Le Havre vs Auxerre
Auxerre's Namaso double downs Le Havre
A commanding 3-1 victory for Auxerre, powered by Namaso's brace, overturns expectations.
Auxerre secured a confident 3-1 win at Le Havre, with D. Namaso striking twice before the hour mark to set the tone. Despite a reply from R. Fofana for Le Havre, R. Faivre sealed the result late on for the visitors. This outcome defied Fipster's medium-confidence prediction of a home win, proving Auxerre's firepower too strong on the day.
Outcome probability
Le Havre and Auxerre face off in a Ligue 1 regular season match where both sides are eager to climb the table. With Le Havre sitting 18th and Auxerre 15th, this encounter promises a tight contest with a late flurry of goals expected.
Match factors
Le Havre's key attackers in form for home win
Samatta leads scoring with strong away form, supported by Maja and Fofana, fitting predicted 2 goals
Doucouré's creative edge in midfield
Doucouré's assist rate (0.5 per game) surpasses league average, boosting Le Havre's chance creation
Le Havre's defensive stalwarts provide stability
Seko and Touba show strong passing and defensive stats, aiding team control despite recent losses
Auxerre missing key defenders weakens defense
Seven confirmed outs including multiple defenders likely reduce Auxerre's defensive solidity
The context
Le Havre have historically held the upper hand against Auxerre, winning 12 of their 20 meetings. However, current league form favours Auxerre, who have collected 6 points from 5 games compared to Le Havre's 2 points from 6. Auxerre's points-per-game advantage suggests better recent performances, but Le Havre's home advantage and head-to-head record add intrigue.
Key insights
Mbwana Samatta
Le Havre
Samatta leads scoring with a strong away goal rate and key attacking role, fitting the predicted two goals for Le Havre.
Ligue 1 26/272 goals in 5 games, 428 mins played
Fodé Doucouré
Le Havre
Doucouré's assist rate surpasses league average, boosting Le Havre's chance creation and attacking threat.
Ligue 1 26/271 assist in 2 games, 95 mins played
- A
Ayumu Seko
Le Havre
Seko provides defensive stability and excellent passing, helping control the game despite recent losses.
Ligue 1 26/27High passing accuracy (88%) and volume (avg 51.8 passes/game)
Analysis
The match is expected to be cagey in the first half, reflected by the predicted 0-0 halftime scoreline. Le Havre's attacking threat is led by Mbwana Samatta, who boasts a strong scoring rate and key role in the team. Midfielder Fodé Doucouré's creativity and assist rate provide an additional edge. Defensively, Le Havre's stability through players like Ayumu Seko and Ahmed Touba will be crucial. Auxerre, meanwhile, face defensive challenges with several key players unavailable, potentially weakening their backline and opening opportunities for Le Havre's attackers.
Key facts
- 1.Le Havre have won 12 of 20 head-to-head matches against Auxerre.
- 2.Head-to-head matches average 2.4 total goals (29 for Le Havre, 18 for Auxerre).
- 3.Le Havre are ranked 18th in their league with 2 points from 6 games (W0 D2 L4).
- 4.Auxerre are ranked 15th in their league with 6 points from 5 games (W2 D0 L3).
- 5.Auxerre have a points-per-game advantage (1.20) over Le Havre (0.33).
- 6.Mbwana Samatta is Le Havre's top scorer with 2 goals in 5 games.
- 7.Fodé Doucouré leads Le Havre's assists with 1 in 2 games.
- 8.Auxerre are missing seven players including key defenders, weakening their defence.
Prediction
We anticipate a closely fought match with Le Havre ultimately prevailing 2-1. The home side's ability to break the deadlock in the second half, combined with their historical dominance and Auxerre's defensive absences, should be decisive. Expect a competitive game with four cards shown as tempers flare in this mid-table tussle.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Le Havre
Away — Auxerre
No standout top scorers flagged for Auxerre
The verdict
Le Havre's blend of attacking prowess and defensive resilience, coupled with Auxerre's current injury woes, sets the stage for a narrow home victory. Fans can look forward to a match where the goals come late and the tension builds, ending with Le Havre taking the spoils.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 17:10 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Namaso
Assist: Danois
Akpa
Yellow Card
Ahamada
Yellow Card
Ndiaye
Yellow Card
Namaso
Assist: Faivre
Maja
Ndiaye
Nakamura
Fofana
Faivre
Assist: Namaso
Ahamada
Ouziad
Ndiaye
Sy
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lyon | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +8 | 14 |
| 12 |  Toulouse | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 9 |
| 13 |  Auxerre | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 9 |
| 14 |  Strasbourg | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 17 |  Estac Troyes | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -11 | 4 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 2 |
Match Statistics
Le Havre
4-3-3Starting XI
- 5A. ToubaD
- 6J. MwangaD
- 7A. RichardsonM
- 9J. MajaF
- 14R. NdiayeM
- 20D. OuziadD
- 25M. SamattaF
- 26S. EbonogM
- 30S. NakamuraF
- 93G. GallonG
Substitutes
- 16A. BodartG
- 17K. MizutaM
- 23V. SassoD
- 24G. ZohouriM
- 27E. Koffi VinetteF
- 38R. FofanaF
- 44I. BounebM
- 78D. MosengoM
Auxerre
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 1P. NardiG
- 4A. TuanzebeD
- 5K. DanoisM
- 8N. AhamadaM
- 9C. ArcherF
- 10D. NamasoM
- 15C. MakossoD
- 21R. FaivreM
- 22F. OppegårdM
- 27L. SyM
- 92C. AkpaD
Substitutes
- 17P. EkwahM
- 20S. DiomandéD
- 23M. DiopG
- 34L. DioubateM
- 35E. LegrosD
- 44Mamoudou CissokhoF
- 46A. PiedfortM
- 77Aristide ZossouM
Le Havre
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Fofana | F | 28 | 7.0 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | — | — |
| E. Koffi Vinette | F | 28 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| J. Mwanga | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Nakamura | F | 62 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| M. Samatta | F | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 4 | 3 | — | 0/1 |
| A. Touba | D | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Ouziad | D | 84 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 1/3 |
| J. Maja | F | 62 | 6.2 | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | — |
| A. Richardson | M | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 3 | 1/1 |
| S. Ebonog | M | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| R. Ndiaye | M | 85 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| G. Zohouri | M | 5 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Mizuta | M | 6 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Gallon | G | 90 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Bodart | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| V. Sasso | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Bouneb | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Mosengo | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Auxerre
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Namaso | M | 90 | 9.3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2/3 |
| R. Faivre | M | 90 | 9.0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2/5 |
| P. Nardi | G | 90 | 7.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Danois | M | 90 | 7.7 | — | 1 | — | — | 3 | 1/1 |
| A. Tuanzebe | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| C. Makosso | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| C. Akpa | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Oppegård | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/2 |
| E. Legros | D | 1 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Archer | F | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | 1/5 |
| L. Sy | M | 89 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/4 |
| A. Piedfort | M | 8 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Ahamada | M | 82 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| L. Dioubate | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Diop | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mamoudou Cissokho | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Aristide Zossou | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Ekwah | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Diomandé | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Le Havre vs Auxerre?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Le Havre to win against Auxerre.
- What score did Fipster predict for Le Havre vs Auxerre?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Le Havre 2–1 Auxerre.
- What were the win probabilities for Le Havre vs Auxerre?
- Fipster's model gave Le Havre a 53% chance of winning, Auxerre a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 53% confidence — a medium-confidence call.