Larne vs Tre Fiori
- First leg:
- Tre Fiori 0 1 Larne
- Aggregate:
- Tre Fiori 1 3 Larne
- Advances:
- Larne
Match recap
Larne beat Tre Fiori 2–1 in their UEFA Champions League fixture. Ridley and Bent scored for Larne. Larne held 68% possession to 32% for Tre Fiori.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
1-2 Tre Fiori win
Actual
2–1
Outcome probability
The 1st Qualifying Round clash between Larne and Tre Fiori promises a competitive encounter, with both sides eager to make their mark early in the competition. Expect a tightly contested match where tactical discipline and key moments will decide the outcome.
Match factors
Larne's Midfielder D. Bent Shows Strong Scoring Form
D. Bent has scored 1 goal in 1 game this season, well above the league average midfielder scoring rate of 0.0858 per game.
R. Doherty's Assist Rate Exceeds League Midfielder Average
R. Doherty has 1 assist in 1 game, surpassing the league average midfielder assist rate of 0.0987 per game.
Larne's Set-Piece Threat from Defenders and Midfielders
Both M. Ridley and R. Doherty contribute offensively on set pieces, creating scoring and assist opportunities.
No Confirmed Injuries for Either Team
Both teams have full squads available, so no injury-related absences affect predicted scorers or assisters.
The context
Larne have played four matches in this competition so far, with a mixed record of two wins and two losses, scoring three goals but conceding ten. Tre Fiori, on the other hand, have struggled in their two appearances, losing both and scoring just once while conceding three. Historically, Larne have the upper hand in their head-to-head meetings, having won both previous encounters against Tre Fiori.
Key insights
D. Bent
Larne
D. Bent has scored 1 goal in 1 game this season, well above the league average midfielder scoring rate of 0.0858 per game.
UEFA Champions League 26/271 goal in 1 game, 90 mins played
R. Doherty
Larne
R. Doherty has 1 assist in 1 game, surpassing the league average midfielder assist rate of 0.0987 per game.
UEFA Champions League 26/271 assist in 1 game, 76 mins played
M. Ridley
Larne
M. Ridley scored 1 goal in 1 game, significantly above average defender scoring rate, and is a strong aerial presence on set pieces.
UEFA Champions League 26/271 goal in 1 game, 90 mins played
Analysis
Despite Larne's historical advantage and home form, the prediction leans towards an away win for Tre Fiori with a 2-1 scoreline. The aggregate probabilities strongly support this outcome, although the confidence is low due to limited data and missing standings. The halftime score is less predictable, with no clear favourite. Level after 90 minutes and Fipster expects extra time to settle nothing either — this one has penalty shootout written all over it, with Larne tipped to hold their nerve from the spot. The graded markets reflect the score at the end of extra time, and any penalty-shootout call is a who-goes-through tip, not a scored prediction.
Key facts
- 1.Larne have played 4 matches in this competition (W2 D0 L2, GF 3 / GA 10).
- 2.Tre Fiori have played 2 matches in this competition (W0 D0 L2, GF 1 / GA 3).
- 3.In 2 head-to-head meetings, Larne have won 2, Tre Fiori have won 0, with 0 draws.
- 4.M. Ridley scored 1 goal in this fixture, a key offensive threat for Larne.
- 5.The most probable full-time scoreline is 1-2 in favour of Tre Fiori.
- 6.Aggregate probabilities favour an away win at 0.768 compared to 0.207 for a draw.
- 7.No confirmed injuries affect either team for this fixture.
Prediction
Tre Fiori are expected to edge out Larne 2-1 in this opening round tie, overcoming the hosts with a late surge. Key players like Larne's M. Ridley, who poses a strong aerial threat, will be crucial, but Tre Fiori's resilience could see them through.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
The verdict
This fixture is set to be a close affair with Tre Fiori predicted to take the win despite Larne's home advantage and historical head-to-head success. Fans should brace for a tense match that could well be decided by penalties, highlighting the fine margins in early qualifying rounds.
Prediction generated 13 Oct 2026, 11:34 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Goal
Ridley
D'Addario
Yellow Card
Yellow Card
McKendry
Yellow Card
Unknown
Rea
Yellow Card
McKendry
Unknown
Unknown
Rea
Red Card
Rea
Yellow Card
Yellow Card
Bent
Penalty
Unknown
Unknown
Lusty
Graham
Unknown
Unknown
Red Card
Yellow Card
Yellow Card
Match Statistics
Larne
4-3-3Starting XI
- 1R. FergusonG
- 3M. RidleyD
- 4A. DonnellyD
- 6C. GallagherM
- 7C. McKendryM
- 11S. GrahamD
- 15R. DohertyM
- 23T. CosgroveD
- 26D. BentM
- 30M. LustyF
- 45M. GibsonF
Substitutes
- 2L. WallaceD
- 9P. O'NeillF
- 14B. MageeM
- 17J. UkekM
- 19K. O'Hara
- 22J. McEneffM
- 25D. SloanM
- 31D. CollettG
- 36Dylan GrahamG
- 47J. SimpsonM
Tre Fiori
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 2Alessandro D'Addario
- 3Mattia SancisiD
- 4Brando SamiM
- 5Simone ReaD
- 6T. SykuD
- 9M. PrandelliF
- 17M. NardiG
- 20F. BenedettiniM
- 24P. MengucciD
- 29R. BertaniM
- 76N. ManaraF
Substitutes
- 8L. CensoniM
- 10T. BernardiF
- 12Federico PesaresiD
- 16F. DolciniM
- 23Martín CascajoD
- 25A. CastagnoliG
- 27M. Ben Kacem
- 28Luca TerenziD
- 99Giulio PonticelliD
Larne
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Ferguson | G | 90 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Doherty | M | 76 | 0.0 | — | 1 | — | — | — | — |
| S. Graham | M | 80 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. O'Neill | F | 10 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Gallagher | M | 90 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Cosgrove | D | 90 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. McEneff | M | 32 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. McKendry | F | 58 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dylan Graham | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Lusty | F | 80 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Bent | D | 90 | 0.0 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Magee | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Ridley | D | 90 | 0.0 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Simpson | D | 10 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Tre Fiori
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Nardi | G | 90 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. D'Addario | D | 59 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Censoni | M | 7 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Sirri | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Dolcini | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Brando Sami | M | 90 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Simone Rea | D | 63 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Terenzi | M | 7 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Sancisi | D | 90 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Benedettini | M | 90 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Larne vs Tre Fiori?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Tre Fiori to win against Larne.
- What score did Fipster predict for Larne vs Tre Fiori?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Larne 1–2 Tre Fiori.
- What were the win probabilities for Larne vs Tre Fiori?
- Fipster's model gave Larne a 32% chance of winning, Tre Fiori a 35% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.