Lazio vs Cagliari
Lazio edge Cagliari in tight tussle
Pinamonti's late strike seals a narrow win for the home side.
Cagliari took an early lead through M'Bala Nzola at 20', but Lazio fought back with goals from G. Isaksen before the break and A. Pinamonti in the 83rd minute to clinch a 2-1 victory. While Fipster predicted a more comfortable 4-1 win for Lazio, the outcome still aligned with the forecast of a home win, just with less of a goal glut than expected.
Outcome probability
Lazio, known as the Biancocelesti, face Cagliari in a Serie A regular season clash. With Lazio leading the league and Cagliari mid-table, this match promises a clear favourite.
Match factors
Lazio missing key defenders and goalkeeper
Lazio's confirmed absences include defender Patric and goalkeeper Furlanetto, potentially impacting defensive stability
Lazio's strong winning streak and scoring form
Lazio is on a 5-game winning streak with consistent scoring, averaging 2.44 goals per game
Lazio's attacking players in strong recent form
Zaccagni and Noslin have multiple goals and assists recently, providing offensive edge
Cagliari's midfield weakened by Winks' absence
Winks is confirmed out with back injury, reducing midfield creativity and passing accuracy
Lazio's superior passing and defensive metrics
Lazio defenders and midfielders show higher passing accuracy and tackle rates than Cagliari counterparts
The context
Lazio currently top the league with 25 points from 9 games, boasting a +15 goal difference. Cagliari sit 9th with 13 points from 8 games and a -3 goal difference. Historically, Lazio have dominated this fixture, winning 16 of 20 meetings without a single loss to Cagliari.
Key insights
- M
M. Zaccagni
Lazio
Zaccagni has been a key attacking outlet with multiple goals and assists recently, boasting a high rating of 9.53 in the last away game.
Serie A 26/27High recent ratings including 9.53 in last away game; consistent goal involvement
- H
H. Winks
Cagliari
Winks is out with a back injury, reducing Cagliari's midfield creativity and passing accuracy, which could hamper their control in this match.
Serie A 26/27Confirmed out with back injury
Analysis
Lazio's recent form is impressive, riding a five-game winning streak and averaging over two goals per game. Key players like M. Zaccagni have been instrumental, contributing goals and assists consistently. Meanwhile, Cagliari face challenges with the absence of midfielder H. Winks, which weakens their midfield creativity. Lazio's defensive and passing metrics also outshine Cagliari's, suggesting a tactical edge.
Key facts
- 1.Lazio have won 16 of 20 meetings against Cagliari, with no losses and 4 draws.
- 2.Lazio lead the league with 25 points from 9 games, while Cagliari are 9th with 13 points from 8 games.
- 3.Lazio have a +15 goal difference compared to Cagliari's -3 this season.
- 4.Lazio are on a 5-game winning streak, averaging 2.44 goals per game.
- 5.Cagliari's midfielder H. Winks is out with a back injury, impacting their midfield creativity.
- 6.Lazio defenders and midfielders show higher passing accuracy and tackle rates than Cagliari counterparts.
- 7.The predicted halftime score is 2-0, with a fulltime score of 4-1 in favour of Lazio.
- 8.The match is expected to have around 4 cards, indicating a moderately physical game.
Prediction
Expect Lazio to take an early lead, reflected in the predicted 2-0 halftime score. Their attacking prowess should continue into the second half, culminating in a 4-1 victory. The match is also expected to see around four cards, indicating a competitive but controlled game.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Lazio
Away — Cagliari
The verdict
All signs point to a comfortable win for Lazio, who combine strong form, superior stats, and historical dominance over Cagliari. The Biancocelesti should maintain their league lead with this result, while Cagliari will need to regroup for upcoming fixtures.
Prediction generated 27 Oct 2026, 21:38 UTC · Fipster Model v1.166
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
M'Bala Nzola
Assist: Fadera
Fadera
Isaksen
Assist: Noslin
M'Bala Nzola
Zaccagni
Frattesi
Nuno Tavares
Fazzini
Yellow Card
Maldini
Fazzini
Rodríguez
Yellow Card
Provstgaard
Obert
Yellow Card
Belahyane
Pinamonti
Assist: Pedraza
Pinamonti
Yellow Card
Deiola
Obert
Red Card
Match Statistics
Lazio
4-3-3Starting XI
- 10M. ZaccagniF
- 11G. IsaksenF
- 14T. NoslinF
- 15R. Floriani MussoliniD
- 16D. FrattesiM
- 17Nuno TavaresD
- 21R. BelahyaneM
- 24K. TaylorM
- 25O. ProvstgaardD
- 35C. MandasG
- 37J. ŠutaloD
Substitutes
- 2Diogo LeiteD
- 3L. PellegriniD
- 5D. DoekhiD
- 7F. Dele-BashiruM
- 9A. PinamontiF
- 22M. CancellieriF
- 23PedrazaD
- 28A. PrzyborekM
- 29M. LazzariM
- 32D. CataldiM
- 33Ricardo BordonD
- 40E. MottaG
- 47D. RenzettiG
- 71V. FarcomeniM
- 76Filipe BordonD
Cagliari
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1E. CaprileG
- 2Zé PedroD
- 4A. RomanoM
- 8M. AdopoM
- 10J. FazziniM
- 14A. DeiolaD
- 15J. RodríguezD
- 18M'Bala NzolaF
- 33A. ObertD
- 39A. FaderaM
- 70D. MaldiniM
Substitutes
- 6H. WinksM
- 9Kevin CarlosF
- 12A. SherriG
- 19Y. TrepyF
- 20R. CiervoF
- 21R. GagliardiniM
- 22R. KoflerD
- 23B. RadunovićG
- 24G. AurelioD
- 26Y. MinaD
- 27J. LitetaM
- 28Y. SugawaraD
- 31P. MendyF
- 32Ivan Stoyanov SulevM
- 79Y. MassolinM
Lazio
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G. Isaksen | F | 90 | 7.8 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | — | 0/3 |
| A. Pinamonti | F | 35 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| K. Taylor | M | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| F. Dele-Bashiru | M | 35 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| T. Noslin | F | 90 | 6.9 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2 | 1/6 |
| R. Belahyane | M | 81 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Mandas | G | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O. Provstgaard | D | 76 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Pedraza | D | 35 | 6.7 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| Nuno Tavares | D | 55 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| R. Floriani Mussolini | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| J. Šutalo | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Frattesi | M | 55 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Diogo Leite | D | 14 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Zaccagni | F | 55 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2/3 |
| D. Cataldi | M | 9 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Filipe Bordon | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Cancellieri | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Doekhi | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ricardo Bordon | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Lazzari | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| V. Farcomeni | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Motta | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Pellegrini | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Renzetti | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Przyborek | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Cagliari
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M'Bala Nzola | F | 46 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| A. Fadera | M | 32 | 6.8 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| A. Romano | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/2 |
| Y. Trepy | F | 26 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| D. Maldini | M | 64 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Kevin Carlos | F | 1 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Mendy | F | 44 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/3 |
| R. Kofler | D | 58 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Liteta | M | 26 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| J. Rodríguez | D | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Zé Pedro | D | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| J. Fazzini | M | 64 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/2 |
| M. Adopo | M | 90 | 5.8 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/3 |
| A. Deiola | D | 89 | 5.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| E. Caprile | G | 90 | 5.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Obert | D | 91 | 5.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Y. Sugawara | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Winks | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Aurelio | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Ciervo | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Y. Massolin | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ivan Stoyanov Sulev | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Gagliardini | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Y. Mina | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Sherri | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Radunović | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Lazio vs Cagliari?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Lazio to win against Cagliari.
- What score did Fipster predict for Lazio vs Cagliari?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Lazio 4–1 Cagliari.
- What were the win probabilities for Lazio vs Cagliari?
- Fipster's model gave Lazio a 95% chance of winning, Cagliari a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.