Lazio vs Genoa
Frattesi's strike secures Lazio win
A solitary goal was enough for Lazio to claim all three points against Genoa.
Lazio edged out Genoa 1-0 thanks to D. Frattesi's first-half goal at 25 minutes. The match was a tight affair with the single strike proving decisive. Fipster's medium-confidence prediction of a Lazio home win with the exact scoreline proved spot on.
Outcome probability
The new Serie A season kicks off with Lazio facing Genoa in what promises to be a closely contested encounter. Both teams have reshaped their squads over the summer, setting the stage for a tactical battle as they look to start the campaign on a positive note.
Key facts
- 1.Lazio finished 9th last season with 54 points, Genoa 16th with 41 points.
- 2.Lazio have a superior goal difference (+1) compared to Genoa (-10) from last season.
- 3.Lazio signed P. Ratkov this summer, adding firepower to their attack.
- 4.Lazio lost M. Guendouzi to a transfer, potentially affecting midfield dynamics.
- 5.Genoa parted ways with R. Malinovskyi, who left as a free agent.
- 6.The predicted match will likely see around four yellow cards, indicating a competitive game.
- 7.The most probable fulltime score is 1-0 in favour of Lazio.
- 8.Halftime is also expected to see Lazio leading 1-0, suggesting an early goal.
The context
Lazio have welcomed P. Ratkov into their ranks this summer, aiming to bolster their attacking options after the departure of M. Guendouzi. Genoa, meanwhile, have been shorn of R. Malinovskyi, who left as a free agent, potentially impacting their creative midfield presence. These changes will be key factors as both sides seek to establish momentum early in the season.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Lazio
Away — Genoa
Analysis
Looking at the teams' standings from last season, Lazio finished comfortably higher than Genoa, with a better goal difference, suggesting a slight edge in quality. The prediction models favour a home win with a 1-0 scoreline, reflecting a match where Lazio might take an early lead and then focus on maintaining their advantage. The expected four cards hint at a competitive and possibly tense affair, with both sides eager to assert themselves.
Prediction
We anticipate Lazio to take the lead by halftime and hold on to that slender advantage through to full time. The 1-0 scoreline aligns with the teams' comparative strengths and the tactical adjustments made during the summer. Genoa will likely push for an equaliser, but Lazio's defensive resilience and the impact of their new signing could prove decisive.
The verdict
As the season opener unfolds, expect a disciplined Lazio side to leverage their summer reinforcements and home advantage to claim all three points. Genoa will provide stern resistance, but the Biancocelesti look set to start their campaign with a narrow but deserved victory.
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Østigård
Yellow Card
Frattesi
Assist: Nuno Tavares
Yellow Card
Rovella
Sow
Cancellieri
Vítinha
Nuno Tavares
Vásquez
Baldanzi
Dia
Floriani Mussolini
Zaccagni
Yellow Card
Amorim
Yellow Card
Match Statistics
Lazio
4-3-3Starting XI
- 5D. DoekhiD
- 6N. RovellaM
- 10M. ZaccagniF
- 15R. Floriani MussoliniD
- 16D. FrattesiM
- 17Nuno TavaresD
- 19B. DiaF
- 22M. CancellieriF
- 24K. TaylorM
- 25O. ProvstgaardD
- 35C. MandasG
Substitutes
- 9A. PinamontiF
- 11G. IsaksenF
- 13A. RomagnoliD
- 14T. NoslinF
- 21R. BelahyaneM
- 23PedrazaD
- 28A. PrzyborekM
- 29M. LazzariM
- 33Ricardo BordonD
- 37J. ŠutaloD
- 40E. MottaG
- 47D. RenzettiG
- 63F. SerraF
- 71V. FarcomeniM
Genoa
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 1J. BijlowG
- 5L. ØstigårdD
- 8T. BaldanziF
- 9VítinhaF
- 15B. Norton-CuffyM
- 22J. VásquezD
- 27A. MarcandalliD
- 29L. ColomboF
- 32M. FrendrupM
- 77M. EllertssonM
- 97D. SowM
Substitutes
- 2M. MitajD
- 3Aarón MartínD
- 4Alexsandro AmorimM
- 10Junior MessiasF
- 11E. MeichtryM
- 17E. HavelF
- 18M. OsmajićF
- 20S. SabelliD
- 31D. PuczkaD
- 34S. OtoaD
- 39D. SommarivaG
- 71S. WiafeM
- 74Mamedi DoucoureD
- 85M. VazD
- 99F. StolzG
Lazio
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davide Frattesi | M | 94 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1/2 |
| Mattia Zaccagni(C) | F | 94 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 4 | 0/3 |
| Nuno Tavares | D | 63 | 7.2 | — | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1/1 |
| Oliver Provstgaard | D | 94 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matteo Cancellieri | F | 63 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2/2 |
| Christos Mandas | G | 94 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Nicolò Rovella | M | 37 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Danilho Doekhi | D | 94 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| Kenneth Taylor | M | 94 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Romano Floriani Mussolini | D | 80 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Boulaye Dia | F | 80 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Josip Šutalo | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tijjani Noslin | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Adrian Przyborek | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Edoardo Motta | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Federico Serra | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Valerio Farcomeni | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Davide Renzetti | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ricardo Bordon | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alessio Romagnoli | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Reda Belahyane | M | 57 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Manuel Lazzari | M | 14 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alfonso Pedraza | D | 31 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Andrea Pinamonti | F | 14 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Gustav Isaksen | F | 31 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
Genoa
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Djibril Sow | M | 58 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Johan Vásquez(C) | D | 78 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Leo Østigård | D | 94 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vitinha | F | 63 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Brooke Norton-Cuffy | M | 94 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 3 | 2/2 |
| Justin Bijlow | G | 94 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Morten Frendrup | M | 94 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2/2 |
| Tommaso Baldanzi | F | 78 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Alessandro Marcandalli | D | 94 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Mikael Ellertsson | M | 94 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Lorenzo Colombo | F | 94 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Marcelo Vaz | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Franz Stolz | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Aarón Martín | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stefano Sabelli | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Daniele Sommariva | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Elias Havel | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mario Mitaj | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| David Puczka | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sebastian Otoa | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Samuel Wiafe | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mamedi Doucoure | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Junior Messias | F | 36 | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/2 |
| Milutin Osmajić | F | 31 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Franz-Ethan Meichtry | M | 16 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2/2 |
| Alexsandro Amorim | M | 16 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Lazio vs Genoa?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Lazio to win against Genoa.
- What score did Fipster predict for Lazio vs Genoa?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Lazio 1–0 Genoa.
- What were the win probabilities for Lazio vs Genoa?
- Fipster's model gave Lazio a 47% chance of winning, Genoa a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 47% confidence — a medium-confidence call.