Le Mans vs Toulouse
Toulouse cruise to comfortable win at Le Mans
A commanding 3-0 victory sees Toulouse dominate after the break.
Toulouse put on a clinical display at Le Mans, with J. Russell-Rowe opening the scoring just after the break, followed by A. Dønnum and C. Tengstedt sealing the win. The 3-0 scoreline was a clear statement of dominance, defying Fipster's high-confidence prediction of a 4-3 home win. Instead of the expected goal-fest, Toulouse kept a clean sheet and controlled the match throughout the second half.
Outcome probability
Le Mans and Toulouse are gearing up for a high-scoring encounter in the seventh round of the regular season. Both sides have shown attacking intent but also defensive vulnerabilities, promising an entertaining spectacle for the neutral fan.
Match factors
Le Mans missing key midfield and defensive players
Le Mans has 6 confirmed outs including key midfielder A. Bourabaa (out) and defender D. Sidibé (out), weakening midfield creativity and defense.
Le Mans strong scoring streak but defensive frailty
Le Mans scored in all last 5 matches but conceded in all, indicating an open game likely to produce multiple goals.
Toulouse midfield creativity led by Cásseres
C. Cásseres shows high assist numbers and key passes, driving Toulouse's attacking play and chance creation.
Le Mans attacking threat from Mafouta and Bourabaa
L. Mafouta and A. Bourabaa combine goal scoring and assisting roles, posing a dual threat to Toulouse's defense.
Toulouse's attacking trio in good form
Tengstedt, Jørgensen, and Cásseres have recent goals and assists, suggesting effective offensive synergy.
The context
Le Mans currently sit 10th in the league with 6 points from 5 games, showing moderate form. Toulouse are just a few places below in 14th with 5 points, indicating a slightly weaker run so far. Both teams have been involved in matches with goals at both ends, setting the stage for an open contest.
Key insights
- A
A. Bourabaa
Le Mans
Le Mans will miss key midfielder A. Bourabaa, who is out with injury, weakening their midfield creativity.
Ligue 1 26/27High recent ratings with multiple goals and assists for Le Mans.
- L
L. Mafouta
Le Mans
L. Mafouta is Le Mans' primary attacking threat, consistently scoring and assisting in recent matches.
Ligue 1 26/27Multiple goals and high match ratings this season.
- C
C. Cásseres
Toulouse
C. Cásseres drives Toulouse's attacking play with high assist numbers and key passes.
Ligue 1 26/27High assist numbers and excellent recent match ratings.
Analysis
Le Mans have been scoring in every match this season but have also conceded in all, highlighting their attacking prowess and defensive frailty. Key players like L. Mafouta have been consistent goal threats, although Le Mans will miss influential midfielder A. Bourabaa due to injury, which could affect their creativity. Toulouse, meanwhile, rely heavily on the midfield creativity of C. Cásseres and the attacking contributions of Tengstedt and Jørgensen. The match is expected to be a back-and-forth affair with both sides pushing forward, which aligns with the predicted 4-3 scoreline.
Key facts
- 1.Le Mans are 10th in the league with 6 points from 5 games (W1 D3 L1).
- 2.Toulouse sit 14th with 5 points from 5 games (W1 D2 L2).
- 3.Le Mans have scored in all of their last 5 matches but have also conceded in each.
- 4.Toulouse's C. Cásseres leads their midfield creativity with high assist numbers.
- 5.Le Mans will miss key midfielder A. Bourabaa due to injury.
- 6.The predicted halftime score is 2-1 in favour of Le Mans.
- 7.The match is expected to feature around 4 cards, indicating a physical contest.
Prediction
The prediction favours a home win for Le Mans with a thrilling 4-3 scoreline. The halftime score is expected to be 2-1, reflecting an early offensive burst from both teams. The match is also likely to see around four cards, suggesting a competitive and physical encounter.
The verdict
Expect a rollercoaster of a match with plenty of goals and attacking football. Le Mans' home advantage and slightly better form should see them edge out Toulouse in a seven-goal thriller. Fans should prepare for an entertaining evening of football with end-to-end action.
Prediction generated 10 Oct 2026, 20:45 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Russell-Rowe
Assist: Dønnum
Russell-Rowe
Yellow Card
Dønnum
Guèye
Traoré
Larouci
Dønnum
Buadés
Russell-Rowe
Voyer
Goal cancelled
Nicolaisen
Tengstedt
Assist: Cásseres
Sidibé
Yellow Card
Yohou
Yellow Card
Match Statistics
Le Mans
3-1-4-2Starting XI
- 5H. VoyerD
- 10J. VercruysseM
- 14L. MafoutaF
- 17S. YohouD
- 18L. BuadésM
- 19D. SidibéD
- 23D. TraoréM
- 25D. GuèyeF
- 29L. BretelleM
- 76Y. LarouciM
- 98N. KocikG
Substitutes
- 1E. HatfoutG
- 7B. BrahimiF
- 8A. LaurayM
- 9A. RabillardF
- 13H. DialloF
- 15N. BoisséD
- 20W. HarhouzF
- 22L. CalodatD
- 26R. BambaD
Toulouse
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 2R. NicolaisenD
- 3M. McKenzieD
- 8T. JørgensenM
- 12C. TapéD
- 13J. Russell-RoweF
- 14N. SigurM
- 15A. DønnumM
- 16G. RestesG
- 20C. TengstedtM
- 22R. MessaliD
- 23C. CásseresM
Substitutes
- 1T. CollinG
- 5S. KoumbassaD
- 6A. VossahM
- 7Julián VignoloF
- 9S. HidalgoF
- 18M. AmougouM
- 19D. OdoguD
- 31N. SchmidtM
- 94I. DialloD
Le Mans
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Guèye | F | 61 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| L. Bretelle | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| J. Vercruysse | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| L. Calodat | D | 29 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| B. Brahimi | F | 29 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| H. Voyer | D | 77 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Sidibé | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| D. Traoré | M | 61 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| N. Boissé | D | 13 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Diallo | F | 29 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| R. Bamba | D | 21 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| L. Buadés | M | 69 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| S. Yohou | D | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| L. Mafouta | F | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Y. Larouci | M | 61 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| N. Kocik | G | 90 | 5.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Lauray | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Hatfout | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Rabillard | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| W. Harhouz | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Toulouse
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Dønnum | M | 64 | 9.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | — |
| C. Tengstedt | M | 90 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 6 | 2 | — | 1/2 |
| J. Russell-Rowe | F | 76 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | — | — |
| C. Cásseres | M | 90 | 7.7 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 3 | 2/4 |
| M. McKenzie | D | 90 | 7.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Messali | D | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| R. Nicolaisen | D | 85 | 7.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Tapé | D | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| N. Sigur | M | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| S. Koumbassa | D | 5 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Vossah | M | 26 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| G. Restes | G | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Jørgensen | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Julián Vignolo | F | 14 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| M. Amougou | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Odogu | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Hidalgo | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Schmidt | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Diallo | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Collin | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Le Mans vs Toulouse?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Le Mans to win against Toulouse.
- What score did Fipster predict for Le Mans vs Toulouse?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Le Mans 4–3 Toulouse.
- What were the win probabilities for Le Mans vs Toulouse?
- Fipster's model gave Le Mans a 95% chance of winning, Toulouse a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.