Lazio vs Inter
Match recap
Inter beat Lazio 3–0 in their Serie A fixture. Lautaro Martínez, Sučić, and Mkhitaryan scored for Inter. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 0.55 for Lazio versus 1.13 for Inter. Lazio sit 9th in the Serie A table while Inter are 1st.
Analysis
As Serie A approaches its 36th round, Lazio host Inter in a fixture that promises tactical intrigue and attacking flair. Both teams have their stars and injury concerns, but the visitors hold the edge on paper.
Lazio sit 8th with 51 points, while Inter lead the league with 82 points. Historically, Inter have dominated this matchup, winning 11 of 20 encounters. The average goals per game in their meetings is a lively 2.8, suggesting an open contest.
Inter's attacking prowess is spearheaded by Marcus Thuram, who boasts 6 goals in his last 5 games and a strong away scoring record. Despite injuries to key players like Lautaro Martínez and Dimarco, Inter's creative midfield, led by Dimarco and Barella, remains potent. Lazio's defence has shown vulnerabilities at home, conceding 1.2 goals per game, which Inter are likely to exploit.
Prediction
We predict a 2-1 away win for Inter, with a halftime score of 0-1. The match is expected to feature four cards, reflecting a competitive but controlled encounter. Confidence in this outcome stands at 68%, supported by Inter's form and historical dominance.
Outcome probability
Key Insights
Inter's superior attacking form
Inter averages 2.3 goals per game with multiple players in strong scoring form, outpacing Lazio's 1.1
Key attackers missing for both teams
Lazio missing Cancellieri and Cataldi; Inter missing Lautaro and Dimarco, impacting attacking options
Inter's creative midfield dominance
Dimarco and Barella lead assists with high passing accuracy, providing quality service to forwards
Thuram's recent scoring surge
Marcus Thuram scored 6 goals in last 5 games, indicating strong form to influence match outcome
Lazio's defensive vulnerabilities
Lazio concedes 1.2 goals at home, with several defensive injuries, potentially exploitable by Inter
Key Takeaways
In summary, Inter's superior form, combined with Lazio's defensive frailties and key absences, points to a narrow away victory. Expect a tactical battle with moments of attacking brilliance, ultimately favouring the league leaders.
- Inter have won 11 of 20 matches against Lazio, with 5 draws and 4 Lazio wins.
- Head-to-head matches average 2.8 goals, indicating open, attacking games.
- Inter lead Serie A with 82 points; Lazio are 8th with 51 points.
- Marcus Thuram has scored 6 goals in his last 5 games, including 3 in his last 2 away matches.
- Lazio concede an average of 1.2 goals per home game, showing defensive vulnerabilities.
- Inter's Dimarco leads the league with 16 assists, providing key creative support.
- Lautaro Martínez, Inter's top scorer with 16 goals, is currently injured, impacting attacking options.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Lazio
No standout top scorers flagged for Lazio
Away — Inter
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Lautaro Martínez
Assist: Thuram
Sučić
Assist: Lautaro Martínez
Thuram
Barella
Pellegrini
Yellow Card
Rovella
Gila
Cancellieri
Card upgrade
Romagnoli
Red Card
Pedro
Lautaro Martínez
Bastoni
Noslin
Yellow Card
Mkhitaryan
Assist: Bonny
Marušić
Sučić
Mkhitaryan
Yellow Card
Match Statistics
Lazio
4-3-3Starting XI
- 3L. PellegriniD
- 6N. RovellaM
- 7F. Dele-BashiruM
- 9PedroF
- 13A. RomagnoliD
- 14T. NoslinF
- 22M. CancellieriF
- 26T. BašićM
- 34Mario GilaD
- 40E. MottaG
- 77A. MarušićD
Substitutes
- 2S. GigotD
- 4PatricD
- 17Nuno TavaresD
- 18G. IsaksenF
- 19B. DiaF
- 20P. RatkovF
- 21R. BelahyaneM
- 23E. HysajD
- 24K. TaylorM
- 25O. ProvstgaardD
- 27D. MaldiniF
- 28A. PrzyborekM
- 29M. LazzariM
- 55A. FurlanettoG
- 99Giacomo GiacomoneG
Inter
3-5-2Starting XI
- 8P. SučićM
- 9M. ThuramF
- 10Lautaro MartínezF
- 13Josep MartínezG
- 15F. AcerbiD
- 17A. DioufM
- 22H. MkhitaryanM
- 23N. BarellaM
- 30Carlos AugustoM
- 31Y. BisseckD
- 95A. BastoniD
Substitutes
- 1Y. SommerG
- 2D. DumfriesD
- 6S. de VrijD
- 7P. ZielińskiM
- 11Luis HenriqueF
- 12R. Di GennaroG
- 14A. BonnyF
- 16D. FrattesiM
- 25M. AkanjiD
- 32F. DimarcoD
- 36M. DarmianD
- 43M. CocchiD
- 48M. MosconiF
Lazio
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tijjani Noslin | F | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4/4 |
| Mario Gila | D | 56 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nicolò Rovella | M | 56 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Toma Bašić | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Pedro | F | 62 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/3 |
| Matteo Cancellieri | F | 56 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Edoardo Motta | G | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luca Pellegrini | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Fisayo Dele-Bashiru | M | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/4 |
| Adam Marušić(C) | D | 77 | 5.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alessio Romagnoli | D | 59 | 5.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Elseid Hysaj | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Samuel Gigot | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kenneth Taylor | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nuno Tavares | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alessio Furlanetto | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Maldini | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Petar Ratkov | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Reda Belahyane | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Adrian Przyborek | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Giacomo Giacomone | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Boulaye Dia | F | 28 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2/2 |
| Manuel Lazzari | M | 13 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gustav Isaksen | F | 34 | 6.3 | — | — | 3 | 2 | — | 1/1 |
| Patric | D | 34 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Oliver Provstgaard | D | 34 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
Inter
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Petar Sučić | M | 80 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Henrikh Mkhitaryan | M | 90 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Lautaro Martínez(C) | F | 63 | 8.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | — |
| Josep Martínez | G | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Carlos Augusto | M | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Francesco Acerbi | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alessandro Bastoni | D | 63 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Andy Diouf | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Marcus Thuram | F | 45 | 6.9 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| Yann Bisseck | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Nicolò Barella | M | 45 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Manuel Akanji | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stefan de Vrij | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Piotr Zieliński | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matteo Darmian | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yann Sommer | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Federico Dimarco | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Raffaele Di Gennaro | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matteo Cocchi | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Denzel Dumfries | D | 27 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny | F | 45 | 6.7 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Luís Henrique | F | 27 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Davide Frattesi | M | 45 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Mattia Mosconi | F | 10 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |