Kairat Almaty vs Levski Sofia
Levski Sofia nicks narrow win at Kairat
Reinaldo's early strike secures a slender away victory in Almaty.
Levski Sofia edged out Kairat Almaty 1-0 thanks to an early goal from Reinaldo in the 13th minute. Despite Fipster's high-confidence prediction favouring a home win, Kairat couldn't find the net, making this a neat upset against expectations. A tight contest decided by a single moment of quality rather than the predicted home dominance.
- First leg:
- Levski Sofia 1 0 Kairat Almaty
- Aggregate:
- Levski Sofia 2 0 Kairat Almaty
- Advances:
- Levski Sofia
Outcome probability
The 3rd Qualifying Round clash between Kairat Almaty and Levski Sofia promises a tactical battle, with Kairat expected to leverage their home advantage and defensive solidity to edge out their opponents.
Match factors
Levski's key attackers show strong scoring form
Reinaldo has 2 goals in 1 game and Oko-Flex 1 goal in 1 game, indicating high scoring potential despite predicted loss
Kairat Almaty’s defensive solidity likely to limit Levski’s scoring
Kairat averages 0.5 goals conceded at home with 50% clean sheet rate, posing a tough challenge for Levski’s attackers
Levski’s scoring streak contrasts with Kairat’s mixed form
Levski has scored in 5 consecutive games, while Kairat’s recent form shows some inconsistency in scoring
No confirmed injuries for either team
Both teams have full squads available, so no impact expected from absences
The context
Kairat Almaty have recorded three wins and two losses in their last five matches in this competition, scoring five and conceding three goals. Levski Sofia, unbeaten in five with three wins and two draws, have netted nine and conceded three. The sides have met once before, with Levski Sofia taking the victory.
Key insights
Reinaldo
Levski Sofia
Reinaldo boasts a scoring rate well above the league average and is a key attacking threat for Levski Sofia, especially at home.
2 goals in 1 appearance, 75 minutes played
Álex Centelles
Levski Sofia
Centelles is an important set-piece contributor with a high assist rate for a defender, providing both defensive and offensive support.
1 assist in 1 appearance, 69 minutes played
A. Oko-Flex
Levski Sofia
Oko-Flex is a consistent scorer and creative presence in midfield, contributing above average goal involvement.
1 goal in 1 appearance, 68 minutes played
Analysis
Despite Levski Sofia's unbeaten run and impressive scoring streak, Kairat Almaty's home defensive record is likely to frustrate the visitors. Kairat concede an average of just 0.5 goals at home and keep clean sheets half the time, making it tough for Levski's attackers to find the net. The highest probability scoreline favours a 2-0 home win, with a halftime lead of 1-0. The predicted four cards suggest a competitive but controlled encounter.
Key facts
- 1.Kairat Almaty have a 3W 0D 2L record with 5 goals scored and 3 conceded in their last 5 matches in this competition.
- 2.Levski Sofia remain unbeaten with 3W 2D and have scored 9 goals while conceding 3 in their last 5 matches.
- 3.Levski Sofia won the only previous meeting between these two sides.
- 4.The most probable final scoreline is 2-0 in favour of Kairat Almaty, with a 1-0 halftime lead.
- 5.The match is expected to see around 4 cards, indicating a competitive encounter.
Prediction
We expect Kairat Almaty to take the lead by halftime and maintain control to secure a 2-0 victory. Their defensive discipline and ability to capitalize on scoring chances should see them through, despite Levski Sofia's attacking threats.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Kairat Almaty
No standout top scorers flagged for Kairat Almaty
Away — Levski Sofia
The verdict
Kairat Almaty look set to build on their home form and defensive strength to overcome Levski Sofia in this qualifier. While Levski's scoring prowess is notable, Kairat's resilience and tactical edge should prevail in a 2-0 result.
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Everton Bala
Yellow Card
Reinaldo
Assist: Everton Bala
Baybek
Yellow Card
Baybek
Kasabulat
Yellow Card
Kasabulat
Aldair
Yellow Card
Oko-Flex
Everton Bala
Aldair
Reinaldo
Gual
Serafimov
Yellow Card
Serginho
Yellow Card
Perea
Yellow Card
Match Statistics
Kairat Almaty
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1T. AnarbekovG
- 3Luís MataD
- 4D. KasabulatD
- 8O. BaybekM
- 13J. OksanenM
- 19O. JukkolaM
- 22Gustavo MendonçaM
- 24A. MrynskiyM
- 25A. ShirobokovD
- 28Marc GualF
- 44Lucas ÁfricoD
Substitutes
- 5L. KurginD
- 6A. SadybekovM
- 9EdmilsonF
- 15M. BirkurmanovF
- 17A. TuyakbayevM
- 20E. TapalovD
- 27M. AbishM
- 30D. BuchG
- 32A. NurgalievD
- 59D. TashpulatovD
- 81I. BekbolatF
- 82S. KalmurzaG
Levski Sofia
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 7ReinaldoF
- 11A. Oko-FlexM
- 17Everton BalaM
- 18G. TrdinM
- 19E. El MoubarikM
- 20Álex CentellesD
- 21AldairD
- 31N. SerafimovD
- 35SerginhoM
- 50K. DimitrovD
- 92S. VutsovG
Substitutes
- 1O. VladimirovG
- 2Hevertton SantosD
- 3MaiconD
- 4C. MakounD
- 9J. PereaF
- 10A. MitkovM
- 22M. SoulaF
- 27David KussoF
- 28S. StoyanchovF
- 77A. RaychevF
- 78M. LukovG
Kairat Almaty
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Áfrico | D | 93 | 7.5 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 2 | — |
| Oiva Jukkola | M | 93 | 7.3 | — | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1/1 |
| Jaakko Oksanen | M | 93 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0/2 |
| Marc Gual | F | 84 | 7.2 | — | — | 3 | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Aleksandr Shirobokov | D | 93 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| Damir Kasabulat | D | 64 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Aleksandr Mrynskiy | M | 93 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 1/3 |
| Gustavo Mendonca | M | 93 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Temirlan Anarbekov(C) | G | 93 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Olzhas Baibek | M | 45 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Luís Mata | D | 93 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Danila Buch | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mukhamedali Abish | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Adlan Nurgaliev | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Azamat Tuyakbayev | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sherkhan Kalmurza | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Daniyar Tashpulatov | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lev Kurgin | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Adilet Sadybekov | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Erkin Tapalov | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Edmilson | F | 29 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 3 | — |
| Mansur Birkurmanov | F | 9 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Ismail Bekbolat | F | 48 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
Levski Sofia
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Svetoslav Vutsov | G | 93 | 8.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Reinaldo | F | 83 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0/1 |
| Kristian Dimitrov(C) | D | 93 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gašper Trdin | M | 93 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/2 |
| El Mehdi Moubarik | M | 93 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Nikola Serafimov | D | 93 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Aldair | D | 79 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/6 |
| Álex Centelles | D | 93 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Armstrong Oko-Flex | M | 79 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Serginho | M | 92 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Everton Bala | M | 79 | 6.6 | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1/3 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Steven Stoyanchov | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ognyan Vladimirov | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| David Kusso | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Martin Lukov | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Asen Ivanov Mitkov | M | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Adrian Raychev | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Christian Makoun | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Maicon | D | 14 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Hevertton Santos | D | 14 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mazire Soula | F | 14 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Juan Perea | F | 10 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |