Lazio vs Parma
Lazio edge Parma in tight tussle
A late Parma goal adds drama but Lazio hold on for the win.
Lazio secured a narrow 2-1 victory over Parma in Serie A, with K. Taylor opening the scoring shortly after the break and an own goal by Diego Carlos doubling their lead. Parma's S. Lontani pulled one back deep into stoppage time, but it was too little too late. Fipster's high-confidence prediction for a Lazio win was spot on, though the expected scoreline was a bit more generous to the home side.
Outcome probability
Lazio, known as the Biancocelesti, face Parma in the eighth round of the regular season. With Lazio sitting comfortably near the top of the table and Parma struggling near the bottom, this match promises a clear favourite.
Match factors
Lazio's attacking midfield dominance
Frattesi and Zaccagni outperform league averages in goals and assists, providing creative edge
Strong home scoring form for Lazio
Lazio averages 2 goals per home game with consistent scoring streaks
Nuno Tavares' dual threat
Tavares contributes both goals and assists recently, boosting Lazio's offensive options
Parma missing key attacker Almqvist
Almqvist is confirmed out, reducing Parma's attacking threat and assist potential
The context
Lazio currently hold second place with 19 points from seven games, boasting a goal difference of +10. Parma, on the other hand, are 16th with just four points from six matches and a goal difference of -6. Historically, Lazio have dominated this fixture, winning 14 of their 20 meetings against Parma.
Key insights
Davide Frattesi
Lazio
Frattesi's above-average scoring rate for a midfielder gives Lazio a creative edge in attack.
Serie A 26/273 goals in 6 appearances, 0.5 goals/game
Mattia Zaccagni
Lazio
Zaccagni's playmaking skills and set-piece duties make him a key assist provider.
Serie A 26/273 assists in 6 appearances, 0.33 assists/game
Nuno Tavares
Lazio
Tavares offers a dual threat with both defensive solidity and offensive contributions.
Serie A 26/272 assists in 6 appearances, 0.33 assists/game
Analysis
Lazio's attacking midfield duo, Davide Frattesi and Mattia Zaccagni, have been instrumental this season, outperforming league averages in goals and assists. Frattesi has netted three goals in six appearances, while Zaccagni leads with three assists in six games. Defender Nuno Tavares adds both defensive solidity and offensive support, contributing two assists recently. Parma will miss key attacker Almqvist, further weakening their offensive threat. Lazio's strong home scoring form, averaging two goals per game, combined with Parma's defensive vulnerabilities, sets the stage for a dominant performance by the Biancocelesti.
Key facts
- 1.Lazio have won 14 of 20 meetings against Parma.
- 2.Lazio are 2nd in the league with 19 points from 7 games (W6 D1 L0).
- 3.Parma are 16th with 4 points from 6 games (W1 D1 L4).
- 4.Lazio's goal difference (+10) far exceeds Parma's (-6).
- 5.Davide Frattesi has scored 3 goals in 6 appearances this season.
- 6.Mattia Zaccagni leads Lazio with 3 assists in 6 games.
- 7.Nuno Tavares has contributed 2 assists recently.
- 8.Parma's key attacker Almqvist is ruled out for this match.
Prediction
We expect Lazio to take an early lead and maintain control throughout, leading 2-0 at halftime and extending their advantage to a 4-0 fulltime victory. The match is also likely to see around four cards, reflecting a competitive but controlled encounter.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Lazio
Away — Parma
The verdict
With superior form, key player contributions, and historical dominance, Lazio look set to secure a comprehensive win over Parma. Fans can anticipate a confident display from the Biancocelesti as they continue their strong league campaign.
Prediction generated 19 Oct 2026, 20:39 UTC · Fipster Model v1.165
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Provstgaard
Yellow Card
Sierro
Yellow Card
Sierro
Provstgaard
Taylor
Diego Carlos (OG)
Ordoñez
Taylor
Diego Carlos
Zaccagni
Isaksen
Romero
Lontani
Assist: Fabbian
Match Statistics
Lazio
4-3-3Starting XI
- 10M. ZaccagniF
- 11G. IsaksenF
- 14T. NoslinF
- 15R. Floriani MussoliniD
- 16D. FrattesiM
- 17Nuno TavaresD
- 21R. BelahyaneM
- 24K. TaylorM
- 25O. ProvstgaardD
- 35C. MandasG
- 37J. ŠutaloD
Substitutes
- 2Diogo LeiteD
- 3L. PellegriniD
- 5D. DoekhiD
- 7F. Dele-BashiruM
- 22M. CancellieriF
- 23PedrazaD
- 28A. PrzyborekM
- 29M. LazzariM
- 32D. CataldiM
- 40E. MottaG
- 47D. RenzettiG
- 63F. SerraF
- 71V. FarcomeniM
- 76Filipe BordonD
Parma
5-3-2Starting XI
- 4V. SierroM
- 9D. RomeroF
- 14E. ValeriD
- 15E. Del PratoD
- 16M. KeitaM
- 19E. TouréF
- 32C. OrdoñezM
- 34Diego CarlosD
- 37M. TroiloD
- 40E. CorviG
- 72D. DrobnicD
Substitutes
- 3A. N'DiayeD
- 7Ousmane DialloF
- 8B. CremaschiM
- 10Adrián BernabéM
- 20M. FriganF
- 22S. GhidottiG
- 25T. De MartisF
- 27S. BritschgiD
- 29F. CarboniD
- 30G. DaffaraG
- 47Abdou KonateM
- 76S. LontaniF
- 80G. FabbianM
Lazio
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Taylor | M | 71 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | — |
| C. Mandas | G | 90 | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Šutalo | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nuno Tavares | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 3 | 0/1 |
| Diogo Leite | D | 44 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/2 |
| R. Belahyane | M | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| F. Dele-Bashiru | M | 19 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 2/2 |
| D. Frattesi | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 3 | — | — | 0/2 |
| M. Zaccagni | F | 77 | 6.7 | — | — | 3 | — | 7 | 1/3 |
| R. Floriani Mussolini | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | — |
| O. Provstgaard | D | 46 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Lazzari | M | 13 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| T. Noslin | F | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 1/4 |
| G. Isaksen | F | 77 | 6.3 | — | — | 5 | — | 1 | 2/2 |
| Pedraza | D | 13 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Cancellieri | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Doekhi | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Przyborek | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Filipe Bordon | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Renzetti | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Motta | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Serra | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| V. Farcomeni | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Pellegrini | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Cataldi | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Parma
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Lontani | F | 27 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | — |
| E. Valeri | D | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | 4 | 0/1 |
| M. Frigan | F | 18 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| M. Troilo | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| E. Del Prato | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 2/2 |
| E. Touré | F | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 3 | 2 | — | 0/2 |
| D. Drobnic | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Keita | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| D. Romero | F | 78 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0/2 |
| C. Ordoñez | M | 63 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Adrián Bernabé | M | 44 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| G. Fabbian | M | 12 | 6.0 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| V. Sierro | M | 46 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Corvi | G | 90 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Diego Carlos | D | 72 | 5.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ousmane Diallo | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. De Martis | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Britschgi | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Abdou Konate | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Ghidotti | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. N'Diaye | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Carboni | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Daffara | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Cremaschi | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Lazio vs Parma?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Lazio to win against Parma.
- What score did Fipster predict for Lazio vs Parma?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Lazio 4–0 Parma.
- What were the win probabilities for Lazio vs Parma?
- Fipster's model gave Lazio a 95% chance of winning, Parma a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.