Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor
Kasımpaşa cruise past Samsunspor with ease
Arous shines with a brace as Kasımpaşa dominate 4-1 at home
Kasımpaşa secured a comfortable 4-1 victory over Samsunspor in the Süper Lig, with A. Arous starring by netting twice, including goals at 31' and 64'. Cláudio Winck and A. Benedyczak also contributed to the home side's tally, while T. Coulibaly offered a consolation for Samsunspor just before half-time. Fipster's low-confidence prediction of a narrow home win was on the money, though the margin was far more emphatic than expected.
Outcome probability
Kasımpaşa and Samsunspor face off in the eighth round of the regular season, with both sides eager to climb the league table. The fixture promises a tactical battle, with Kasımpaşa holding a slight edge in recent form and home scoring.
Match factors
Benedyczak's scoring form vs Samsunspor defense
Benedyczak's 4 goals in 6 games highlight his threat against a Samsunspor defense conceding 2.14 goals per game
Kasımpaşa's better home scoring and defense
Kasımpaşa averages 1 goal scored and 1 conceded at home, better than Samsunspor's away stats
Kasımpaşa's positive scoring streak at home
Kasımpaşa has scored in 2 of last 3 home games, showing attacking momentum
Samsunspor missing key attacker Fatih Kaya
Kaya is out with muscle injury, reducing Samsunspor's attacking options and scoring potential
The context
In their six previous encounters, Samsunspor have a slight upper hand with three wins to Kasımpaşa's two, and one draw. Currently, Kasımpaşa sit 6th in the league with five points from three games, while Samsunspor are 9th with four points. Matches between these sides tend to be moderately high scoring, averaging 2.5 goals per game.
Key insights
Adrian Benedyczak
Kasımpaşa
Benedyczak's 4 goals in 6 games highlight his threat against a Samsunspor defence conceding over 2 goals per game.
Süper Lig 26/274 goals in 6 appearances, 0.67 goals/game
- F
Fatih Kaya
Samsunspor
Kaya is out with a muscle injury, reducing Samsunspor's attacking options and scoring potential.
Süper Lig 26/271 goal in current season
Analysis
Kasımpaşa's attacking threat is spearheaded by Adrian Benedyczak, who has netted four goals in six appearances, boasting a strong scoring rate especially at home. Cláudio Winck's delivery from defence adds an extra dimension with his two assists. Samsunspor, missing key attacker Fatih Kaya due to a muscle injury, may struggle to find the net. Kasımpaşa's home form shows a positive scoring streak, having scored in two of their last three home games, while Samsunspor's away record is less convincing.
Key facts
- 1.Kasımpaşa rank 6th with 5 points from 3 games (W1 D2 L0).
- 2.Samsunspor rank 9th with 4 points from 3 games (W1 D1 L1).
- 3.In 6 head-to-head meetings, Samsunspor have 3 wins, Kasımpaşa 2, with 1 draw.
- 4.Head-to-head matches average 2.5 goals, with Samsunspor scoring more overall.
- 5.Kasımpaşa have scored in 2 of their last 3 home games.
- 6.Adrian Benedyczak is Kasımpaşa's top scorer with 4 goals in 6 games.
- 7.Fatih Kaya is out with a muscle injury, weakening Samsunspor's attack.
- 8.Kasımpaşa average 1 goal scored and 1 conceded at home, better than Samsunspor's away stats.
Prediction
The most likely outcome is a narrow 1-0 victory for Kasımpaşa, with the home side taking the lead by halftime and holding on to their advantage. The match is expected to be tight, with a total of around three cards issued, reflecting a competitive but controlled encounter.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Kasımpaşa
Away — Samsunspor
No standout top scorers flagged for Samsunspor
The verdict
While the margin is expected to be slim, Kasımpaşa's home advantage and attacking form give them the edge. Samsunspor will need to overcome their injury setbacks and defensive vulnerabilities to challenge the hosts. Expect a closely fought match with Kasımpaşa just about coming out on top.
Prediction generated 10 Oct 2026, 14:57 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Winck
Assist: Kol
Arous
Assist: Benedyczak
Coulibaly
Kılınç
Yellow Card
Afonso Sousa
Yellow Card
Goal Disallowed - offside
Arous
Assist: Rak-Sakyi
Çift
Øhlenschlæger
Benedyczak
Assist: Demirbay
Mendes
Yellow Card
Kol
Benedyczak
Demirbay
Rak-Sakyi
Karapo
Kayan
Coulibaly
Watt
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Galatasaray | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 7 |
| 5 |  Rizespor | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 6 |  Kasımpaşa | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 5 |
| 7 |  Başakşehir | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 4 |
| 8 |  Trabzonspor | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 |
| 9 |  Samsunspor | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 |  Alanyaspor | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
Match Statistics
Kasımpaşa
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1A. GianniotisG
- 2Cláudio WinckD
- 4A. ArousD
- 7A. KolM
- 9A. BenedyczakF
- 16A. BaldurssonM
- 17J. Rak-SakyiM
- 26K. DemirbayM
- 27M. IlieD
- 45A. KarapoD
- 51Elson MendesM
Substitutes
- 8A. MüjdeM
- 10H. HajradinovićM
- 11T. DiarraF
- 14K. MouangaD
- 18Ö. BayramD
- 19M. RaffertyM
- 25A. YanarG
- 30A. T. DagbasiD
- 50G. YalçınF
- 66E. BozM
Samsunspor
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1O. KocukG
- 2J. MendesD
- 4E. WattM
- 10T. CoulibalyM
- 11E. KılınçM
- 17L. TómassonD
- 18M. BayoF
- 19O. ØhlenschlægerM
- 20Y. KayanM
- 22Y. ÇiftD
- 34G. GuarinoD
Substitutes
- 3I. DrapińskiD
- 7E. TavşanF
- 8S. OnurM
- 16S. ErakovićD
- 23E. AlbakD
- 25B. BayazıtG
- 29H. TanD
- 30Saikuba JarjuF
- 42Y. SekongoM
- 77Afonso SousaM
Kasımpaşa
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adem Arous | D | 76 | 8.3 | 2 | — | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1/1 |
| Elson Mendes | M | 76 | 7.9 | — | — | 2 | 2 | — | 3/4 |
| Cláudio Winck(C) | D | 76 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Ayberk Karapo | D | 76 | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/2 |
| Matei Ilie | D | 76 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jesurun Rak-Sakyi | M | 76 | 7.3 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 5 | — |
| Ali Yavuz Kol | M | 76 | 7.2 | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1/3 |
| Kerem Demirbay | M | 76 | 7.2 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0/1 |
| Adrian Benedyczak | F | 76 | 6.3 | — | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Andri Fannar Baldursson | M | 76 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Andreas Gianniotis | G | 76 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Emirhan Boz | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Güven Yalçın | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ömer Bayram | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kevin Mouanga | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Haris Hajradinović | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ali Emre Yanar | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Atakan Mujde | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Thiemoko Diarra | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marcus Rafferty | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ahmet Taha Dağbaşı | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Samsunspor
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanguy Coulibaly | M | 76 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Elliot Watt | M | 76 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 3 | — |
| Emre Kılınç(C) | M | 45 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Mohamed Bayo | F | 76 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 2/3 |
| Okan Kocuk | G | 76 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yalçın Kayan | M | 76 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Josafat Mendes | D | 76 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yunus Emre Çift | D | 70 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Oskar Øhlenschlaeger | M | 70 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| Logi Tomasson | D | 76 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Gabriele Guarino | D | 76 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Bilal Bayazit | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Haluk Mustafa Tan | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Antoine Sekongo | M | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Enes Albak | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Igor Drapiński | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Samed Onur | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Strahinja Eraković | D | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Saikuba Jarju | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Elayis Tavsan | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Afonso Sousa | M | 31 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Kasımpaşa to win against Samsunspor.
- What score did Fipster predict for Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Kasımpaşa 1–0 Samsunspor.
- What were the win probabilities for Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor?
- Fipster's model gave Kasımpaşa a 37% chance of winning, Samsunspor a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 37% confidence — a low-confidence call.