Lazio vs AC Milan
AC Milan claw back late for draw at Lazio
Diego Moreira's brace rescues a point after Lazio's early double strike.
Lazio looked set for a comfortable win after M. Cancellieri and T. Noslin put them two goals ahead by the 39th minute. However, AC Milan's Diego Moreira sparked a comeback with two goals shortly after the break, leveling the score at 2-2. This spirited fightback defied Fipster's medium-confidence prediction of a narrow Lazio victory, turning the fixture into a shared spoils affair.
Outcome probability
The new Serie A season kicks off with an intriguing clash between Lazio and AC Milan. Both sides have reshaped their squads over the summer, aiming to start the campaign on a strong note. Lazio, known as the Biancocelesti, and AC Milan, the Rossoneri, will be eager to claim early bragging rights in this eagerly anticipated fixture.
Key facts
- 1.Lazio have signed A. Pinamonti and D. Doekhi, and have A. Guðmundsson on loan for the new season.
- 2.AC Milan have brought in Diego Moreira, Mario Gila, and O. Hutchinson on loan.
- 3.Lazio have lost A. Romagnoli, I. Provedel, and loaned out B. Dia.
- 4.AC Milan have lost Rafael Leão and loaned out S. Ricci and Y. Fofana.
- 5.AC Milan finished higher than Lazio last season with a better goal difference (+17).
- 6.The predicted final score is 1-0 in favour of Lazio.
- 7.The halftime score is also expected to be 1-0, indicating an early lead for Lazio.
- 8.A total of 4 cards is the most likely disciplinary outcome for the match.
The context
Lazio have bolstered their ranks with the signings of A. Pinamonti and D. Doekhi, alongside A. Guðmundsson arriving on loan, while parting ways with B. Dia, A. Romagnoli, and I. Provedel. AC Milan have also been active, bringing in Diego Moreira, Mario Gila, and O. Hutchinson on loan, but have lost key players including Rafael Leão. These changes set the stage for a fresh contest between two sides looking to assert themselves early in the season.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Lazio
Away — AC Milan
Analysis
Despite AC Milan's stronger goal difference last season and a higher league finish, the prediction leans towards a Lazio victory. The home side's probability of winning is the highest among all outcomes, with a 1-0 scoreline being the most likely result. The halftime score is also expected to be 1-0, suggesting Lazio may take an early lead and hold on. The match is anticipated to be competitive, with a moderate number of cards expected, reflecting a keen but controlled contest.
Prediction
The forecast calls for a narrow 1-0 win for Lazio. The Biancocelesti are expected to take the lead in the first half and maintain their advantage through disciplined defending and tactical organisation. AC Milan will pose threats but may struggle to break down Lazio's defence, resulting in a tight scoreline that favours the home side.
The verdict
This season opener promises a tactical battle with Lazio just edging out AC Milan. Fans can expect a closely fought match where a single goal could decide the outcome. Both teams will look to build momentum from this fixture as they embark on their respective campaigns.
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Cancellieri
Assist: Zaccagni
Noslin
Modrić
Loftus-Cheek
Estupiñán
Cancellieri
Noslin
Pulišić
Yellow Card
Belahyane
Yellow Card
Pavlović
Yellow Card
Diego Moreira
Assist: Pulišić
Diego Moreira
Assist: Rabiot
Taylor
Cissè
Zaccagni
Yellow Card
Floriani Mussolini
Šutalo
Ramos
Gila
Yellow Card
Match Statistics
Lazio
4-3-3Starting XI
- 10M. ZaccagniF
- 14T. NoslinF
- 15R. Floriani MussoliniD
- 16D. FrattesiM
- 17Nuno TavaresD
- 21R. BelahyaneM
- 22M. CancellieriF
- 24K. TaylorM
- 25O. ProvstgaardD
- 35C. MandasG
- 37J. ŠutaloD
Substitutes
- 2Diogo LeiteD
- 9A. PinamontiF
- 11G. IsaksenF
- 23PedrazaD
- 28A. PrzyborekM
- 29M. LazzariM
- 32D. CataldiM
- 33Ricardo BordonD
- 40E. MottaG
- 47D. RenzettiG
- 63F. SerraF
- 71V. FarcomeniM
- 80A. GuðmundssonF
AC Milan
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 2P. EstupiñánM
- 5K. De WinterD
- 8R. Loftus-CheekF
- 9Gonçalo RamosF
- 12A. RabiotM
- 14L. ModrićM
- 16M. MaignanG
- 21S. ChukwuezeM
- 31S. PavlovićD
- 34Mario GilaD
- 70A. CissèF
Substitutes
- 1P. TerraccianoG
- 11C. PulišićM
- 13S. BocoumD
- 20O. HutchinsonF
- 22Diego MoreiraF
- 23F. TomoriD
- 28C. ComottoM
- 30A. JashariM
- 33D. BartesaghiD
- 42F. TerraccianoD
- 46M. GabbiaD
- 56A. SaelemaekersF
- 73F. CamardaF
- 80Y. MusahM
- 96L. TorrianiG
Lazio
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christos Mandas | G | 94 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mattia Zaccagni(C) | F | 94 | 7.5 | — | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Tijjani Noslin | F | 58 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | — | — |
| Matteo Cancellieri | F | 58 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Davide Frattesi | M | 94 | 7.0 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| Nuno Tavares | D | 94 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Reda Belahyane | M | 94 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kenneth Taylor | M | 74 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Oliver Provstgaard | D | 94 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Romano Floriani Mussolini | D | 84 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Josip Šutalo | D | 84 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Davide Renzetti | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Edoardo Motta | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Federico Serra | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Valerio Farcomeni | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alfonso Pedraza | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Danilo Cataldi | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Adrian Przyborek | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ricardo Bordon | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Manuel Lazzari | M | 10 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gustav Isaksen | F | 36 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Diogo Leite | D | 10 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Andrea Pinamonti | F | 36 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Albert Guðmundsson | F | 20 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
AC Milan
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Maignan(C) | G | 94 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Samuel Chukwueze | M | 94 | 7.2 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4/5 |
| Mario Gila | D | 94 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | — |
| Gonçalo Ramos | F | 85 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Koni De Winter | D | 94 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Adrien Rabiot | M | 94 | 6.5 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Pervis Estupiñán | M | 45 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Strahinja Pavlović | D | 94 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Ruben Loftus-Cheek | F | 45 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Alphadjo Cissè | F | 77 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| Luka Modrić | M | 45 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Christian Comotto | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lorenzo Torriani | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Davide Bartesaghi | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ardon Jashari | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Filippo Terracciano | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sankhoun Diawara | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matteo Gabbia | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pietro Terracciano | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fikayo Tomori | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alexis Saelemaekers | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Diego Moreira | F | 49 | 9.0 | 2 | — | 3 | 2 | — | 1/1 |
| Christian Pulišić | M | 49 | 6.9 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2/2 |
| Yunus Musah | M | 49 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Francesco Camarda | F | 9 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Omari Hutchinson | F | 17 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Lazio vs AC Milan?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Lazio to win against AC Milan.
- What score did Fipster predict for Lazio vs AC Milan?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Lazio 1–0 AC Milan.
- What were the win probabilities for Lazio vs AC Milan?
- Fipster's model gave Lazio a 59% chance of winning, AC Milan a 20% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 59% confidence — a medium-confidence call.