draw. Key player absences and balanced historical records point to a tight match where neither side can claim full dominance, making for an entertaining but evenly matched contest.
- Lecce and Fiorentina have an equal head-to-head record with 5 wins each and 3 draws in 13 meetings.
- The average goals per head-to-head match is 2.3, with Lecce scoring 12 and Fiorentina 18 overall.
- Lecce are currently 18th in the league with 28 points from 33 games (7 wins, 7 draws, 19 losses).
- Fiorentina sit 15th with 36 points from 33 games (8 wins, 12 draws, 13 losses).
- The modal fulltime scoreline prediction is 1-1 with a 21.5% probability.
- The expected total number of cards in the match is 4, indicating moderate discipline.
- Halftime score prediction is 0-1, consistent with the fulltime draw outcome.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Lecce
Away — Fiorentina
No standout top scorers flagged for Fiorentina
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Gosens
Harrison
Assist: Mandragora
N’Dri
Ngom
Cheddira
Guðmundsson
Pierotti
Yellow Card
Tiago Gabriel
Assist: Gallo
Tiago Gabriel
Yellow Card
de Gea
Yellow Card
Pongračić
Yellow Card
Ndour
Fagioli
Harrison
Fazzini
Yellow Card
Gallo
Solomon
Yellow Card
Match Statistics
Lecce
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 5J. SiebertD
- 11K. N’DriM
- 17Danilo VeigaD
- 20Y. RamadaniM
- 25A. GalloD
- 29L. CoulibalyM
- 30W. FalconeG
- 44Tiago GabrielD
- 50S. PierottiM
- 79O. NgomM
- 99W. CheddiraF
Substitutes
- 1C. FrüchtlG
- 3C. NdabaD
- 6Álex SalaM
- 9N. ŠtulićF
- 13M. PérezD
- 14Þ. HelgasonM
- 16O. GandelmanM
- 18G. JeanD
- 19L. BandaM
- 28Olaf GorterM
- 32J. SamoojaG
- 36F. MarchwińskiM
- 80N. Kovač M
Fiorentina
4-3-3Starting XI
- 2DodôD
- 5M. PongračićD
- 6L. RanieriD
- 8R. MandragoraM
- 10A. GuðmundssonF
- 17J. HarrisonF
- 21R. GosensD
- 27C. NdourM
- 43David de GeaG
- 44N. FagioliM
- 91R. PiccoliF
Substitutes
- 1L. LezzeriniG
- 3D. RuganiD
- 4M. BrescianiniM
- 15P. ComuzzoD
- 19M. SolomonF
- 22J. FazziniM
- 23E. KošpoD
- 53O. ChristensenG
- 60E. KouadioD
- 61R. BraschiF
- 62L. BalboD
- 69G. PuzzoliF
- 80G. FabbianM
Lecce
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ylber Ramadani | M | 90 | 8.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2/2 |
| Tiago Gabriel | D | 90 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Danilo Veiga | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/3 |
| Oumar Ngom | M | 57 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Antonino Gallo | D | 85 | 7.0 | — | 1 | — | — | 4 | 2/4 |
| Konan N'Dri | M | 56 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/3 |
| Lassana Coulibaly | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Santiago Pierotti | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 5/5 |
| Walid Cheddira | F | 57 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Wladimiro Falcone(C) | G | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jamil Siebert | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Matías Pérez | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Olaf Gorter | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Niko Kovač | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alex Sala | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jasper Samooja | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Filip Marchwiński | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Þórir Jóhann Helgason | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gaby Jean | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Christian Früchtl | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lameck Banda | M | 34 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Omri Gandelman | M | 33 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Corrie Ndaba | D | 10 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nikola Štulić | F | 33 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
Fiorentina
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolò Fagioli | M | 80 | 7.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Dodô | D | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/2 |
| Jack Harrison | F | 80 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/6 |
| Marin Pongračić | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luca Ranieri | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rolando Mandragora | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | — |
| Robin Gosens | D | 11 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| David De Gea(C) | G | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Albert Guðmundsson | F | 60 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Roberto Piccoli | F | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Cher Ndour | M | 80 | 5.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Riccardo Braschi | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Eddy Kouadio | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Giorgio Puzzoli | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pietro Comuzzo | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Eman Košpo | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Oliver Christensen | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Daniele Rugani | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luca Lezzerini | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Giovanni Fabbian | M | 10 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Marco Brescianini | M | 10 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jacopo Fazzini | M | 10 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luís Balbo | D | 79 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Manor Solomon | F | 30 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |