Latvia vs Montenegro
Adžić double downs Latvia in tight win
Montenegro's Vasilije Adžić strikes twice to secure a narrow victory away from home.
Montenegro edged Latvia 2-1 in the UEFA Nations League thanks to a brace from Vasilije Adžić, who opened the scoring early and doubled the lead after the break. Latvia's M. Strods pulled one back late on, but it wasn't enough to salvage a point. This result defied Fipster's low-confidence prediction of a Latvian win, proving the visitors had the final say.
Outcome probability
Latvia and Montenegro face off in a League C fixture where both sides will be eager to improve their standings. Latvia have struggled to find the net so far, while Montenegro have shown more attacking promise. This match promises a tight contest with fine margins likely to decide the outcome.
Match factors
Montenegro's attacking duo in form
Krstović and Osmajić both scored in last match, showing strong attacking synergy
Montenegro's superior goal involvement
Montenegro averages 2.5 goals per game vs Latvia's 0, indicating offensive edge
Latvia's scoring drought
Latvia failed to score in last 2 matches, struggling offensively at home
Montenegro's midfield defensive strength
Bulatović's 5 tackles and 60% duel win rate disrupt Latvia's build-up
The context
In this League C round 3 match, Latvia have yet to register a win, drawing once and losing once, with no goals scored and two conceded. Montenegro, on the other hand, remain unbeaten with two wins, scoring five and conceding three. Both teams will be looking to gain crucial points as the competition progresses.
Key insights
Nikola Krstović
Montenegro
Krstović has been involved in both a goal and an assist in the competition, making him Montenegro’s key attacking threat.
UEFA Nations League 26/271 goal, 1 assist in 1 appearance, 89 mins played
Milutin Osmajić
Montenegro
Osmajić scored in the last match with a strong rating, highlighting his importance in Montenegro’s attack.
UEFA Nations League 26/271 goal in 1 appearance, 90 mins played
- A
A. Bulatović
Montenegro
Bulatović’s defensive work rate disrupts Latvia’s build-up, with 5 tackles and a 60% duel win rate in the last match.
UEFA Nations League 26/275 tackles, 60% duel win rate
Analysis
Montenegro boast a stronger recent record and attacking output, led by the in-form duo Nikola Krstović and Milutin Osmajić, who both scored in their last match. However, Latvia's home advantage and defensive resilience could be decisive. Latvia have struggled offensively but may capitalise on Montenegro's defensive lapses. The predicted 1-0 scoreline reflects a tight game where Latvia manage to edge out their opponents.
Key facts
- 1.Latvia have played 2 matches in this competition (0 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss), scoring 0 and conceding 2 goals.
- 2.Montenegro have won both their matches, scoring 5 and conceding 3 goals in this competition.
- 3.The highest probability fulltime scoreline for a home win is 1-0, with a 16% chance.
- 4.Latvia have yet to score in this competition, highlighting their offensive struggles.
- 5.Montenegro's Nikola Krstović has 1 goal and 1 assist in this competition, showing strong attacking form.
- 6.Milutin Osmajić scored in the last match and is a key forward for Montenegro.
- 7.The predicted total number of cards in the match is 4, indicating a moderately physical game.
Prediction
The forecast is for a narrow home win by Latvia, with a 1-0 halftime and fulltime scoreline. Despite Montenegro's superior form and goal-scoring record, Latvia's defensive solidity and home conditions could see them secure all three points. Expect a closely fought match with limited goals and a few cards, totalling around four.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Latvia
No standout top scorers flagged for Latvia
Away — Montenegro
The verdict
While Montenegro enter this match with momentum, Latvia's determination and home advantage could tip the scales. The predicted 1-0 victory for Latvia is a cautious call reflecting the tight nature of this League C fixture. Fans should brace for a tactical battle where a single goal might be enough to decide the outcome.
Prediction generated 28 Sep 2026, 17:51 UTC · Fipster Model v1.162
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
FIFA world ranking
Adžić
Assist: Radunović
Savaļnieks
Černomordijs
Yellow Card
Adžić
Radunović
Janković
Osmajić
Uldriķis
Černomordijs
Krstović
Jovetić
Patijčuks
Zelenkovs
Strods
Assist: Čudars
Latković
Yellow Card
Match Statistics
Latvia
5-4-1Starting XI
- 3D. CirkinD
- 4O. VientiessD
- 5A. ČernomordijsD
- 6D. PatijčuksM
- 10L. VapneM
- 11R. SavaļnieksD
- 14A. CigaņiksM
- 15D. ZelenkovsM
- 20R. UldriķisF
- 21D. MeļņiksD
- 23R. MatrevicsG
Substitutes
- 1N. PuriņšG
- 2D. BalodisD
- 7E. DašķevičsF
- 8E. EmsisM
- 9V. GutkovskisF
- 12F. OrolsG
- 13R. JurkovskisD
- 16K. ČudarsM
- 17M. StrodsM
- 18A. AleksanjanM
- 19M. ToņiševsD
- 22A. SaveļjevsM
Montenegro
4-3-3Starting XI
- 1B. PopovićG
- 3R. RadunovićD
- 5I. VujačićD
- 6S. RubežićD
- 7M. VešovićD
- 8M. JankovićM
- 9N. KrstovićF
- 10S. JovetićF
- 17Vasilije AdžićM
- 20M. OsmajićF
- 22S. LončarM
Substitutes
- 2M. RoganovićD
- 4M. BrnovićM
- 11M. ŠimunM
- 12D. PetkovićG
- 13I. NikićG
- 14S. MilićD
- 15S. SavićD
- 16M. PerovićM
- 18A. LatkovićM
- 19V. ĐukanovićF
- 21A. BulatovićM
- 23D. VukovićF
Latvia
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Vapne | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| A. Cigaņiks | M | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | 2 | — | 3 | 1/1 |
| R. Matrevics | G | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Strods | M | 12 | 7.0 | 1 | — | 4 | 1 | — | — |
| O. Vientiess | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Meļņiks | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| R. Jurkovskis | D | 62 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| D. Zelenkovs | M | 78 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/2 |
| E. Dašķevičs | F | 25 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| D. Cirkin | D | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| V. Gutkovskis | F | 25 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| K. Čudars | M | 12 | 6.3 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| R. Uldriķis | F | 65 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| A. Černomordijs | D | 65 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Savaļnieks | D | 28 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Patijčuks | M | 78 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| E. Emsis | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Toņiševs | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Balodis | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Orols | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Puriņš | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Saveļjevs | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Aleksanjan | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Montenegro
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vasilije Adžić | M | 90 | 9.6 | 2 | — | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0/2 |
| R. Radunović | D | 60 | 7.5 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | — |
| S. Rubežić | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| M. Janković | M | 61 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Lončar | M | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| I. Vujačić | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Perović | M | 30 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| M. Vešović | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| M. Osmajić | F | 61 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 3 | 2/2 |
| M. Brnović | M | 29 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| A. Latković | M | 22 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/3 |
| D. Vuković | F | 12 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| B. Popović | G | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Jovetić | F | 78 | 6.3 | — | — | 4 | — | — | 1/1 |
| N. Krstović | F | 68 | 6.2 | — | — | 3 | 2 | — | 1/1 |
| V. Đukanović | F | 29 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| S. Milić | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Nikić | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Roganović | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Bulatović | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Petković | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Šimun | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Savić | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Latvia vs Montenegro?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Latvia to win against Montenegro.
- What score did Fipster predict for Latvia vs Montenegro?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Latvia 1–0 Montenegro.
- What were the win probabilities for Latvia vs Montenegro?
- Fipster's model gave Latvia a 35% chance of winning, Montenegro a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.